Tag Archives: birthrates

In the fantasy world of Europe’s powers that be, declining birth rates would be offset by migration from the Middle East and Africa. It hasn’t worked out as planned. The migrants have few skills, don’t know the languages, and often prefer to live off European welfare states rather than contribute to them. From Gefira at gefira.org:

The ongoing euro crisis has never been and will never be solved. The native European populations are shrinking and this will have a consequence for the economy, production and public finance. The demographic decline is the single most important economic phenomenon. We do not doubt that the annual visitors to the Global Economic Forum in Davos are fully aware of it: they know that the European and East Asian populations are decreasing and that 18 of the 20 top economies will never experience sustainable growth again. The economic press and mainstream analysts somehow do not get it and still believe that countries that will see their native population shrinking by 30% in the next thirty years can increase their GDP.

Italy is the next epicenter of the demographic crisis. The ongoing euro problems and the orchestrated mass migration into Italy are closely related. Italian population began to dwindle last year, a situation that has never happened in modern history. Without immigration, the Italian working-age population will drop by at least 30% before the middle of the century. If the productivity does not change and even if the Italians are able to balance their budget, the consequences are unsolvable.

The Italian GDP will be smaller and smaller in proportion to the fall in the number of the working-age population. Every working-age person in Italy is burdened with a sixty-thousand-euro public debt and that amount will grow on average by nearly a thousand euros a year because more people are leaving the working force than entering. The debt to GDP ratio will be 200 percent by mid-century. We did not yet factor in the outflow of young people that are looking for employment in other European countries.

This scenario gives a good indication of the problem Italy faces. In the coming years it is expected that the productivity will go up, but the same holds good for the national debt which increased by 15 percent since 2012. All Western economies have arrived at the point where productivity has to compensate for the decline in their populations. Italy is the world’s ninth economy and is on a trajectory that in the long run will end in an economic implosion comparable to the 1998 financial crisis in Argentina, number 21 on the world GDP list.

To continue reading: Italy and the euro cannot be saved by mass-immigration