Tag Archives: Federal Reserve balance sheet

‘Worth Celebrating’ My Eye, by David Stockman

David Stockman takes apart a Wall Street Journal bozo who thinks the Fed deserves congratulations for its off-the-charts fiat debt creation response to Covid. From Stockman at David Stockman’s Contra Corner via lewrockwell.com:

Once upon a time, the Wall Street Journal supported a bevy of reporters who were no one’s fool and who evinced a decent level of economic literacy and respect for the institutions of free markets and sound money.

Obviously, no more. We were reminded again today that these financial journalists of yore have been replaced by scribes who dutifully transmit the statist propaganda that emits from the Eccles Building and from the elected and appointed Federales encamped throughout the Imperial City.

Thus, the WSJ’s in-house Fed shill, Greg Ip, recently saw fit to praise the $10 trillion bacchanalia of fiscal largesse ($6 trillion) and Fed money-pumping ($4 trillion) that has been stood up by Washington since March 2020.

According to the Wall Street Journal’s man on the policy beat –

…..this week we got proof of something that really went right: the economic policy response. The pandemic-induced shutdown was initially the worst to hit the U.S. economy since the Great Depression….And yet poverty, by its broadest measure, went down…..after taking account of government benefits such as stimulus checks, food stamps and tax credits, the share dropped to 9.1% from 10.5% in 2019.

The Federal Reserve gets some credit for rapidly slashing interest rates to near zero and intervening in markets to prevent the economic crisis from becoming a financial crisis. But once the Fed’s interest rate ammunition was exhausted, fiscal policy rose to the challenge. Congress ultimately authorized $5.9 trillion of emergency measures of which $4.6 trillion has been spent….

As important as the magnitude of this relief was the variety. Unsure of the most effective remedy, Congress rolled out several: forgivable loans for small businesses that kept their employees (the paycheck protection program or PPP), stimulus checks to almost everyone, unemployment insurance expanded to gig workers and topped up with an extra $300 to $600 a week, low-cost loans from the Fed and Treasury to medium and large businesses, aid to state and local governments.

Much of this was experimental, and the lessons learned may lessen the toll of future recessions. By depositing cash directly into household bank accounts, Treasury has learned how, with congressional approval, to deliver stimulus almost as quickly as the Fed. PPP has yielded new tools to preserve employer-employee bonds in the face of shocks, reducing wasted economic potential.

Nonetheless, the economy today is in a far healthier place than was imaginable in the spring of 2020. That’s worth celebrating.

What an unrelieved load of horse pucky!

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The US Recovery Is Weak, Especially Given the Size of the “Stimulus”, by Daniel Lacalle

If the GDP grows at 6 percent, which in a $21 trillion economy is about $1.26 trillion, but government stimulus, was twice that and the Fed’s balance sheet expanded by an incredible $7 trillion, can you really say the economy has in any meaningful sense grown? Only in the sense that you get “wealthier” by running up your credit card balances. From Daniel Lacalle at mises.org:

The United States: Hardly A Recovery

There is an overly optimistic consensus view about the speed and strength of the United States’ recovery that is contradicted by facts. It is true that the United States recovery is stronger than the European or Japanese one, but the macrodata shows that the euphoric messages about aggregate GDP growth are wildly exaggerated.

Of course gross domestic product is going to rise fast, with estimates of 6 percent for 2021. It would be alarming if it did not after a massive chain of stimuli of more than 12 percent of GDP in fiscal spending and $7 trillion in Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. This is a combined stimulus that is almost three times larger than the 2008 crisis one, according to McKinsey. The question is, What is the quality of this recovery?

The answer is: extremely poor. The United States real growth excluding the increase in debt will continue to be exceedingly small. No one can talk about a strong recovery when industry capacity utilization is at 74 percent, massively below the level of 80 percent at which it was before the pandemic. Furthermore, labor force participation rate stands at 61.5 percent, significantly below the precovid level and stalling after bouncing to 62 percent in September. Unemployment may be at 6 percent, but it is still almost twice as large as it was before the pandemic. Continuing jobless claims remain above 3.7 million in April. Weekly jobless claims remain above 500,000 and the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs—state and federal combined—for the week ending March 27 decreased by 1.2 million to 16.9 million.

These figures must be put in the context of the unprecedented spending spree and the monetary stimulus. Yes, the recovery is better than the eurozone’s thanks to a fast and efficient vaccination rollout and the dynamism of the United States business fabric, but the figures show that a relevant amount of the subsequent stimulus plans have simply perpetuated overcapacity, kept zombie firms that had financial issues before covid-19 alive, and bloated the government structural deficit and mandatory spending.

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Some clear thinking on the yesterday’s massive deficit announcement, by Simon Black

They have a name for countries where the government’s central bank is the largest buyer of the government’s debt: banana republics. From Simon Black at sovereignman.com:

Every single month, the US Treasury Department is legally obliged to publish monthly financial statements to the public.

This is typically a pretty boring ritual which attracts minimal fanfare; few people pay attention, or even care to look at the federal government’s accounting of its assets, liabilities, income and expenses.

Yet yesterday’s financial statements were pretty groundbreaking, as they showed that the US federal government deficit so far this fiscal year is an astonishing $1.7 trillion.

Bear in mind we’re only halfway through the fiscal year (which began in October 2020). So there’s a lot more red ink to follow.

That $1.7 trillion deficit figure doesn’t even include a lot of recent and pending legislation, including COVID relief, infrastructure, and all the other fantasy spending bills the Bolsheviks are putting forward.

Now, rather than focus on the headline figure, I’d like to take you on a quick tour of the federal debt today and have an objective discussion of what lies ahead.

First off, it’s important to understand that when the federal government goes into debt, it does so by issuing bonds; bonds are financial securities (like stocks) which entitle the holder to be repaid with interest.

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Peter Schiff: The Federal Reserve Has Handed the US Government a Blank Check

Like many other central banks, the Fed’s primary mission has become to finance the government. From Peter Schiff at schiffgold.com:

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called for a “society-wide” commitment to reaching full employment, calling for “contributions from across government and the private sector.” He said getting people back to work would require “continued support from both near-term policy and longer-run investments.” He also dismissed concerns about debt saying the focus needs to be on the economy’s immediate needs. As Peter Schiff put it in his podcast, Powell handed the US Treasury a blank check.

Peter said Powell’s comments were among some of the most dovish he’s ever heard.

I know I’ve said that before, except every time Powell speaks, he exceeds his prior level of dovishness. So, he’s getting more and more dovish as time goes by.”

The markets didn’t show much response to Powell’s comments. Peter said that leads him to believe that a lot of people still don’t understand the significance of what Powell is saying.

Powell was most revealing during the Q&A. He took a number of questions about inflation. As Peter noted, there are signs of exploding prices everywhere. But Powell said he’s not worried and doesn’t see signs of significant inflation.

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Stop the Real Steal! by David Stockman

The real steal is the steal of the future, which is already buried in debt and only getting more so. The election outcome makes no difference at all. From David Stockman at davidstockmanscontracorner.com, via lewrockwell.com:

It’s axiomatic that when you suddenly change the election rules and modus operandi, causing 65 million mail-in ballots (out of 159 million total) to flood unprepared local elections systems, you will get beaucoup irregularities, mistakes and fraud. To that extent, the impending Trumpite challenge when the Congress meets on Wednesday to certify the 2020 election results is spot on.

But at the end of the day, the challenge being mounted by Senator Hawley (R-Missouri) and the Cruz Eleven is both futile and mischievous. That’s because, thank heavens, American government is not organized into an all-powerful, centralized, unitary state like France, Red China or countless other authoritarian regimes in-between.

To the contrary, government in America remains decentralized and federalist, even if the founders’ design, culminating in the 10th Amendment’s reservation of unexpressed powers to the states, has been relentlessly chipped away since the New Deal. Indeed, when it comes to many aspects of day-to-day governance, such as on matters of public welfare or commerce, federalism has been drained of substance and the sovereign states have, regrettably, morphed into administrative appendages and fiscal supplicants of Washington.

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The Biggest Threat to Your Prosperity and What You Can Do, by David Stockman

You won’t hear it now, with the stock market doing well, but by the time the coming bear market reaches bottom, the cry will be well nigh unstoppable: Abolish the Fed! From David Stockman at internationalman.com:

Federal Reserve

If you want to understand America’s dangerously deepening travails, you have to start at the Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building.

After a 30-year rolling coup d’etat, its occupants have imposed a regime of destructive falsification on America’s financial, economic, political, and social life.

It has become the heart of mushrooming darkness taking prosperity, liberty, and democracy down for the count.

How do we get 50 million unemployed… the stock market at record highs… companies trashing their balance sheets to buy back stock and do vastly overpriced M&A deals… doctors and politicians savaging the economy and the livelihoods of millions… and Washington going incontinent on the fiscal front?

The answer is simple: the rapidly-spreading dysfunction is rooted in the giant financial fraud embedded in the Federal Reserve’s $7 trillion balance sheet.

The latter is blissfully taken for granted by the politicians and C-suites of corporate America and desperately insisted upon by the unhinged gamblers of Wall Street.

Even if you believe that a regular infusion of money is needed to catalyze the wheels of capitalist growth (we don’t), there is absolutely no economic logic that says the central bank’s balance sheet should grow by orders of magnitude faster than GDP over an extended period of time.

If the robustly growing GDP of 1987 needed $5 of central bank money per $100 of GDP, there is no reason why that ratio should have differed in 2008 or 2020.

But it did and does.

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Is The “Debt Chasm” Too Big For The Fed To Fill? by Lance Roberts

The answer is yes. From Lance Roberts at realinvestmentadvice.com:

Over the last month, the Federal Reserve, and the Government, have unleashed a torrent of liquidity into the U.S. markets to offset a credit crisis of historic proportions. Here is a list of programs already implemented which have already surpassed all programs during the “Financial Crisis.”

  • March 6th – $8.3 billion “emergency spending” package.
  • March 12th – Federal Reserve supplies $1.5 trillion in liquidity.
  • March 13th – President Trump pledges to reprieve student loan interest payments
  • March 13th – President Trump declares a “National Emergency” freeing up $50 billion in funds.
  • March 15th – Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches $700 billion in “Q.E.”
  • March 17th – Fed launches the Primary Dealer Credit Facility to buy corporate bonds.
  • March 18th – Fed creates the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility
  • March 18th – President Trump signs “coronavirus” relief plan to expand paid leave ($100 billion)
  • March 20th – President Trump invokes the Defense Production Act.
  • March 23rd – Fed pledges “Unlimited QE” of Treasury, Mortgage, and Corporate Bonds.
  • March 23rd – Fed launches two Corporate Credit Facilities:
    • A Primary Market Facility (Issuance of new 4-year bonds for businesses.)
    • A Secondary Market Facility (Purchase of corporate bonds and corporate bond ETF’s)
  • March 23rd – Fed launches the Term Asset-Backed Security Loan Facility (Small Business Loans)
  • April 9th – Fed launches several new programs:
    • The Paycheck Protection Program Loan Facility (Purchase of $350 billion in SBA Loans)
    • A Main Street Business Lending Program ($600 billion in additional Small Business Loans)
    • The Municipal Liquidity Facility (Purchase of $500 billion in Municipal Bonds.)
    • Expands funding for PMCCF, SMCCF and TALF up to $850 billion.

Here is the Fed’s balance sheet through this past Wednesday (estimated at time of writing)

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The Feds Keep Inflating, But Someone Has to Pay America’s Debts, by Bill Bonner

The tooth fairy is going to pay the US government’s $23 trillion and counting debt. From Bill Bonner at bonnerandpartners.com:

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Today, amid all the noise and distractions of Donald J. Trump’s impeachment, we return to the slo-mo financial calamity inching towards the U.S.

First, some context. Here’s what is happening:

The two main factions of the Deep State – Republicans and Democrats – are fighting for control of the government. The headlines tell us about every bomb thrown and missile launched in the impeachment proceedings.

Government is essentially a win-lose enterprise. Its internal battles – even when disguised as solemn rituals – are mostly to determine who gets ripped off by whom.

Most likely, the present drama will end in a draw. Mr. Trump will be impeached by the Democratic-controlled House… but not heaved over the side by the Republican-controlled Senate. And after the impeachment battle is over, the war will go on; it will simply shift to a new front – the 2020 elections.

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It’s official: the Federal Reserve is insolvent, by Simon Black

By mark-to-market accounting, or as it’s sometimes known, honest accounting, the Fed’s losses on its bond portfolio are greater than it’s capital. In other words, it’s broke. From Simon Black at sovereignman.com:

In the year 1157, the Republic of Venice was in the midst of war and in desperate need of funds.

It wasn’t the first time in history that a government needed to borrow money to fight a war. But the Venetians came up with an innovative idea:

Every citizen who loaned money to the government was to receive an official paper certificate guaranteeing that the state would make interest payments.

Those certificates could then be transferred to other people… and the government would make payments to whoever held the certificate at the time.

In this way, the loan that an investor made to the government essentially became an asset– one that he could sell to another investor in the future.

This was the first real government bond. And the idea ultimately created a robust market of investors who would buy and sell these securities.

When a government’s fortunes changed and its ability to make interest payments was in doubt, the price of the bond fell. When confidence was high, bond prices rose.

It’s not much different today. Governments still borrow money by issuing bonds, and those bonds trade in a robust marketplace where countless investors buy and sell on a daily basis.

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