The financial threat looks like a sure thing, and the military threat is not far behind. From Egon von Greyerz at goldswitzerland.com:
The world is today confronted with two nuclear threats of a proportion never previously seen in history. These threats are facing us at a time when the world economy is about to turn and decline precipitously not just for years but probably decades.
The obvious nuclear threat is the war between the US and Russia which currently is playing out in Ukraine.
The other nuclear threat is the financial weapons of mass destruction in the form of debt and derivatives amounting to probably US$ 2.5 quadrillion.
If we are lucky, the geopolitical event can be avoided but I doubt that the explosion/implosion of the Western financial timebomb can be stopped.
More about these risks later in the article.
There is also a summary of my market views for 2023 and onwards at the end of the article.
CURIOSITY AND RISK
With a business life of over 52 years in banking, commerce and investments, I am fortunate to still learn every day and learning is really the joy of life. But the more you learn, the more you realise how little you really know.
Being a constant and curious learner means that life is never dull.
As Einstein said:
“The important thing is not to stop questioning.
Curiosity has its own reason for existing.”
There has been another important constancy in my life which is understanding and protecting RISK.
I learnt early on in my commercial life that it is critical to identify risk and endeavour to protect the downside. If you can achieve that, the upside normally takes care of itself.
Sometimes the risk is so clear that you want to stand on the barricades and shout. But sadly most investors are driven by greed and seldom see when markets become high risk.