Tag Archives: Deutsche Bank

A Bank With 49 Trillion Dollars In Exposure To Derivatives Is Melting Down Right In Front Of Our Eyes, by Michael Snyder

Deutsche Bank’s derivatives have been worrisome since at least the last financial crisis, and may be the cause of the next one. From Michael Snyder at theeconomiccollapseblog.com:

Could it be possible that we are on the verge of the next “Lehman Brothers moment”?  Deutsche Bank is the most important bank in all of Europe, it has 49 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives, and most of the largest “too big to fail banks” in the United States have very deep financial connections to the bank.  In other words, the global financial system simply cannot afford for Deutsche Bank to fail, and right now it is literally melting down right in front of our eyes.  For years I have been warning that this day would come, and even though it has been hit by scandal after scandal, somehow Deutsche Bank was able to survive until now.  But after what we have witnessed in recent days, many now believe that the end is near for Deutsche Bank.  On July 7th, they really shook up investors all over the globe when they laid off 18,000 employees and announced that they would be completely exiting their global equities trading business

It takes a lot to rattle Wall Street.

But Deutsche Bank managed to. The beleaguered German giant announced on July 7 that it is laying off 18,000 employees—roughly one-fifth of its global workforce—and pursuing a vast restructuring plan that most notably includes shutting down its global equities trading business.

Though Deutsche’s Bloody Sunday seemed to come out of the blue, it’s actually the culmination of a years-long—some would say decades-long—descent into unprofitability and scandal for the bank, which in the early 1990s set out to make itself into a universal banking powerhouse to rival the behemoths of Wall Street.

These moves may delay Deutsche Bank’s inexorable march into oblivion, but not by much.

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Bank Run: Deutsche Bank Clients Are Pulling $1 Billion A Day, by Tyler Durden

Might this be the snowball rolling down the hill that starts the global financial avalanche? From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

There is a reason James Simons’ RenTec is the world’s best performing hedge fund – it spots trends (even if they are glaringly obvious) well ahead of almost everyone else, and certainly long before the consensus.

That’s what happened with Deutsche Bank, when as we reported two weeks ago, the quant fund pulled its cash from Deutsche Bank as a result of soaring counterparty risk, just days before the full – and to many, devastating – extent of the German lender’s historic restructuring was disclosed, and would result in a bank that is radically different from what Deutsche Bank was previously (see “The Deutsche Bank As You Know It Is No More“).

In any case, now that RenTec is long gone, and questions about the viability of Deutsche Bank are swirling – yes, it won’t be insolvent overnight, but like the world’s biggest melting ice cube, there is simply no equity value there any more – everyone else has decided to cut their counterparty risk with the bank with the €45 trillion in derivatives, and according to Bloomberg Deutsche Bank clients, mostly hedge funds, have started a “bank run” which has culminated with about $1 billion per day being pulled from the bank.

As a result of the modern version of this “bank run”, where it’s not depositors but counterparties that are pulling their liquid exposure from DB on fears another Lehman-style lock up could freeze their funds indefinitely, Deutsche Bank is considering how to transfer some €150 billion ($168 billion) of balances held in it prime-brokerage unit – along with technology and potentially hundreds of staff – to French banking giant BNP Paribas.

One problem, as Bloomberg notes, is that such a forced attempt to change prime-broker counterparties, would be like herding cats, as the clients had already decided they have no intention of sticking with Deutsche Bank, and would certainly prefer to pick their own PB counterparty than be assigned one by the Frankfurt-based bank. Alas, the problem for DB is that with the bank run accelerating, pressure on the bank to complete a deal soon is soaring.

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Deutsche Bank To Launch €50 Billion “Bad Bank” Housing Billions In Toxic Derivatives, by Tyler Durden

When the European banking system melts down, you can be sure Deutsche Bank will be right in the middle of it. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Just last week, Jeff Gundlach – in his latest DoubleLine investor call – cracked jokes that Deutsche Bank’s imploding stock, which has been hitting fresh all time lows virtually every day, has a major support area at €0.

Once again, he was on to something because now, just a few days later, the FT reports that the bank which was this close to nationalization in 2016, and failed to consummate a merger with that “other” German bank, Commerzbank, is preparing to roll out Plan Z: amid a deep overhaul of its trading operations (read: mass terminations), the biggest German lender is set to roll out a “bad bank” holding some €50 billion in toxic assets, in a plan that was quite popular in the depths of the global financial crisis.

Meanwhile, as part of CEO Christian Sewing’s ongoing restructuring of DB away from investment bank, “the bank’s equity and rates trading businesses oustide continental Europe will be severely shrunk or closed entirely as part of the revamp”, while managers are also set to unveil a new focus on transaction banking and private wealth management.

 

Deutsche Bank Death Spiral Hits Historic Low. European Banks Get Re-Hammered, by Wolf Richter

European banks are certainly a strong candidate to kick off the next financial crisis. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

Just bumping along the bottom, from hopeless to hope and back to hopeless.

The amazing thing with Deutsche Bank shares is this: Since 2007, so for 12 years, bottom fishers have been routinely taken out the back and shot, every time, with relentless regularity – as have big institutional investors, from Chinese conglomerates to state-owned wealth funds, that thought they were picking the bottom. A similar concept applies to European banks in general. May 2007 was the high point. And it has been brutal ever since – 12 years of misery.

Deutsche Bank shares dropped another 2.9% on Monday in Frankfurt, and closed at a new historic low of €6.64 after hitting €6.61 intraday. This time, the blame was put on UBS analysts that finally stamped “sell” on the stock, replacing their “neutral” rating. Deutsche Bank’s market cap is now down to just €13.8 billion. Shares have plunged 39% over the past 12 months and 60% since January 2018 (data via Investing.com):

The bank has been subject to years of revelations of shenanigans that span the palette. Once a conservative bank that primarily served its German business clientele in Germany and overseas, it decided to turn itself into a Wall Street high-flyer that caused its shares to skyrocket until May 2007, when it got tangled up in the Financial Crisis that then led to a slew of apparently never-ending hair-raising revelations, settlements with regulators, and huge fines.

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Deutsche Bank Death Spiral Hits Historic Low. European Banks Follow, by Wolf Richter

The unremitting downtrend in European bank stocks is not a good sign for the global economy or financial markets. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

Bottom fishers were taken out the back and shot.

It just doesn’t let up with Deutsche Bank — or with European banks in general. A new day, a new scandal, a new historic low in the share price that has been in a death-spiral for over 10 years. Deutsche Bank shares plunged 7% today in Frankfurt, to a new historic low of €7.00, after briefly threatening to close at an ignominious €6.99. Its market cap is now down to just €14 billion. The stock has plunged 56% so far this year:

The European Commission — the executive branch of the EU — after nearly three years of investigating this, announced today that is suspects four unnamed banks of colluding to manipulate the vast market for US-dollar-denominated government-backed bonds between 2009 and 2015.

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Deutsche Bank, Again, by Global Macro Monitor

On a mark-to-market basis, is Deutsche Bank worth anything? From the Global Macro Monitor at macromon.wordpress.com:

Whenever we see markets tanking as they have been for the past few days with the Dow down almost 1,000 points (3.7 percent) since Friday’s close, we think counterparty risk may be spooking traders and investors.   We suspect, and we could be wrong, there is a growing concern over Deutsche Bank’s (DB) stock making new all-time lows.

We see a lot of hits on our blog today on our past posts about Deutsche Bank.

Biggest Globally Systemically-Important Bank (GSIB)

Deutsche Bank, which has been labeled by the IMF as the biggest contributor to global systemic risk,  hit a new all-time low in Frankfurt this morning, closing at around €8.17,  down over 91 percent from its pre-GFC high and almost 50 percent year-to-date.  The latest hit comes from its involvement with Danske Bank, who is wrapped up in a money laundering scandal in Estonia.

Whenever a GSIB stock is making a new low,  it’s time to sit up, stand up and listen.

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If You Read Between The Lines, Global Economic Leaders Are Telling Us Exactly What Is Coming, by Michael Snyder

Very few come right out and say what they mean anymore, but if you pay close attention, sometimes you can figure it out anyway. From Michael Snyder at theconomiccollapseblog.com:

Sometimes, a strongly-worded denial is the most damning evidence of all that something is seriously wrong.  And when things start to really get crazy, “the spin” is often the exact opposite of the truth.  In recent days we have seen a lot of troubling headlines and a lot of chaos in the global financial marketplace, but authorities continue to assure us that everything is going to be just fine.  Of course we witnessed precisely the same thing just prior to the great financial crisis of 2008.  Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke insisted that a recession was not coming, and we proceeded to plunge into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.  Is our society experiencing a similar state of denial about what is ahead of us here in 2018?

Let me give you a few examples of some recent things that global economic leaders have said, and what they really meant…

Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk: “We are definitely not going bankrupt.”

Translation: “We are definitely going bankrupt.”

Tesla is a company that is supposedly worth 51 billion dollars, but the reality is that they are going to zero.  They have been bleeding massive amounts of cash for years, and now a day of reckoning has finally arrived.  A severe liquidity crunch has forced the company to delay payments or to ask for enormous discounts from suppliers, and many of those suppliers are now concerned that Tesla is on the verge of collapse

Specifically, a recent survey sent privately by a well-regarded automotive supplier association to top executives, and seen by the WS , found that 18 of 22 respondents believe that Tesla is now a financial risk to their companies.

Meanwhile, confirming last month’s report that Tesla is increasingly relying on net working capital, and specifically accounts payable to window dress its liquidity, several suppliers said Tesla has tried to stretch out payments or asked for significant cash back. And in some cases, public records show, small suppliers over the past several months have claimed they failed to get paid for services supplied to Tesla.

Shark Tank billionaire Mark Cuban: “I’ve got a whole lot of cash on the sidelines.”

Translation: “I believe that the stock market is about to crash.”

To continue reading: If You Read Between The Lines, Global Economic Leaders Are Telling Us Exactly What Is Coming