Category Archives: Economics

Electric Cars & Resource Wars, by Stan Cox and Priti Gulati Cox

It will be a monumental challenge to find enough cobalt and lithium to meet projected demand for these elements, which are essential for EV batteries. From Stan Cox and Priti Gulati Cox at consortiumnews.com:

Much of the excitement over the Inflation Reduction Act, which became law this summer, focused on the boost it should give to the sales of electric vehicles. Sadly, though, manufacturing and driving tens of millions of individual electric passenger cars won’t get us far enough down the road to ending greenhouse-gas emissions and stanching the overheating of this planet. Worse yet, the coming global race to electrify the personal vehicle is likely to exacerbate ecological degradation, geopolitical tensions and military conflict.

The batteries that power electric vehicles are likely to be the source of much international competition and the heart of the problem lies in two of the metallic elements used to make their electrodes: cobalt and lithium. Most deposits of those metals lie outside the borders of the United States and will leave manufacturers here (and elsewhere) relying heavily on foreign supplies to electrify road travel on the scale now being envisioned.

Adventurers & Opportunists

In the battery business, the Democratic Republic of Congo is referred to as “the Saudi Arabia of cobalt.” For two decades, its cobalt — 80 percent of the world’s known reserves — has been highly prized for its role in mobile-phone manufacturing. Such cobalt mining has already taken a terrible human and ecological toll.

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Patrick Lawrence: The Non-West Coalesces

A lot of countries are deciding that they don’t have to be the U.S.’s vassals. From Patrick Lawrence at sheerpost.com:

Nations representing more than 80 percent of the global population and a like percentage of global gross domestic product are perfectly capable of seeing the Biden administration’s pointed provocations and do not approve.

OPEC President Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua Leads First In-Person OPEC Meeting Since COVID-19. Image source: OPEC

Something of epochal importance happened in Vienna, where the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, now known as OPEC–Plus with the inclusion of the Russian Federation, convened recently for its first in-person session since 2020. You would not know of this development if you rely solely on the reports carried in our corporate-owned media.

The world just took a significant turn into the 21st century. Let us stay abreast of it, leaving those who refuse to see this to their own devices.

President Biden, apparently not intelligent enough to understand the emergent new era and indifferent to the interests and aspirations of others, quickly made as big a mess of things as could be made. Last week he threatened Saudi Arabia, which co-chairs OPEC–Plus with the Russian Federation, with “consequences” for what transpired in Vienna. This is what imperiums do when their primacy is threatened—they encourage the very currents in history they are determined to disrupt.

As reported everywhere, OPEC–Plus decided to reduce the oil production of member nations by two million barrels per day as of next month. This may amount to an actual cut of half that amount, as many OPEC–Plus members—Nigeria, for instance—have not been lifting to their quotas anyway. But oil prices are already increasing, and we will soon see this at our filling stations. As retail prices rise, it is likely to complicate the political fortunes of the Biden administration and Democrats on Capitol Hill just as the midterm elections approach. So, a pretty big deal.

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Noland: “Dominoes Are Aligning For A Major Synchronized Global Crisis”

It’s a when, not an if. Credit and debt are going to blow up; there’s simply too much of them. From Doug Noland at Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin via zerohedge.com:

It would have been a nonevent; inconsequential. Confirming New Cycle Dynamics, the Truss government’s “mini budget” has unleashed absolute mayhem. Pension funds blowing up. Emergency central bank rescue operations. Global market instability. UK’s Treasury Secretary sacrificed after a mere 38 days, while an entire government hangs in the balance.

Friday evening Financial Times headlines: “Gilts in Fresh Slide as Investors Say Truss U-turn Did Not Go Far Enough.” “Can Liz Truss Survive as UK Prime Minister?”; “Austerity Beckons as Truss Seeks to Restore Britain’s Reputation with Investors.” And “UK Debacle Shows Central Bank ‘Tough Love’ is Here to Stay.”

The world has changed right before our eyes.

It has been one of my favored rhetorical questions for the past couple decades: Is “money” (monetary inflation) the solution or the problem? The answer is obvious – has been for some time, and I’ll assume central bankers have accepted the harsh reality.

Years of unprecedented monetary inflation created false realities. The perception of endless cheap (free) “money” distorted how our market, economic, financial, political and social systems function. The long-overdue adjustment period has commenced, and there’s every reason to expect it to be especially brutal. So quickly, so many things are different. There were this week more tremors and that nagging feeling the ground was about to give way.

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The U.S. Power Grid Is At Risk Of Catastrophic Failure? by Madge Waggy

Yes, it could happen: grid down. From Madge Waggy at sevenwop.home.blog:

(It may be an over-statement to refer to the U.S. power grid as crumbling, but in many parts of the country that’s exactly the case. The North American power grid is old.)

Many of us have experienced a power outage at one time or another. Most of the time the duration of the outage is measured in hours, maybe a day, and in rare instances – a week or more.

The outages also tend to be localized and repairs happen quickly or power is “borrowed” from a nearby utility or network and rerouted to the affected area. The experience is usually a frustrating inconvenience and most hospitals and critical systems have backup power to get through the outage.

But what if…?

What If The National Grid Fails?

It’s never happened in the United States, but some countries have had widespread power outages affecting most of their territory. Russia’s cyber attack on Ukraine’s grid in 2015 knocked about 60 substations offline, leaving 230,000 people in the dark. It was an ominous threat, but once again, the outage only lasted 1 to 6 hours.

It seems like most power outages, regardless of the extent, have a short duration and are only an inconvenience. But there’s a problem.

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In Overheated Economy, Dems Forced To Cool Climate Messaging, by Susan Crabtree

Rising energy prices are putting a damper on people’s enthusiasm for more expensive green energy. From Susan Crabtree at realclearwire.com:

Eric Sorensen, a Democrat running for an open seat in a northwest Illinois congressional district that Donald Trump narrowly won twice, concluded recently that his campaign website’s top issues section needed a major reshuffling.

A section entitled “Addressing Climate Change,” which was initially leading the page, was relegated to the no. 4 spot, according to a comparison of the archived version of the website. The revamped website’s top two sections were new: “Addressing Rising Costs” and “Securing Reproductive Rights.”

Sorensen’s re-tooled website reflects the purple nature of his district and the shifting realities of the 2022 midterms as candidates head into the final stretch. Democrats are facing severe headwinds when it comes to the economy and inflation, and they can’t afford to dodge the issue or ignore the pain it’s causing many low- and middle-income Americans.

At the same time, Democrats still hope that opposition to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning federal abortion protections continues to resonate enough to hand them wins in tight races around the country.

In unpredictable, ultra-competitive races like Sorensen’s, Democrats are deliberating over every move in the final weeks. The race for the seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos pits Sorensen against Republican Esther Joy King, a U.S. Army JAG officer reservist running a campaign focused on combating inflation.

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Banking crisis — the Great Unwind, by Alasdair Macleod

Europe will be the epicenter of the banking crisis, which has already begun and which will engulf the world. From Alasdair Macleod at goldmoney.com:

There is a growing feeling in markets that a financial crisis of some sort is now on the cards. Credit Suisse’s very public struggles to refinance itself is proving to be a wake-up call for markets, alerting investors to the parlous state of global banking.

This article identifies the principal elements leading us into a global financial crisis. Behind it all is the threat from a new trend of rising interest rates, and the natural desire of commercial banks everywhere to reduce their exposure to falling financial asset values both on their balance sheets and held as loan collateral. And there are specific problems areas, which we can identify:

  • It should be noted that the phenomenal growth of OTC derivatives and regulated futures has been against a background of generally declining interest rates since the mid-eighties. That trend is now reversing, so we must expect the $600 trillion of global OTC derivatives and a further $100 trillion of futures to contract as banks reduce their derivative exposure. In the last two weeks, we have seen the consequences for the gilt market in London, warning us of other problem areas to come.
  • Commercial banks are over-leveraged, with notable weak spots in the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK. It will be something of a miracle if banks in these jurisdictions manage to survive contracting bank credit and derivative blow-ups. If they are not prevented, even the better capitalised American banks might not be safe.
  • Central banks are mandated to rescue the financial system in troubled times. However, we find that the ECB and its entire euro system of national central banks, the Bank of Japan, and the US Fed are all deeply in negative equity and in no condition to underwrite the financial system in this rising interest rate environment. 

The Credit Suisse wake-up call

In the last fortnight, it has become obvious that Credit Suisse, one of Switzerland’s two major banking institutions, faces a radical restructuring. That’s probably a polite way of saying the bank needs rescuing.

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Thanks to the Fed, You’ll Work More This Year to Keep Last Year’s Standard of Living, by Ryan McMaken

Do you have that running-in-place feeling? Having trouble making that last pay check stretch to the next payday? You’re not alone. From Ryan McMaken at mises.org:

According to the establishment survey of employment, released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, total employment increased, month over month, by 263,000 jobs. The job market stays strong,” reads one CNBC headline, and the new jobs print was hailed as a great achievement of the Biden administration by MSNBC pundit Steve Benen.

Yet the employment data is possibly the only data that looks good right now, and that’s not much comfort, since employment is a lagging indicator of the economy’s direction. In fact, if we look beyond the employment survey, what we find is an economy where real earnings are falling, savings are falling, and more people are taking on second jobs to make ends meet.

The first indicator of this is the fact that while total jobs have shown some relatively strong growth, the total number of employed persons has been nearly flat for months, and only last month (September 2022) did it finally return to precovid levels. In fact, the jobs recovery in employed persons took thirty-two months to return to the previous peak. The fabled “V-shaped recovery” promised by advocates of covid lockdowns never materialized. Had there been a V-shaped recovery, employed persons would have recovered to previous peaks by mid-2021. It ended up taking about eighteen months longer than that.

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Debt Markets Get Trampled, by MN Gordon

Equity markets are ants compared to debt market elephants. From MN Gordon at economicprism.com:

Anyone with half a brain knew there would be hell to pay for locking down the economy and simultaneously printing and spewing out trillions of dollars of confetti money.  The bill has finally come due.

Did you see the latest consumer price index (CPI) report?

According to the government bean counters consumer price inflation, as measured by the CPI, increased in September at an annual rate of 8.2 percent.  While this is down slightly from several months ago, the year-over-year increase in prices is still near a 40-year high.

Stock market investors celebrated the news like mindless idiots.  On Thursday, after the CPI report was released, the S&P 500 rallied more than 2.5 percent.  Perhaps stock market investors were elated the CPI wasn’t even higher.

More important than the stock market is the debt market.  Following the CPI release, Treasury yields spiked up.  Bond investors know what’s coming.  Specifically, more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.  They sold accordingly.

Because as interest rates rise, bond prices fall.  This inverse relationship, which has been in existence since financial markets were invented, is wreaking havoc on debt investors.  The value of the paper they’re holding is vaporizing in their hands.

What to do?

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Shellenberger: Biden Is Failing The World

Energy is essential to life, and as Europeans will discover this winter, it’s absence can mean death. From Michael Shellenberger at zerohedge.com:

The world desperately needs energy and yet President Joe Biden is preventing sufficient quantities of oil and gas from being produced…

Below is the written transcript of the above video. Additional slides and graphs are in the video.

Many people in the U.S. are still unaware of just how dire the situation is in Europe. They have started logging their old-growth forests for wood fuel to stay warm during the winter. You can see in a tweet that just came out today from somebody in Denmark that “people are stealing each other’s wood pellets and their wood briquettes as soon as they’re delivered.” To make matters worse, “There’s constant reports of cars having their tanks drilled and their gas stolen.” Remember, it’s not even winter yet. Winter’s actually over 72 days away. So this is a very serious situation.

You can see that in Poland people are actually burning trash to stay warm. Burning trash in your fireplace creates toxic smoke. It’s hazardous. The government’s considering handing out masks so people can breathe more safely when they’re outdoors.

Recall that natural gas is the reason the United States reduced its carbon emissions more than any other country in the world. Carbon emissions have been on the decline globally, in large measure, because of the transition from coal to gas. Natural gas is something that most reasonable people agree is a superior fuel to coal. Natural gas is the reason the United States reduced its emissions by 22% between 2005 and 2020, which is five percentage points more than the United States had agreed to reduce our emissions under cap and trade legislation, which nearly passed Congress in 2010 and under the UN Paris Climate Agreement.

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Gilty Finking, by Bill Bonner

Very few financial fiduciaries are set up for rising interest rates. Many of them are using leverage to bet that interest rates will stay stable or decline, which makes it quite painful when they go up. From Bill Bonner at bonnerprivateresearch.com:

BlackRock’s liabilities, the Bank of England’s pivot and the folly of fake rates…

(Source: Getty Images)

Bill Bonner, reckoning today from Baltimore, Maryland…

Yes, dear reader, it’s a YODO world now. Investors are realizing that when they are dead, they are dead forever. No Fed voodoo to raise them from the grave.

And it’s the first time for most of them. No chance to practice. No opportunity to learn.

And so, the mood was glum at the end of last week. The jobs report on Thursday showed a stronger employment market than expected. Investors figured the odds of a Fed U-turn had gone down. They sold stocks. MarketWatch:

While markets have not yet morphed into an actual state of alarm, an increasingly dark sentiment is starting to brew behind the scenes.

Nikko Asset Management’s John Vail said a “short but scary” global recession is likely to be ahead. Ben Emons of Medley Global Advisors said Wednesday’s decision by major oil producers to cut production, starting next month, has the potential to turn into a prolonged stretch of higher inflation and big market swings. And volatility expert Harley Bassman said stocks could drop as much as 20% from where they are now — a magnitude similar to the single-day decline that took place during 1987’s “Black Monday” scare.

As the Fed raises rates, they become more ‘normal’ than they’ve been for many years. But ‘normal’ terrifies investors. It makes them realize how weird things have gotten and that they may have to back up before they can go forward. That is, they may have to give up their Bubble Era profits and admit that much of what they believed was either a lie or a delusion.

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