Category Archives: Money

Doug Casey on Why Gold Has Stagnated… and What Investors Can Expect Next

What investors in gold, as opposed to speculators, can expect next from gold is that will continue to be the reliable storehouse of value that it’s been for many centuries. From Doug Casey at internationalman.com:

International Man: Doug, you’ve been a strong proponent of gold for many years—specifically physical gold as a savings vehicle.

How do you view physical gold today?

Doug Casey: I continue to view gold mainly as a vehicle for savings. It’s money in its most basic form. Banks and governments fail, paper currency has always been a joke, and the forthcoming Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are criminally dangerous, possibly the worst innovation of all time. Anyone who doesn’t have a significant part of his assets in gold coins will be an unhappy camper.

But, first of all, gold is not an investment. An investment is an allocation of capital that produces new wealth. That’s not the nature of gold or any commodity.

Occasionally, gold can also be an excellent speculation. Since it was disconnected from the dollar in 1971, it’s had some spectacular runs. But it’s primarily a vehicle for savings. I’ve been buying it since it was about $40 an ounce. I’ve just accumulated more and never liquidated. It’s treated me quite well, having run from $40 to, at the moment, $1,650.

It’s a good speculation during monetary and economic crises. That’s because it’s the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously somebody else’s liability. You don’t have to trust in the goodwill of your rulers. Indeed, it allows you to automatically profit from the fact that they’re usually incompetent and dishonest.

In a world that’s head over heels in debt, where governments and central banks are bankrupt and printing up their national currencies by the trillion, owning gold is more important than ever.

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Imploding credit — the consequences, by Alasdair Macleod

Keynesian economics says you can’t have inflation and recession (or depression) simultaneously. The real world says different. Alasdair Macleod explains. From Macleod at goldmoney.com:

There is a growing realisation that the world faces a combination of persistent inflation of prices and a recession at the same time. The factors driving both are visibly intensifying. Those of us versed in the cycle of bank credit are aware that it is the contraction of bank balance sheets which is driving the recession, while it is continuing currency debasement driving inflation.

Neo-Keynesians in the establishment think the current position is contradictory, that current rates of price inflation will decline back to their 2% target in a recession, and interest rates can then be reduced to stimulate economic activity. 

The key to understanding why prices can continue to rise in a recession requires a fuller understanding of the role of credit in an economy and what it represents. Its role is far greater than commonly thought, with considerably more than several quadrillions of dollar equivalents outstanding. All economic activity and wealth are credit. This article sketches out the various types of credit, and how credit equates to our collective wealth.

It also requires us to differentiate between a currency which is anchored to gold specie and one without a specie anchor. The former imposes a discipline on the state of non-intervention, while the latter encourages intervention. It is that intervention which leads to fiat currencies and all credit based upon it finally collapsing.

The importance of credit

That the monetary authorities do not understand credit might seem unbelievable. But evidenced by their actions, it is the only explanation for their mistakes. Clearly, as well as credit they don’t understand the importance of money, having banished gold from its role of anchoring the purchasing power of credit. The vested interest of replacing gold with currency, to obtain for governments the benefit of unfettered debasement, is ignored or forgotten by today’s state-educated economists and commentators. Disregarding what drove the dollar off the Bretton Woods standard in the first place, the establishment in the broadest sense can no longer distinguish between credit and legal money.

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The Top 3 Outcomes As the Elites Try To Reset the International Monetary System, by Nick Giambruno

All monetary roads eventually lead to gold, and perhaps Bitcoin. From Nick Giaumbruno at internationalman.com:

Reset the International Monetary System

It’s self-evident the fiat currency system centered on the US dollar is self-destructing at an alarming rate.

After more than 50 years, it’s long past the end of its shelf-life, like a carton of spoiled milk.

Even the elites running the system can see that and are openly talking about what they’d like to see come next.

That’s why there’s all this talk about a “reset” as the current international monetary system falters.

The way I see it, there are three possible outcomes.

Outcome #1: Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) replacing the US dollar as the world’s new reserve currency. This is the elites’ preferred outcome.

Outcome #2: A reluctant re-monetization of gold. Central bankers don’t want to go back to gold, but they will have no choice if their fiat system collapses, forcing their hands.

Outcome #3: Bitcoin is the wild card. A Bitcoin standard could spontaneously emerge regardless of what the elite want. Bitcoin is an entirely new asset people are adopting as money because of its superior monetary properties, notably its total resistance to inflation.

It’s good to keep Bitcoin’s long-term monetization trend in mind. However, both gold and Bitcoin will likely do very well in the short and medium-term as fiat currencies lose value.

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CBDCs, SDRs, and the Re-Monetization of Gold, by Nick Giambruno

Banks and central banks relentlessly debase their fake money, they are setting the stage for the return of real money, gold. From Nick Giambruno at internationalman.com:

Central bank digital currencies

The current monetary system is on its way out.

Even the central bankers running the system can see that.

That’s why they are preparing for what comes next as they attempt to “reset” the system.

It’s important to emphasize that nobody knows what the next international monetary system will look like—not even the elites. However, they know what they want it to look like and are working hard to shape that outcome.

Next, I’ll examine their preferred outcome.

Plan A: CBDCs and SDRs

The new international monetary system the central bankers would prefer involves central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) replacing the US dollar as the world’s new reserve currency.

Despite all the hype, CBDCs are nothing but the same fiat currency scam with a new label on it—and zero privacy. They will make it even easier for the government to inflate the currency, and that’s what I expect them to do if they impose CBDCs on us.

However, it’s doubtful CBDCs can save otherwise fundamentally unsound currencies—as I believe all fiat currencies are.

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History Repeats: Abandoning Sound Money Leads to Tyranny and Ruin, by Jp Cortez

You can tell all you need to know about a country by the quality of its money. Fiat debt instruments whose usage must be compelled via legal tender laws are pure garbage, the last resort of corrupt and dying governments. From Jp Cortez at soundmoneydefense.org:

Money is one of the most misunderstood topics of our time, and we’re seeing the implications of this play out every day.

To understand money, one first must first understand that human beings have always been incentivized to participate in exchange. If humans could not, or did not, trade, the majority of people would die young: whether by starvation, disease, or exposure to the elements.

The survivors would be left with an extremely low standard of living; not a world any of us would want to live in. This means that exchange is a necessary condition, not only of our economy, but of human flourishing.

Origins of Money

Before there was money, there was barter (also known as direct exchange) – a system in which every good is traded directly against every other good.

A small island economy could function this way: a couple of coconuts traded for fishing line, or a bushel of bananas in exchange for bamboo with which to build a shelter.

As Tho Bishop from the Mises Institute illustrates, imagine that a farmer wants to buy a pair of boots, so he visits the town cobbler and tries to trade a dozen eggs in exchange. However, the cobbler in town doesn’t want eggs. The cobbler might want beef, but the farmer isn’t willing to slaughter his cow for boots.

A trade where both parties are happy is now difficult. It’s easy to see how unmanageable this system is as populations grow, and as needs and wants expand.

Let’s revisit our farmer: Instead of offering eggs, he realizes that what the cobbler really wants is butter. So he goes out and trades for butter, and then uses that butter to trade for boots. If enough people also want butter, our farmer may buy more—not to use it, but to exchange it for other goods and services. This is called indirect exchange.

Many goods throughout history, with varying degrees of effectiveness, have filled the role of “butter.” Salt, wampum, and tobacco have all been used as money, just to name a few. However, gold and silver emerged as universally accepted monies by the free market because of their durability, transportability, fungibility, and scarcity.

Emerged is the key. The process through which money is “created” is not one of central planning or of creation at all, but rather one in which money is “discovered” by markets.

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Money Does Matter: The End of the Gold Standard Led to a Lower Standard of Living, by André Marques

Fake money is not without costs, and those costs invariably lower living standards. From André Marques at mises.org:

On August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon announced that the US dollar (USD) would no longer be redeemable in gold. This was supposed to be temporary. And yet, fifty-one years later, here we are. The gold standard was gradually destroyed in the twentieth century. Now people are experiencing the consequences: less purchasing power, more economic cycles, and a weaker economy.

In the chapter 4 of his book What Has Government Done to Our Money?, Murray Rothbard goes over the steps the government took to end the gold standard over the twentieth century, from the end of the classical gold standard to the closing of the gold window in 1971.

The Classical Gold Standard (1815–1914)

The classical gold standard tended to prevent the government from running budget deficits and going into debt, as it could not easily create inflation. In 1913, the Federal Reserve (Fed) was born. When the US entered the World War I, US dollars were printed at an excess of the gold reserves. At this point, the US got off the classical gold standard and this money printing contributed to the depression of 1920–21.

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Here’s Why Thomas Jefferson Would’ve Had Jerome Powell Arrested, by Ron Paul

Counterfeiting is illegal, and there’s no bigger counterfeiter on the planet than the Federal Reserve. Those Federal Reserve Notes in your wallet or purse aren’t money, they are fiat debt instruments, or counterfeit money. From Ron Paul at birchgold.com:

Why Thomas Jefferson Would Have Jerome Powell Arrested

Before we get started today, I want to tell you a story about the former military dictator of Uganda, Idi Amin. During his eight years in power, the economy and infrastructure of the nation collapsed thanks to years of neglect and abuse. Amin took a familiar economic approach to his nation’s economic crisis – he had more money printed.

In fact, he personally negotiated a print run of 2 million in banknotes with a British company – at the end of the negotiations, the company’s salesman asked how they’d be paid for this service.

Amin dismissively replied, “Print 3 million and take 1 million for yourself.”

As you might expect, a planeload of new banknotes didn’t help solve Amin’s economic problems. He doubled the nation’s money supply in his last two years as dictator, absolutely flooding the nation with paper money. His people had money, but they didn’t have wealth because prices naturally skyrocketed. (Amin couldn’t really ask for economic advice as he’d had “intellectuals,” along with the former leader of the national central bank, Joseph Mubiru, executed.)

Throughout history, governments and citizens have repeatedly made the same mistake. Money isn’t wealth. And our Founding Fathers knew it…

The Founding Fathers knew what money was

The Coinage Act was passed by the Congress of 1792, which established the silver dollar as the unit of money in the United States. Along with silver dollars, the Act specified three gold coins (a $10 eagle, a $5 half-eagle and a $2.50 quarter-eagle) and smaller silver denominations – half dollars, quarter dollars, “dismes” and “half dismes” (dimes and nickels).

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An Autumn Of Epic Asset Collapses & Higher Inflation… Means Poverty & Social Unrest, by Egon von Greyerz

People get angry when they’re newly poor. From Egon von Greyerz at goldswitzerland.com:

The world economy and especially the political and economic situation today consists of a potpourri of lethal ingredients which will have dire consequences.

Let’s look at what this deadly potion consists of:

  • Debts at levels that can never be repaid – sovereign, corporate & private
  • Epic global bubbles in stocks, bonds & property – all about to collapse
  • Major geopolitical conflicts with no desire for peace – major wars likely
  • Energy imbalances and shortages, most self-inflicted
  • Food shortages leading to major famine and civil unrest
  • Inflation, leading to hyperinflation & global poverty
  • Political and economic corruption in US, Europe and most countries
  • No country will afford social security, medical or pension payments

So what are governments around the world doing to solve these problems?

Nothing of course.

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The Real Story of America Abandoning the Gold Standard, by Charles Hugh Smith

Every monetary standard has its perceived drawbacks, even the gold standard. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

Even currencies maintaining convertibility to gold are still subject to bond yields, interest rates, trade and capital flows.

It’s widely held that all of our financial woes are the result of abandoning the discipline of the gold standard in 1971. The premise here is that if the U.S. had maintained the gold standard, the excesses of the fiat currencies regime could not have arisen.

The real story is the U.S. was hemorrhaging gold in the 1960s at such a rate that America’s entire gold reserves would have disappeared by 1976 – 1978. Other nations converted their dollars into gold at a furious pace, draining America’s gold reserves. Once your gold is gone, you can’t have a gold standard. (see chart below.)

The point here is the U.S. was only a few years away from going off the gold standard anyway. President Nixon ended the convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold (a.k.a. “closed the gold convertibility window”) i.e. abandoned the gold standard, to preserve the remaining reserves, officially listed as around 8,100 tons.

The real story is complex. It has a lot of moving parts that are critical to understanding the gold standard and fiat currencies. A good starting place is this essay from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: The Changing Relationship between Trade and America’s Gold Reserves.

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An Inauspicious Anniversary: Nixon Slams Shut the Gold Window, by Michael Maharrey

When Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, he paved the way for infinite dollar debasement, and the U.S. and the rest of the world have been paying for it ever since. From Michael Maharrey at schiffgold.com:

Fifty-one years ago this week, President Richard Nixon slammed shut the “gold window” and eliminated the last vestige of the gold standard.

Nixon ordered Treasury Secretary John Connally to uncouple gold from its fixed $35 price and suspended the ability of foreign banks to directly exchange dollars for gold. During a national television address, on Aug. 15, 1971, Nixon promised the action would be temporary in order to “defend the dollar against the speculators,” but this turned out to be a lie. The president’s move permanently and completely severed the dollar from gold and turned it into a pure fiat currency.

The First Steps Toward Fiat

Nixon’s order was the end of a path off the gold standard that started during President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration. June 5, 1933, marked the beginning of a slow death of the dollar when Congress enacted a joint resolution erasing the right of creditors in the United States to demand payment in gold. The move was the culmination of other actions taken by Roosevelt that year.

In March 1933, the president prohibited banks from paying out or exporting gold, and in April of that same year, Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102. It was touted as a measure to stop hoarding, but was, in reality, a massive confiscation scheme. The order required private citizens, partnerships, associations and corporations to turn in all but small amounts of gold to the Federal Reserve at an exchange rate of $20.67 per ounce. In 1934, the government’s fixed price for gold was increased to $35 per ounce. This effectively increased the value of gold on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet by 69%.

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