Tag Archives: Trade

America 2.0, by Robert Gore

Let’s assume everything collapses. The skyscraper of cards tumbles; parasitic, unsustainable governments fail; chaos reigns. For all its flaws, living today, especially for those of us in the more advanced economies, is a lot easier than during any prior time. As late as 1900 US life expectancy was less than fifty years. However, there are reasons to root for collapse; it would present a huge opportunity to keep the good parts of the present age and build upon them, while at the same time changing the things that will have been manifestly responsible for the collapse, i.e., the incompetence and corruption of governments. However, to avail ourselves of the opportunities, it is necessary to consider what will replace that which has failed. SLL will kick off the process with a few modest proposals.

Freedom: The lodestar of what emerges must be individual freedom. History’s greatest quandary has been how to secure the fruits of production—essential to the survival of the producer and the species—to those who produce it. Government started as a protection racket; some production was diverted to it in exchange for safety from theft and violence, both internal and external. The danger of this arrangement is obvious: governments become the most rapacious criminals. How does a society protect itself and its property not just from criminals and invaders, but from its own government?

The sad fate of the US Constitution demonstrates that any founding principle or document can be perverted and corrupted. However, a building is better with a blueprint than without. The foundational principle, stated clearly in a new and improved Constitution, must be that individual freedom and the protection of individual rights and liberties are paramount. The corollary: the government shall be subordinate, its duty to use its monopoly on initiatory force to secure and protect those paramount rights and liberties and nothing else. Obviously, many details will have to be worked out, but the standard libertarian formulation of government limited to police, judicial, and military functions captures the basic idea. Will power-seekers try, and eventually succeed, in subverting a new Constitution? Probably, but nobody has figured out how to cure human nature’s malignancies. Clean slates get dirty, but at least they start out as clean.

Voting: The founders envisioned a republic, not a democracy, which they abhorred as mob rule. History has proven them right. Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what’s for dinner. An arrangement that might stop people from voting other people’s means for their own ends is to restrict the franchise to those who receive no money from the government, either directly or indirectly. Politicians, government employees, including the military, and contractors and their employees would not vote. What politician is going to pander to a bloc that cannot vote? The ban on voting would only be in effect while an individual receives money from the government, a sacrifice required for “public service.” The government under this set of proposals will be a shadow of its current behemoth self—the voting prohibition will apply to a very small percentage of the population. This is admittedly an extreme proposal. If you have something less extreme that will keep the productive citizenry from being turned into lamb chops, please submit it in the Comments section below.

Involuntary redistribution: There shall be none, no government-provided anything other than the military, police, and courts. Nothing the government provides through coercion cannot be provided better by free individuals, businesses, and markets. Much of what the government provides shouldn’t be provided at all. This seems fanciful now, but will seem much less so after the government goes broke. There will be no problem of fulfilling legacy promises to those counting on goodies from the government; those promises will have already been broken.

Defense: Defense will be limited to the defense of US territory: no allies, no “interests,” no Pax Americana. Military action will be limited to wars duly declared and specified (no more open-ended wars) by Congress within a short period after the first hostilities. The US enjoys the greatest geopolitical blessings of any nation in history. To the east and west lie the Atlantic and Pacific moats. To the north and south are friendly, militarily weaker nations. It has the world’s largest and most advanced economy, huge raw-material-extraction and industrial capabilities, a formidable arsenal of conventional and nuclear weapons, a well-armed populace that includes millions of potential guerrilla fighters, and a host of geographically inhospitable features—mountains, deserts, rivers, lakes, forests, swamps, and always tough urban environments. Even the contemplation of invasion amounts to insanity, which is why nobody has tried for two centuries. A US military limited to defense of the US could be funded for a fraction of what is spent now.

Money and debt: Historically, governmental mismanagement of money and debt has caused more misery than any other activity, save war, in which they engage. Logically, there is no reason why governments have to be involved with money issuance. They are almost always hostile to privately-developed money because they accrue economic advantages through money issuance: monopoly control of the medium of exchange; legal tender laws that mandate acceptance of their money and debt; the seignorage privilege of being the first user of money or debt, and inflation, the hidden tax of depreciating exchange value that non-first users bear (for a more extensive discussion, see “Real Money,” SLL, 9/9/15).

The estimated 96 percent depreciation of the dollar since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913, and its deterioration from a unit freely convertible to gold to one freely convertible only to another paper dollar, cinches the case that the government should be barred from any monetary role at all. Such depreciation is the rule, not the exception, when governments and their allied central banks control monetary issuance. The alternative? Let the market decide on acceptable money or monies. Undoubtedly it will choose money that holds its value. Along the same lines, the enslavement of future generations engendered by issuing debt must be severely circumscribed, perhaps only permissible upon a declaration of war; limited to the duration of the war, with redemption within a few years after the war.

Funding: The funding requirements of the new regime will be minuscule compared to what the government takes in now, probably less than 10 percent of the GDP, compared to the present 40 percent (for local, state, and the federal government). Not only will the revenue numerator be much smaller, but the GDP denominator will be much larger as the newly unshackled economy makes a joke of today’s 2 percent (if that much) growth rates. The income tax, one of the most pernicious thefts ever invented, will be abolished. Government revenue will come from the imposition of non-income based fees, taxes, and assessments. You might be able to fund this government just by passing the hat to newly unshackled, grateful producers. A fee could be charged on all contracts that parties agree are to be enforced in government courts (although nobody will be required to use government courts for contractual dispute resolution). A per capita flat fee could be accessed for the national defense and police. Excise taxes could be levied on imported goods; they were the chief source of funds for the federal government prior to imposition of the income tax. Most public lands would be sold off, and the proceeds could be held in a trust that will throw off revenues to the government.

Trade and immigration: Freedom is freedom, and that means free trade and open borders. Free trade doesn’t mean the current managed trade snuck under cover of agreements labelled “Free Trade.” Real free trade can be instituted by any nation in a sentence or two that prohibit tariffs or trade barriers for the goods and services of any foreign entity exporting to the US market, except perhaps for excise taxes, applied at a uniform rate regardless of the country of origin. Free trade redounds to the benefit of any nation that practices it, regardless of whether or not any other nation does so.

Immigration is most problematic for welfare states with shrinking or barely growing economies. Welfare states attract immigrants looking for freebies, and even those looking for work are demonized for taking “scarce” jobs from citizens. There will be no government handouts or benefits in America 2.0, and the newly freed economy is more likely to suffer from labor shortages than surpluses. That was certainly the case during the booming Industrial Revolution, the heyday of American immigration. The new wave of immigrants will be looking for their piece of the American pie through hard work and eventual assimilation, just as previous waves—up until elements of the current one—have.

These proposals are meant not as immutable proposals, but to prompt those of us who anticipate a dramatic change from the current “way things are” to think and discuss beforehand the “way things ought to be.” We can’t let a once-in-many-generations opportunity slip away for lack of intellectual preparation for it.

A NOVEL SET WHEN AMERICA 1.0 WORKED

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How Beijing and the West Work Together to Manipulate the Global Currency War, by Brendan Brown

From Brendan Brown at mises.org:

From reading the commentaries you might have imagined that the process of a currency winning international reserve status depends on getting the IMF seal of approval. At least that seems to be the story with China.

So, strange to tell, the great international monies of the past evolved either before the IMF was created or without its help. Think of the Deutsche mark and Swiss franc — the two upstarts of the 1970s and 1980s — or briefly the Japanese yen when it enjoyed great popularity. Their emergence was due to the path of monetary stability chosen by their issuing authorities together with complete freedom from restrictions.

So why is the world of currency diplomacy now playing along with the nonsense of the IMF examining whether the Chinese yuan has met the criterion to become a reserve currency?

Incidentally, the last time that Washington body bestowed “reserve currency status” it was with respect to the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, on the eve of the bust for the respective commodity and carry trade bubbles which sent them to their respective skies.

Beijing and DC Pick the Winners and Losers

The question as to why the Western world is playing along with the official Chinese currency charade is part of a more general point. Why do Western governments pursue non-market trade diplomacy so enthusiastically with Beijing?

Think of the repeated times that Chinese communist party dictators traveled to a particular Western capital to hand out their list of chosen beneficiaries of Chinese corporate (mostly state) spending. These dictators were welcomed by fawning officials and bureaucrats who assured us that they also brought up, with muted whispers and inaudible comments, the problem of human rights to their guest.

And, by the same token, why are there high profile visits of Western leaders to China, presenting their own list of chosen industrialists selected to pick up the new business deals? This is not the way free markets, and global free trade, in particular, is meant to work.

If it smells like a rat it probably is a rat, and so it is with respect to these deals by collusion between China and Western governments, and their chosen corporate protégés, whether on currency or trade or investment matters. This is all an exercise in some combination of crony capitalism (with cronies on both sides!) and diplomacy by stealth. The gains and gainers are deliberately kept opaque. The losers are much less evident than the gainers, on whichever side of the fence, but principle and practice tells us that the total losses are much larger than the gains.

To continue reading: How Beijing and the West Work Together to Manipulate the Global Currency War

The TPP and the Trade Rhetoric, by Carmen Elena Dorobăț

From Carmen Elena Dorobăț at mises.org:

After 19 rounds of negotiations spanning 5 years, hosted along the Pacific Rim from Bali and Lima to Hanoi and Hawaii, the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) was signed yesterday in Atlanta by all 12 member governments and remains only to be ratified by each country. Although the text has not been made available to the public, and will not be for the next four years to avoid opposition, the TPP is publicized as a tremendous boost in free trade for the signing countries, and thus for almost 40% of world trade. It is supposed to ‘promote’, ‘enhance’, and ‘support’ many things, from innovation to investment and development, and job creation.

The language used, characteristic now of all such governmental agreements, is a clear indicator that the TPP is nothing more than additional thousand(s) of pages of new trade regulations, with a sprinkling of tariff reductions that will benefit some industries and companies, and hurt others. According to the Office of the Unites States Representative, the TPP includes chapters on no fewer than 22 issues: “competition, co-operation and capacity building, cross-border services, customs, e-commerce, environment, financial services, government procurement, intellectual property, investment, labour, legal issues, market access for goods, rules of origin, sanitary and phytosanitary standards, technical barriers to trade, telecommunications, temporary entry, textiles and apparel, trade remedies.”

This illustrates what Ludwig von Mises pointed out half a century ago: that the focus of these agreements has long shifted from trade liberalization (defined as removal of barriers) to trade regulation (or what we know today as “managed trade”) and the promotion of special interests. As Mises showed, “each country has a system of varying privileges for individual interest groups… [and] none of these measures would work if foreign countries were to freely supply the domestic market.” (Mises to Hoenig, letter dated December 6, 1951). Trade agreements only extend the regulatory power of governments and their ability to grant such privileges.

To continue reading: The TPP and the Trade Rhetoric

Double-Digit Imported Deflation, by Lakshman Achuthan

To his credit, Lakschman Achuthan of ECRI, has been warning of the declining trend of US economic growth and the deflationary dangers of debt for several years, while most economists were talking up inflation. From Achuthan, at econintersect.com:

Six years ago – the last time global import price deflation was this intense – the worst global recession in decades was ending. A key question today is whether recession risks have mounted in the U.S. or any other major economy.

Earlier this year, year-over-year (yoy) world import volume growth dropped to its lowest readings since 2009. Today, it remains in a decisive downturn and near May’s five-and a-half-year low, a far cry from the surge that followed the global recession. Clearly, after years of extraordinary policy stimulus around the globe – aimed at pulling demand forward from the future – world trade growth has collapsed.

Even worse is the nosedive in yoy import price growth, which has been exhibiting double-digit deflation since the beginning of the year (bottom line). Indeed, the only other time on record the world has seen such intense import price deflation was during the global recession.

Certainly, the fall in crude oil prices has played a role more recently. But the world import price level peaked in April 2011, and dropped by 18% over the next four years. So this is not just about the plunge in oil prices over the past year or so.

In fact, in the U.S., yoy growth in import prices excluding petroleum has been in negative territory since the end of last year, and is now near readings not seen since the fall of 2009 (not shown).

To continue reading: Double-Digit Imported Deflation

The Seventh-Largest Economy in the World Spirals Down, by Wolf Richter

BRICS may soon mean Bankrupt, Ruined, & Insolvent, Creditors Screwed. The B in the tradition BRICS formulation, Brazil, with its natural resource based economy that isdependent on China’s (the C in BRICS) economic health, is on the leading edge of debt deflation and depression. Throw in a huge scandal at state oil company Petrobas, the expense of hosting the 2016 Olympics, broken promises to fix Rio de Janeiro’s decrepit sewage systems in time for next year’s games, and a president who is getting less than 10 percent approval ratings, and things are looking bleak. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

HSBC, which knows a thing or two about the world, and about Brazil, is bailing out of Brazil.

It’s unloading its “entire business in Brazil,” it said this week, including retail banking and insurance. It will hand its long list of wealthy clients and over 21,000 employees to Bradesco, one of the largest private banks in Brazil, for $5.2 billion. Too much? Bradesco’s stock has since plunged over 9%.

Once the deal gets regulatory approval and closes, HSBC is out of Brazil. “The transaction represents a significant step in the execution of the actions announced during the Investor Update on 9 June 2015,” it said. After that update, Reuters had described HSBC’s motivations with these choice words:

For shareholders, betting on Brazil was risky as lenders grapple with tax hikes, weak credit demand, rising defaults, and the impact of what looks likely to be the country’s worst recession in over two decades.

The seventh largest economy in the world in 2014, according to the World Bank, is spiraling down, with private sector output, as Markit put it, falling at the “sharpest pace since March 2009.”

This is how Markit titled its Brazil Services PMI report on Wednesday: “Service sector activity drops at joint-fastest rate in survey history.”

The index hit 39.1 in July (50 is the dividing line between contraction and expansion), the fifth month in a row of contraction, with all sub-sectors in the survey “registering substantial falls in business activity.”

To add to the toxic mix, costs soared, with the rate of increase reaching an 81-month high, third fasted in survey history, due to “inflationary pressures, exchange rate factors, and client fee adjustment.” No green shoots in the immediate future: new orders fell for the fifth month in a row. The “deteriorating operating environment” caused the pace of job losses to accelerate “to a survey record.”

Some companies still nurtured glimmers of hope: 29% of them expected activity to be higher in one year, based on the notion that the economy would somehow recover “in the coming months.”

This gloomy report on the service sector came on the heels of Markit’s Manufacturing PMI report, which had inched up to a less dreadful 47.2 in July, but remained “among the lowest since 2011, reflecting a slumping economy.”

There too were some glimmers of hope, such as the “stabilization” of export orders and slower rates of declines in some categories, but mostly it was unadulterated gloom:

“Brazil’s manufacturing slump extended to July.” New orders and production were in contraction for the sixth month in a row, “with tough economic conditions being widely cited by survey respondents.” Companies tried to control their ballooning costs by shedding jobs.

To continue reading: The Seventh-Largest Economy in the World Spirals Down

 

Ten Indications Iran Wants Business, Not Bombs, by Charles Glass

It is conceivable that one or two Iranians do not want to destroy the Great Satan or rule the Middle East, especially among the young. As the article suggests, some of them may just want to find good jobs in a healthy economy, raise families, and enjoy the good things life has to offer, both from Iran and from trade with other countries. Those crotchety old men that seem to be the universal representation of Iran in the US media, especially the political cartoons, may not speak for the entire nation, or represent its aspirations. From Charles Glass at Who, What, Why, via davidstockmanscontracorner.com:

There are two Irans. One wants bombs. One wants business. Business Iran, for the moment, is on top. The big bomb goes on ice, and American and European trade comes back. After all, it’s only business. In Iran, even senior clergy are businessmen and have the millions to prove it. Iranians have at least ten reasons to go along with the agreement. They are:

ONE. Iran’s accord with the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) will end the sanctions imposed in 2006 under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1737. The sanctions have crippled Iran’s economy, and pressure to end them is widespread.. A friend of mine, who grows pistachios, a major export, wrote to me recently: “I think if you look at Iran’s development in the last few years, it looks very much like its economic and business interests have surpassed its obsession to prove to the world that it is capable of working on nuclear weapons. Double digit inflation and unemployment and low levels of production and inadequate investment have forced [Ayatollah] Khamenei to reevaluate his priorities. The election of a pro-western president [Hassan Rouhani] shows that the country needs to open up to the world and attract foreign investment. A healthier economy will provide a happier population and greater power and respect in the long run.” The farmer represents growing sentiment in Iran that opening the economy to world trade can help prise the country from the clergy’s iron grip.

TWO. Despite the shouts of “Death to America” in the increasingly unenthusiastic demonstrations periodically orchestrated by the government, Iranians love Americans. They are about the only people on earth who do. Look at Iraq and Afghanistan, whose people have hated Americans at least since America invaded them. Or South America, where countries over the last dozen years have repeatedly defied Yankee domination. Or the Arab world, where Americans are more likely to be kidnapped than invited home for coffee. Why do Iranians love Americans? For one thing, most have not seen any real Americans since 1979. Young people don’t remember the thousands of American military advisors with diplomatic immunity and the intelligence agents who guided the Iranian secret police, the much-hated SAVAK, in suppressing dissent. On my visits to Iran before the revolution, animosity towards Americans was ubiquitous. Since the revolution, Iranians have lavished hospitality on me because I was American. Of course, when thousands of American tourists descend on the country that could change; tourists of any kind wear out their welcome fairly quickly.

THREE. American businesses and Iran have already jumped into bed, like a couple who can’t wait for the wedding night. With sanctions still in place, dozens of trade delegations have flown to Tehran. The Iranian oil minister invited seven major US oil companies to return to Iran two years ago, and an oil delegation turned up in Tehran last May. A month earlier, Iran welcomed twenty-two American entrepreneurs, investors and consultants, and the Iranian hosts impressed the visitors with their openness and expertise. In July, the “Iran-EU Conference on Trade and Investment” met in Vienna, where hundreds of business people from all over Europe showed up to stake a claim to the Iranian market.. The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple is discussing ways to sell iPhones and open Apple Stores in Iran. Boeing is ready to supply spare parts for the commercial airliners the Shah of Iran bought before he was deposed in 1979. If Congress approves, Boeing might begin selling airplanes as well. When an Iranian friend was complaining about conditions in her country, I joked, “At least, you don’t have McDonald’s.” She replied, “But we want McDonald’s. It’s terrible, but it would mean we are normal.”

To continue reading: Ten Indications Iran Wants Business, Not Bombs

World Trade Drops Most Since Financial Crisis, by Wolf Richter

The economy is fine, really. Keep buying those stocks. Prosperity is just around the corner. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

Maybe we shouldn’t take our daily corporate samples too seriously. Maybe they don’t adequately represent the global economy. So IBM’s revenues last quarter plunged 13% from a year ago. It blamed China and the dollar, among other culprits. But IBM’s revenues have dropped for 13 quarters in a row. It’s a normal IBM condition and not a reflection of the global economy.

A whole slew of other tech companies chimed in with either disappointing revenues or disappointing outlooks, or both, each blaming a variety of issues, among them China and the dollar. Chip maker Qualcomm just reported a 14% plunge in its quarterly revenues. It’s having trouble in the smartphone market and will lay off a bunch of people. But maybe they’re just running into tougher competitors, rather than a lousy global economy. And the PC business, which is cratering, is dragging down all those involved. That’s structural and has little to do with the state of the global economy.

Then there’s industrial giant United Technology which reported that its revenues last quarter dropped 5%. Today Caterpillar reported that global machine sales plunged 15% in June compared to a year ago, after having dropped 12% in May and 11% in April, In Asia, machine sales plunged 19%, in Latin America 50%. And in booming North America? Down 5%, after having been up for the prior two months.

So CAT is facing Japanese, Chinese, and German competitors. It’s having to slug it out with them in China precisely when China is slowing. So it may be just CAT that’s having a hard time.

But don’t look at energy. Energy is getting clobbered….

So maybe we’re cherry-picking negative data. There are companies with actual revenue increases and positive outlooks, like Equifax, the credit bureau, which just reported a 10% jump in revenues (14% “in local currency,” as it says). Consumer borrowing is king, and Equifax expedites the process.

So what the heck is going on?

Turns out, global trade during the quarter and during the first five months of the year experienced the sharpest drop-off since the Financial Crisis.

The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, just released its latest Merchandise World Trade Monitor, which covers global import and export volumes. It was dreary.

To continue reading: World Trade Drops Most Since Financial Crisis

Trading Places, 6/27/15

The US and Europe are adopting the model that Russia, China, and India are discarding. The failure of command and control is writ large across the twentieth century—culminating in the collapse of the Soviet Union and upheaval and transition away from the Maoist model in China—and the first fifteen years of the twenty-first. The Western nations are not yet totalitarian nightmares and Russia, China, and India are not libertarian paradises and may never be so. What is important, however, for real-time analysis as history unfolds, is to recognize the direction and magnitude of incremental moves at the margin, which yields the conclusion that the latter are moving away from statism while the former increasingly embrace it. Not only do these trends have important geopolitical implications, they suggest an investment strategy far different, and far more profitable, than the one most Western investors, individuals and institutions, currently employ.

Command, control, and coercion are incompatible with human nature and thus, immoral. They don’t work for animals—ask anyone who trains them—how can they work for presumably more intelligent (perhaps a questionable presumption) humans? Stated plainly, the proposition that some individuals have the right to initiate coercion against other individuals is as indefensible as it sounds. However, centuries of convoluted political philosophy have attempted to justify that proposition without stating it so plainly, usually by ascribing to governments “rights” that their citizens do not have.

Debt, welfare state spending, and foreign military interventions have taken Europe and the US to the edge of a precipice, but they’re doubling down on further state control. The US has a comparative economic advantage in the Internet and online technologies, which will slowly ebb as the FCC, now empowered to treat the Internet like a utility, starts treating the Internet like a utility (see “The Net Neutered,” SLL, 2/17/15, and “Obamanet Shows Its Fangs,” Wall Street Journal, 6/22/15). Obamacare promises to further America’s slide into the slow, no, or negative economic growth mode that has plagued most of Europe for decades. It’s already promoting consolidation and centralization among insurance companies and medical care providers, the antithesis of free market decentralization, innovation, and competition.

As Greece blows up, European officials have decided the problem with the EU is too little command and control. They are calling for less national sovereignty and more power for the supranational European institutions (“Presenting The New Plan For A Eurozone Superstate—Curly, Larry And Moe,” davidstockmanscontracorner.com,). The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has launched a campaign to ensure that its 34 members—most of the developed nations—don’t lower tax rates to attract businesses. The OECD envisions, and the Obama administration has endorsed, a regime in which multinational companies would have to disclose extensive information about their activities so that they could be taxed based on the location of their economic activity and “value creation” (see “1000s Of American Jobs Could Be Lost If This…,” SLL, 6/23,15), obviously a costly administrative nightmare. Lurking within the thousands of pages of the three trade agreements under consideration is undoubtedly more such “harmonization,” not just of taxes, but regulations and benefits as well (see “Trust Me, Charlie Brown,” SLL, 6/16/15).

Meanwhile, in what Sir Halford Mackinder called in 1904 the “Heartland” of the “World Island”—the Euro-Asian area encompassing Russia, Turkey, the Middle East, and Asia, which he argued was the fulcrum of world power—its nations are exploiting their latent potential and moving away from the unipolar world of US design (see “Washington’s Great Game and Why It’s Failing,” SLL, 6/8/15). With large percentages of the world’s population, land mass, and resources, Euro-Asia, led by the Chinese, is developing linkages, building infrastructure, and propelling itself forward. A new Silk Road initiative will resurrect and modernize the storied trade route traversed by Marco Polo. Petroleum pipelines and high-speed rail lines are being built between Russia and China.

Importantly, Russian-Chinese petroleum transactions will be denominated in yuan and rubles, not dollars. Petrodollar recycling—based on the dollar’s status as the reserve currency—has been an important prop for US global dominance. Across southeast Asia, China is financing and helping construct ports, roads, power plants, dams, and other transportation, trade, and industrial infrastructure. It is also providing seed funding for multilateral lending institutions, notably the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank, which will be a counterweight to US and European-dominated institutions like the IMF and World Bank (see “America’s European “Allies” Desert Obama, Join China-led Infrastructure Bank,” SLL, 3/17/15).

It is improbable that the Euro-Asian ascendancy presents a threat to US security, but it certainly does to the tenaciously held dream of US global dominance. China and Russia want to be the dominant powers in Euro-Asia. While that dominance has a military aspect, it will be exercised primarily through political alliances and economic development. The latter, especially, will redound to the benefit of resource-rich Russia and people, ingenuity, and capital-rich China. Their stance towards the Middle East is instructive. They have avoided the military forays that have so disastrously entangled the US. They have supported their allies, primarily Syria and Iran, in international forums and consummated opportunistic investment, energy, and arms deals. If a nuclear agreement is reached with Iran, Russia and China will rapidly expand their ties with what has historically been a dominant power in the Middle East and Iran will become an important partner in the Euro-Asian development effort.

Notwithstanding hyperventilating US politicians, it is hard to believe that either the Chinese or the Russians have offensive military designs beyond securing what they regard as their spheres of influence. They are not that stupid. The military cost curve has shifted dramatically and they know it. The costs in treasure and blood of invasion and subjugation are many orders of magnitude greater than the costs of resisting it, as the US should have learned in Vietnam and the Middle East, and as Russia apparently did in Afghanistan.

The farther away that attempted invasion and subjugation, the greater the cost disparity. Thus, if the US insists on confronting Russia in Ukraine or China in the South China Sea, it will be at a massive disadvantage. The notion that the US, which hasn’t subjugated Afghanistan after fourteen years or Iraq after twelve, could take on Russia or China on their own doorsteps is a howler. If that has been grasped by some in the Washington brain trust, it has not prompted a consensus to avoid such confrontation. Rather there have been moronic murmuring on deploying nuclear weapons. Let’s hope the brain trust is not that stupid, but it’s not a safe bet; all the surprises the last few decades have been to the downside.

While humanity as a whole makes three steps forward and two steps back, it’s never in lockstep. The Euro-Asian nations are stepping forward; the US and Europe are stepping back. To reiterate a theme SLL has sounded repeatedly (most recently, “Buy Asia; Short the US and Europe,” SLL, 2/3/15), the Euro-Asian nations will be the predominate source of long-term investment opportunities. As the last few months in China have demonstrated, there will be volatility both up and down, but longer-term, the Euro-Asia nations will far outperform the US and Europe. They have the land, resources, and people, and most importantly, they are minding their own business, promoting economic development while the US and European nations are encumbered with debt, increasingly powerful and bureaucratic national and supranational governance, and US-led foreign military intervention.

The emergence of Euro-Asia presents multitudinous opportunities from which Western governments and companies could benefit. Sadly, until those governments, especially Washington, abandon antediluvian policies based on projected power and subjugation, those opportunities will not be realized. Fortunately, nothing stops individuals from investing and profiting from the emerging Euro-Asian colossus. If your financial advisor doesn’t have a good handle on investments there, find one who does.

WHEN THE WORLD’S BEST INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES WERE IN THE UNITED STATES

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He Said That? 6/12/15

President Obama personally appealed to Democratic representatives not to vote against a job-retraining bill. They rejected the appeal and voted against the bill, defeating it. This puts a big crimp in Obama’s and Congressional Republicans’ hopes of passing a bill to “fast track” three trade bills. From Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore.:

He’s ignored Congress and disrespected Congress for years, and then comes to the caucus and lectures us for 40 minutes about his values and whether or not we’re being honest by using legislative tactics to try and stop something which we believe is a horrible mistake for the United States of America, and questions our integrity. It wasn’t the greatest strategy.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CONGRESS_TRADE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-06-12-14-15-05

This is from a Democratic representative. Something about things that go around eventually coming around comes to mind. For more on the trade legislation, see “Paul Ryan Channels Pelosi on the TPP – You Have to Pass Obamatrade to See What’s in Obamatrade,” SLL, 6/11/15