Tag Archives: China

U.S. Supremacy by Any Other Name, by Alastair Crooke

The Biden administration is repackaging standard U.S. foreign policy. The box is different but the contents are the same. From Alastair Crooke at strategic-culture.org:

The world balance has changed qualitatively, and not just quantitatively, Alastair Crooke writes.

Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum two weeks ago, General Milley conceded that ‘America’s century’ is over – a long overdue acknowledgement, most might venture. Yet, belated or not, his saying it nonetheless seemed to signal an important strategic shift: “We’re entering into a tri-polar – world with the U.S., Russia and China being all great powers. [And] just by introducing three versus two you get increased complexity”, Milley said.

More recently, in a CNN interview Jake Sullivan, Biden’s Security Adviser, said that it had been a mistake to try to change China: “America is not seeking to ‘contain’ China: it’s not a new Cold War”. Mr. Sullivan’s remarks come a week after President Biden said the U.S. was not seeking “physical conflict” with China, despite rising tensions – “this is competition”, Biden said.

This indeed seemed to signal something important. But is it, though? This use of the word ‘competition’ is a tad curious as terminology, and requires a little unpacking.

CNN interviewer, Fareed Zakaria, asked Sullivan: So what is it, after all your ‘tough talk’, that you have been able to agree with China; what has been negotiated? One might imagine a response outlining how best Biden thinks to manage these competing interests in a complex tri-polar world. Well, that wasn’t Sullivan’s retort. “Wrong metric”, he said flatly: Don’t ask about bilateral agreements – ask about what else we have secured.

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Afghanistan: Between Pipelines and ISIS-K, the Americans Are Still in Play, by Pepe Escobar

You didn’t really think the U.S. government was actually getting out of Afghanistan, did you? From Pepe Escobar at unz.com:

Something quite extraordinary happened in early November in Kabul.

Taliban interim-Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov got together to discuss a range of political and economic issues. Most importantly, they resurrected the legendary soap opera which in the early 2000s I dubbed Pipelineistan: the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline.

Call it yet another remarkable, historical twist in the post-jihad Afghan saga, going back as far as the mid-1990s when the Taliban first took power in Kabul.

In 1997, the Taliban even visited Houston to discuss the pipeline, then known as TAP, as reported in Part 1 of my e-book Forever Wars.

During the second Clinton administration, a consortium led by Unocal – now part of Chevron – was about to embark on what would have been an extremely costly proposition (nearly $8 billion) to undercut Russia in the intersection of Central and South Asia; as well as to smash the competition: the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline.

The Taliban were duly courted – in Houston and in Kabul. A key go-between was the ubiquitous Zalmay Khalilzad, aka ‘Bush’s Afghan,’ in one of his earlier incarnations as Unocal lobbyist-cum-Taliban interlocutor. But then, low oil prices and non-stop haggling over transit fees stalled the project. That was the situation in the run-up to 9/11.

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Is the Russia-China strategic partnership turning into a military one? By Ted Snider

It would be more surprising if that partnership didn’t evolve towards a military alliance. From Ted Snider at responsiblestatecraft.org:

In October, Russia and China conducted a week-long joint naval patrol — their first such exercise in the Western Pacific.

Five Russian and five Chinese warships sailed through the international waters of the Tsugaru Strait, which separates the main island of Japan from its northern island of Hokkaido, to “maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region,” and to “demonstrate the state flags of Russia and China,” according to the Russian defense ministry. The Chinese defense ministry added that the joint exercise was also meant to “further develop the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era, enhance the joint action capabilities of both parties and jointly maintain international and regional strategic stability.”

But what is this “new era” comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and China?

The second cold war

Both Russia and China were reluctant to enter the new era they find themselves in. At the close of the Cold War, Russia had hoped for a new, cooperative post-Cold War world. Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent Richard Sakwa says that, at the close of the Cold War, Russia wanted to transcend the blocs and divisions, but America insisted on preserving them. Russia wanted to join a transformed international community freed of blocs and made up of equal partners who cooperated with each other; America offered Russia only an invitation to join an enlarged American-led community as a defeated and subordinate member. It took Putin about 14 years to give up the transformational vision and accept the reality of the second cold war. By 2012, Russia had realized that the only option America offered was losing the Cold War, not ending it. By 2014, Russia had abandoned what Sakwa calls “its last cold peace inhibitions.”

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Why Do Some American Sinophobes Seem To Want a US-China War, And Are Doing Their Damndest To Set One Up? by Tom Fowdy

A war with China wouldn’t be smart even if the US could win, which is problematic. From Tom Rowdy at RT News via lewrockwell.com:

If you don’t want a military conflict with China, then don’t encircle it, provoke it and wilfully misunderstand its motives. Beijing is not seeking world domination, but the continuing rejuvenation of its nation.

Two hawkish American academics, Michael Beckley and Hal Brands, have been relentless in their anti-China op-eds over the past few weeks. In a number of publications, including Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy and now The Atlantic, as well as spin-offs on Bloomberg, their pieces all strike a very similar pessimistic tone, that the prospect of a US war with China is becoming more likely as the so-called “strategic window” which Beijing has to establish itself as a global power is closing.

The latest piece argues that in lieu of these goals and a changing geopolitical context, China is a “revisionist state” that is preparing to resort to war in order to seal its territorial claims, dominate East Asia and then move onwards to the world.

Using the historical precedent of how China has utilized force to respond to potential fear of encirclement from foreign powers, including the Korean (1950-53), Indian (1962) and Sino-Vietnamese (1979) wars, the pair argue that Beijing, fearing a new encirclement and on seeing a narrowing window for its goals, may respond forcefully to seal its stakes on Taiwan or islands in the South and East China seas, and that it has less economic incentive for peace than it has had in the past four decades.

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Frogs Slow-Boiling in Their Pans, by Alastair Crooke

Talking loudly while unwilling to wield anything but rhetorical sticks is not a winning foreign policy strategy. From Alastair Crooke at strategic-culture.org:

The rules-based liberal order was always, in part, an illusion – albeit one that gripped much of the world, for a period of time.

George Kennan’s famous 1946 ‘long telegram’ from Moscow was primarily a piercing analysis of the inherent structural contradictions within the Soviet model, leading to its analytical conclusion that the USSR would ultimately collapse under the weight of its own flaws. That was written just over seventy years ago.

Others have tried their hand: Just four weeks after the Biden inauguration, ‘The Longer Telegram’ – an essay written by an anonymous former senior government official, advocating for a new American China strategy – was published to great accolade. Kennan’s original, however, was a profound appraisal of how the Soviet Union functioned (or didn’t), and from which had flowed Kennan’s prediction that ultimately the Soviet system would implode. It was enough to have patience.

This contemporary Longer Telegram however, is an imposter posing as a profound appraisal – in the Kennan mode – whereas in reality, it is a stale repetition of the mainstream U.S. interventionist playbook, albeit one targeting China (as opposed to Iran, though its methodology is the same). It misleadingly has been sold under a ‘Kennan’ label. It makes the case how to engineer implosion: Action, in lieu of patience. It is unlikely that history will treat this recent telegram kindly.

Nevertheless, profound structural contradictions threatening systemic dissolution abound – and are a cause of severe anxiety to many today, who wonder how the future all will unfold, and query whether they will somehow survive as structural dynamics grind noisily away, generating overheated politics.

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Taiwan Means War Only If We Want It To, by Peter Van Buren

Despite a lot of fear to the contrary, China probably won’t invade Taiwan, for reasons that have a lot to do with Chinese culture and history. From Peter Van Buren at theamericanconservative.com:

Part Two of a two-part essay arguing the Taiwan question says more about the U.S. than China.

Part One

The United States and China will not go to war in our time over Taiwan. China is not engaging in provocative actions leading toward an invasion. So why the fuss?

Part One of this essay covered why China has nothing to gain, and given nuclear weapons, literally everything to lose. But however impractical an invasion might be, how unnecessary, or how risky, hasn’t China declared repeatedly it will reunite with Taiwan?

Yes. But if you want to cite Chinese propaganda as evidence of actual intent, it is best to pay attention to the details.

It was the United States itself that most clearly asserted the shared tripartite goal was reunification, declaring, with deliberate ambiguity as part of its diplomatic break with Taiwan, “there is only one China and Taiwan is a part of it.” Chinese President Xi regularly reiterates reunification as a goal, but always stresses the process is historical—as in, it is inevitable but we need to be patient, so don’t wait up for it to happen; the last revolution took 300 years to start—and must be peaceful. Sorry, if you’re going to quote Chinese propaganda statements as proof of intent, you can’t cherrypick only the scary parts. It makes no sense to trust Xi on the plan but to claim he and every previous Chinese leader has been lying about the peaceful execution in the same breath.

Not by coincidence, most of these reunification proclamations occur around important political holidays. One of Xi’s recent invocations was in a speech marking the 110th anniversary of the Xinhai 1911 Revolution, which overthrew the foreign Manchu Qing dynasty. The occasion was important, because Xinhai, ideologically midwifed by Dr. Sun Yat-sen, is acknowledged by both the most hardcore Communists and the most fervent Nationalists as the common origin point for modern China. This is drilled into every schoolkid on both sides of the Strait and forms a common vocabulary among their diplomats. The point is to understand Xi’s remarks in the same context as a Chinese person, not Rambo.

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Bumbling Menace Blinken Says Taiwan Should Join the UN, by Andrew Anglin

The Biden administration’s primary foreign policy strategies are bluff, threats, and humiliation. The rest of the world is quite tired of it. From Andrew Anglin at unz.com:

Like every individual in the Biden Administration, the bumbling menace Antony Blinken stumbles from weird event to ensuing weird event.

His latest strange and confounding behavior is asserting the claim that the false country of Taiwan should join the UN.

What the Biden Administration is doing is the equivalent of poking China with a stick.

RT:

After the US secretary of state claimed Taipei’s accession to the UN would be pragmatic, Beijing hit back, reiterating that Taiwan should not be granted permission to join the body because the island was part of China.

Speaking on Wednesday, Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing told reporters the UN was an international governmental organization made up of sovereign states – and Taiwan wasn’t one.

“Taiwan is a part of China,” Ma stated, adding, “Taiwan has no right to join the United Nations.”

The spokesman’s comments came after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Tuesday marking 50 years since the UN General Assembly voted to replace Taipei’s seat with Beijing’s that he regretted Taiwan’s absence.

Blinken said the reason the island’s participation in the UN would be welcomed was not political but pragmatic. “As the international community faces an unprecedented number of complex and global issues, it is critical for all stakeholders to help address these problems. This includes the 24 million people who live in Taiwan.”

The statement is not political or pragmatic – it’s a provocation.

This is what the plan is, apparently: the Biden plan to “contain China” is a bullying harassment campaign.

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China and the Monroe Doctrine: What’s Good for the Goose Is Good for the Gander? By Doug Bandow

Notwithstanding the Monroe Doctrine, the Chinese are making themselves at home in Latin and South America. From Doug Bandow at antiwar.com:

Nearly two centuries ago President James Monroe ordered the world’s powers to stay out of the Western Hemisphere. The still young American republic, which lacked a serious navy or army, thereby compounded the hubris of its earlier claim to be creating a novus ordo seclorum, or new order for the ages.

Although among the states targeted by Monroe, the United Kingdom turned out to be America’s greatest ally in deterring intervention by other powers. London had the world’s finest navy and wasn’t inclined to encourage competing powers’ imperial ambitions. Moreover, Latin America never was an arena of great power conflict. The European wars after Napoleon’s defeat focused on Europe, not more distant colonial territories.

In its naked form the Monroe Doctrine was shamelessly self-interested. Said Monroe: “We owe it, therefore, to candor and to the amicable relations existing between the United States and those powers to declare that we should consider any attempt on their part to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety.” Notably, the U.S. was little concerned about the “peace and safety” of other residents of the region.

Franklin Delano Roosevelt claimed to change direction with the Good Neighbor policy, which emphasized nonintervention and noninterference. However, that pretense did not long survive. During the Cold War the US was active, militarily as well as economically and politically, throughout Latin America. Officially, little has changed since.

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Taiwan Is Not About China, by Peter Van Buren

Other than for rhetoric and ego, which can’t be dismissed out of hand, why would China invade Taiwan? From Peter Van Buren at theamericanconservative.com:

China and Taiwan know how to coexist, but the American defense establishment wants an enemy. Part One of a two part series.

The United States and China will not go to war over Taiwan. China is not engaging in provocative actions leading toward an invasion. So why the fuss?

I’d prefer to let the argument speak for itself, but my background is relevant. As a U.S. diplomat, I served in Taiwan, Beijing, and Hong Kong, as well as Korea and Japan, and speak a bit of all their languages. Many of my former colleagues, who managed their careers better, now hold senior positions in the Department of State’s China and East Asian bureaucracies. I certainly don’t speak for them, but I do speak to them.

America has always been China’s fickle partner. A WWII ally, the U.S. backed away in 1949 after Mao took power. Then, in the midst of the Cold War, Nixon “opened” China and the place was remade into a friendly bulwark against the Soviets. In 1979 the U.S. diplomatically recognized Beijing and unrecognized Taipei. The U.S. and China then grew into significant trading partners until sometime during the Obama years, when China, without a clear precipitating event, morphed again into an adversary (the U.S. called it a pivot toward Asia). Trump and Biden have since upgraded China to a direct threat. Biden has said, “On my watch China will not achieve its goal to become the leading country in the world, the wealthiest country in the world, and the most powerful country in the world.”

Along the way China has always stayed pretty much the same. It’s our fear of the same China that changes.

U.S. fears are mostly bunk. Take for example the boilerplate articles about Chinese “incursions” into Taiwan’s air space. Chinese aircraft are not flying over Taiwan. They are flying within Taiwan’s self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Look at a map of that zone, and others declared by Japan and China. Taiwan’s zone, the one Beijing is flying in, actually is large enough to cover thousands of miles of the Chinese mainland itself; PLA planes are in violation when sitting on their own runways.

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Will Biden Start Nuclear War with China Over Taiwan? By Ron Paul

Biden might think he’s pressing a button to summon his staff and accidentally trigger a nuclear war, or he might start one on purpose. You never know with old Joe. From Ron Paul at ronpaulinstitute.org:

President Biden’s “townhall” meeting this past week was a disaster. From his bizarre poses to the incoherent answers, it seemed to confirm America’s worst fears about a president we are told was elected by the most voters ever. Though he didn’t bother campaigning, we are to believe he somehow motivated the most voters in history to pull the lever in his favor. Or mail in a ballot in his favor. Or something.

After the townhall, the Wall Street Journal was early among mainstream media publications to observe that the emperor has no clothes. In an editorial titled “The Confusing Mr. Biden,” the paper wrote, “Even with a friendly audience and softball questions, Mr. Biden’s performance revealed why so many Americans are losing confidence in his Presidency.”

The Journal focused on one of the most shocking and disturbing revelations from the carefully crafted event: asked by CNN’s Anderson Cooper if the United States would come to the defense of Taiwan should it come under attack by the Chinese mainland, he replied, “Yes, we have a commitment to do that.”

Anderson threw him another softball in hopes he might correct this dangerous misstatement, but Biden was not nimble enough to see his gaffe. He doubled down.

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