Category Archives: Collapse

UBS To Buy CS For $3 Billion As AT1 Bonds Get Wiped Out In Record Bail-In; Swiss Govt Grants CHF9BN Guarantee; SNB Offers $100 Billion Liquidity Backstop, by Tyler Durden

All the gory details. Credit Suisse is”lucky” its failure is at the leading edge. Long before this is over all the king’s horses and all the king’s men won’t be able to put busted banks back together again. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Update (1500ET): We finally have a deal, and what was at first a CHF1 BN acquisition priceof Credit Suisse by UBS, which then rose to CHF 2 BN, has now cranked up one final time to CHF 3BN (US$3.25 billion), or 0.76 per share, specifically shareholders of Credit Suisse will receive 1 share in UBS for 22.48 shares in Credit Suisse. As part of the deal, the Swiss National Bank is offering a 100 billion-franc liquidity assistance to UBS while the government is granting a 9 billion-franc guarantee for potential losses from assets UBS is taking over, i.e., this is a taxpayer-backed bailout.

More importantly, however, the bank’s entire AT1 tranche – some CHF16BN of Additioanal Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, a $275BN market – will be bailed in and written down to zero, to wit: “FINMA has determined that Credit Suisse’s Additional Tier 1 Capital (deriving from the issuance of Tier 1 Capital Notes) in the aggregate nominal amount of approximately CHF 16 billion will be written off to zero.

This wipe out, pardon, bail-in is the biggest loss yet for Europe’s $275 billion AT1 market, far eclipsing the approximately €1.35 billion loss suffered by junior bondholders of Spanish lender Banco Popular SA back in 2017, when it was absorbed by Banco Santander SA to avoid a collapse.

AT1 bonds were introduced in Europe after the global financial crisis to serve as shock absorbers when banks start to fail. They are designed to impose permanent losses on bondholders or be converted into equity if a bank’s capital ratios fall below a predetermined level, effectively propping up its balance sheet and allowing it to stay in business.

As Bloomberg notes, investors had been concerned that a so-called bail-in would result in the AT1s being written down, while senior debt issued by the holding company, Credit Suisse would be converted into equity for the bank.

In retrospect, they were right to be worried… meanwhile equityholders get CHF3 billion; we are confident Swiss pensions will be delighted they are getting a doughnut while the Saudis get a not immaterial recovery.

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“This Is It!” – Von Greyerz Warns “The Financial System Is Terminally Broken”

One Swiss banker is free of the idiocy afflicting many of his cohorts. From Egon von Greyerz at goldswitzerland.com:

The financial system is terminally broken, toast, kaput!

Anyone who doesn’t see what is happening will soon lose a major part of their assets either through bank failure, currency debasement or the collapse of all bubble assets like stocks, property and bonds by 75-100%. Many bonds will become worthless.

Wealth preservation in physical gold is now absolutely critical. Obviously it must be stored outside a broken financial system. More later in this article.

The solidity of the banking system is based on confidence. With the fractional banking system, highly leveraged banks only have a fraction of the money available if all depositors ask for their money back. So when confidence evaporates, so do the balance sheets of the banks and depositors realise that the whole system is just a black hole.

And this is exactly what is about to happen

For anyone who believes that this is just a problem with a few smaller US banks and one big one (Credit Suisse), they must think again.

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Is your bank “important” enough to save? Don’t count on it. By Mark E. Jeftovic

One quick indicator is to check and see how much your bank and its officials donated to Democrats. From Mark E. Jeftovic at bombthrower.com:

The Elites are bailing out their own banks, not yours

The systemic banking and financial crisis I’ve been warning about for years has arrived. (In fact, the report I put out in January seems to be playing out in spades).

The printing of 37 trillion dollars out of thin air over the pandemic widened the wealth inequality gap – and  they followed that up with the most drastic and rapid interest rate hiking cycle in Fed history.

What did they think was going to happen?

Now the banks are failing – Silicon Valley Bank went from passing its KPMG audit with flying colours and getting their debt rated “A” by Moody’s  mere weeks ago, to the executives frantically paying themselves bonuses and selling their shares in the hours and days before the bank failed and was taken over by the FDIC.

98% of the deposits in SVB were uninsured, meaning that those deposits wouldn’t shouldn’t have been covered by FDIC insurance. That means any accounts with balances above $250K were facing the loss of their funds.

But this is Silicon Valley Bank – this is where the elites place their bets on Silicon Valley unicorns. So we can’t have that.

In a hastily convened meeting between the FDIC, the Fed and the US Treasury, it was decided that all deposits would be covered, insured or not.

Crisis averted, right?

Wrong. It turns out that only SVB and Signature banks would be covered; if any other banks fail, like your bank, your community co-op in your hometown or state, or any other bank in flyover America far away from the Coastal elites – if they get into trouble (because people are moving their money into “protected” banks), then that’s not covered.

That’s tough titties for you.

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Fools’ Gold, by Robert Gore

When the slaves revolt, they will seek the blood of their masters.

In 2013, a century after the establishment of the Federal Reserve, I published The Golden Pinnacle. The novel’s hero is Daniel Durand, a Wall Street banker. Chapter 27, “Fools’ Gold,” features Daniel’s testimony in 1913 before a House of Representatives subcommittee against legislation under consideration that would establish the Federal Reserve. Eleanor is Daniel’s wife and Tom and Alexander are two of his four sons. As the current banking crisis unfolds, I won’t have much to say that will add in any meaningful way to what I said in “Fools’ Gold”. Why repeat myself? Perhaps I’ll just keep linking back to this post. Please share in whole or in part with attribution and a link back to this post.

From “Fools’ Gold”

Daniel sat at a table in a committee hearing room of the House of Representatives. The drafts crisscrossing the room carried the winter cold of February. There were few spectators in the gallery. Daniel glanced at Eleanor, who sat with Tom and Alexander, but she was staring in a different direction. Although she had wished him well, she had seemed preoccupied when they met briefly in the hall outside the hearing room.

Members of the subcommittee of the House Committee on Banking and Currency strolled to their seats, signs denoting the representative, at an elevated, semicircular panel at the front of the room. They chatted with each other. Nine representatives sat down. The chair for Representative Bulkley of Ohio remained empty. The chairman of the subcommittee, Representative Carter Glass, from Virginia, banged his gavel.

“The hearing in consideration of House Bill 7837, for the establishment of a federal reserve bank and the furnishing of an elastic currency, shall now come to order. The subcommittee will hear the testimony of Mr. Daniel Durand, from the firm of Durand & Woodbury, of New York.” Chairman Glass’s accent had an unmistakable Virginia lilt that reminded Daniel of Aldus Kincaid, his attorney for the court of inquiry. A dapper gentleman in his mid-fifties, Glass had prominent ears and a nose that filled a larger proportion of his face than the average nose filled of the average face.

“Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you, members of the committee,” Daniel said. “This legislation is still in its early stages and the details of the reserve system are the subjects of dispute. However, before everyone is enmeshed in them, it’s time to consider not just the purported benefits but also the real dangers of central banking and government-created money, or an elastic currency, if you will, and to ask if this supposed innovation is in the best interests of our country.” He glanced at his notes.

“A persistent misnomer is the term ‘bank deposit,’ which is not a deposit at all. If I take an item to a warehouse and pay a fee to deposit it for safekeeping, when I exercise my contractual rights and claim it, the owner of the warehouse must give it back to me. The owner can’t lend it out, use it to secure a loan, or give it to another depositor to satisfy his claim. On the other hand, when I put my money in a bank, the banker can lend or invest it, use those loans and investments as collateral to borrow money, or use my funds to pay creditors or other depositors. I haven’t deposited my money in the same sense that I deposited the item at the warehouse.

“My deposit is actually a loan and I’m an unsecured creditor of the bank. Much of the instability of the present system stems from a fiction. The respectable bank is housed in a neoclassical fortress and prominently displays a sturdy vault, to convince the depositor his money is safe. In fact, almost all his money leaves the bank in search of a return higher than the interest the bank pays him. Only a small portion is held in reserve to meet depositor withdrawals, although all depositors are told they can withdraw their money on demand.

“The bank has made a promise that it can’t always keep. Business and financial cycles are as immutable as human nature. When famine follows feast and fear replaces greed, the demand for money inevitably increases. The banker faces his worst nightmare—a run on the bank. Banks with sufficient reserves or borrowing power survive. Those without them go bankrupt.”

Daniel looked up at the representatives. Only a couple appeared interested.

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The Death of Culture: How Lies Killed Books, by Dr. Naomi Wolf

There’s no such thing as state-sponsored or state-approved literature; it’s all state-sponsored or state-approved crap. From Dr. Naomi Wolf at naomiwolf.substack.com:

A Visit to Hipster Brooklyn

I recently came home from a visit to Hipster Brooklyn.

I had found that Brooklyn — alongside literary Manhattan — was oddly frozen in an amber of denial and silence.

First, there is that restored state of freedom, that no one will discuss.

I’d wandered the cute little boîtes and trendy underground hand-pulled-noodle postmodern food courts, with mixed emotions.

There were the chic young moms with babies in strollers, both of them breathing freely in the chill just-before-Spring air. There were slouching Millennials, with every demographic likelihood of having been mask-y and COVID-culty, now enjoying their freedom to assemble at will, to flirt and to window-shop, to stroll and to chat and to try on new sweaters in person at Uniqlo.

Many of these folks, no doubt, would have been repelled from 2020 to the present, by people like my brothers and sisters in arms, and by me; as we struggled in the trenches of the liberty movement.

Some of them may have called us anti-vaxxers, extremists, insurrectionists; selfish, “Trumpers,” or whatever other nonsense was the epithet of the day.

Some of them may have wanted to lock down harder, and lock us down harder.

My brothers and sisters in the freedom movement, though we lost employment, savings, status and affiliations, fought every day — for these very folks; we fought for everyone; we fought so that some day, these young moms could indeed stroll with their babies, breathing fresh air; so that these slouching millennials could one day indeed wander at will, not “locked down” still, not “mandated” any longer, and not living in fear of an internment camp.

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Why the Bank Crisis Is Not Over, by Michael Hudson

The bank crisis has barely started. From Michael Hudson at unz.com:

The crashes of Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and its related bank insolvencies are much more serious than the 2008-09 crash. The problem at that time was crooked banks making bad mortgage loans. Debtors were unable to pay and were defaulting, and it turned out that the real estate that they had pledged as collateral was fraudulently overvalued, “mark-to-fantasy” junk mortgages made by false valuations of in the property’s actual market price and the borrower’s income. Banks sold these loans to institutional buyers such as pension funds, German savings banks and other gullible buyers who had drunk the neoliberal Kool Aid believing with Alan Greenspan that banks would not cheat them.

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) investments had no such default risk. The Treasury always can pay, simply by printing money, and the prime long-term mortgages whose packages SVP bought also were solvent. The problem is the financial system itself, or rather, the corner into which the post-Obama Fed has painted the banking system. It cannot escape from ts 13 years of Quantitative Easing without reversing the asset-price inflation and causing bonds, stocks and real estate to lower their market value.

In a nutshell, solving the illiquidity crisis of 2009 in a way that saved the banks from losing money (at the cost of burdening the economy with enormous debts), paved away for the deeply systemic illiquidity crisis that is just now becoming clear, although I cannot resist that I pointed out its basic dynamics already in 2007 and in my 2015 book Killing the Host.

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Bailout Arrives: Credit Suisse To Borrow $54BN From SNB To “Pre-emptively Strengthen Liquidity”, by Tyler Durden

The EU banking system is in worse shape than the U.S. banking system and Credit Suisse is the EU poster child. For the disturbing details, put Alasdair Macleod in the SLL search function and start reading. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Summary: 

  • Saudis fold – refuse to throw any more money at Credit Suisse
  • Credit Suisse stock hits record low
  • Credit Suisse 1Y CDS explodes as counterparty risk hedging soars
  • Credit Suisse execs urged a “show of confidence” from the Swiss National Bank
  • ECB quantifying exposures to Credit Suisse
  • US Treasury monitoring situation, talking with other regulators
  • Fed working with UST to quantify exposures
  • One major govt is pressuring Swiss to intervene
  • Systemic risk threat spreads globally
  • Swiss authorities seeking to stabilize bank
  • Swiss National Bank and Finma issue statement of support
  • Credit Suisse said it’s planning to borrow from the Swiss National Bank up to CHF50 billion under a covered loan facility.

Update (21:00ET): And so, the “bailout” arrives just a few hours before the Europe open, Credit Suisse said it’s planning to borrow from the Swiss National Bank up to CHF50 billion ($54 billion) under a covered loan facility which is “fully collateralized by high quality assets”. It wasn’t immediately clear what high quality assets CS has left to pledge but in a time of BTFP, we are confident they found something. 

The bank also announced  offers by Credit Suisse International to repurchase certain OpCo senior debt securities for cash of up to about CHF3 billion, which will help the bank pick up a few pennies in bond discount, even as it faces tens of billions in deposit flight.

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Funny Things Happen on the Way to “Restoring Financial Stability”, by Charles Hugh Smith

This is not funny “ha-ha.” From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

We can also predict that the next round of instability will be more severe than the previous bout of instability.

Everyone is in favor of “doing whatever it takes” to “restore financial stability” when the house of cards starts swaying, but funny things happen on the way to “Restoring Financial Stability.” Whatever “emergency measures” are rushed into service to “stabilize” an inherently unstable system resolve the immediate problem but opens unseen doors to new sources of instability that eventually trigger another round of systemic instability that must be addressed with more “emergency measures.”

These unintended consequences proliferate as policy extremes are pushed to new extremes, and “emergency measures” become permanent sources of the very instability they were supposed to eliminate.

As @concodanomics recently observed on Twitter: “A major flaw of finance is that it nearly always mutates the very instruments meant to protect investors into crisis-inducing time bombs.”

Another major flaw in finance is the self-serving pressure applied by politically influential players to “enable innovation,” a.k.a. new opportunities for skims and scams. The usual covers for these “innovations” are 1) deregulation (“growth” will result if we let “markets” self-regulate) and 2) technology (generating guaranteed profits by front-running the herd is now technically possible, so let’s make it legal).

Broadening the pool of punters who can be skimmed and scammed is also a favored form of financial “growth” and “innovation.” “Democratizing markets” was the warm and fuzzy cover story for enabling everyone with a mobile phone to dabble in risk-on gambles with margin accounts (cash borrowed against a portfolio of stocks).

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What Happens When the Government Breaks Its Own Laws? By Andrew Napolitano

When the answer is nothing, the nation collapses. From Andrew Napolitano at lewrockwell.com:

Five members of the Proud Boys are currently on trial for sedition in federal court in Washington, D.C. Sedition is a conspiracy to overthrow the federal government by the use of force. This case stems from the events of Jan. 6, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol. During the trial, an FBI agent inadvertently admitted that she was asked to doctor and to destroy evidence, and that her colleagues have spied on defense lawyers in the case.

The Department of Justice has pursued the defendants in Jan. 6-related matters with much zeal. The current Proud Boys trial, however, exceeds anything that has recently been revealed.

Here is the backstory.

A conspiracy is an agreement by two or more persons to commit a crime that they are able to commit in which at least one of those who embraced the agreement took at least one step in furtherance of it.

Prosecutors love conspiracy cases because they are easy to prove. Yet, every modern definition of crime includes an element of harm. Since conspiracy is essentially a thought crime, the courts have dispensed with the element of harm. Stated differently, the government needs only prove the existence of the agreement and the single step in furtherance of its consummation. The government need not prove harm.

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Unsound Banking: Why Most of the World’s Banks Are Headed for Collapse, by Doug Casey

The banking system is set up to fail. From Doug Casey at internationalman.com:

Bank collapse

You’re likely thinking that a discussion of “sound banking” will be a bit boring. Well, banking should be boring. And we’re sure officials at central banks all over the world today—many of whom have trouble sleeping—wish it were.

This brief article will explain why the world’s banking system is unsound, and what differentiates a sound from an unsound bank. I suspect not one person in 1,000 actually understands the difference. As a result, the world’s economy is now based upon unsound banks dealing in unsound currencies. Both have degenerated considerably from their origins.

Modern banking emerged from the goldsmithing trade of the Middle Ages. Being a goldsmith required a working inventory of precious metal, and managing that inventory profitably required expertise in buying and selling metal and storing it securely. Those capacities segued easily into the business of lending and borrowing gold, which is to say the business of lending and borrowing money.

Most people today are only dimly aware that until the early 1930s, gold coins were used in everyday commerce by the general public. In addition, gold backed most national currencies at a fixed rate of convertibility. Banks were just another business—nothing special. They were distinguished from other enterprises only by the fact they stored, lent, and borrowed gold coins, not as a sideline but as a primary business. Bankers had become goldsmiths without the hammers.

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