Category Archives: Economics

Money versus Monetary Policy, by Jeff Deist

Money doesn’t need a policy, and the monetary system doesn’t need to be run by a government or its central bank. From Jeff Deist a mises.org:

With all due respect to Niall Ferguson, whom I’ve heard of, and Huw van Steenis, whom I’ve not, this tweet is quite preposterous.  I’ve personally met more than five people who understand money just in my own circles.

ferguson.jpg

What they mean is “monetary policy,” which is in fact very difficult to understand—given it effectively operates as a political program within the muddled field of macroeconomics. Monetary policy, unlike money per se, is ad hoc, highly technical, reliant on vast amounts of data, and dictated by political expediency.

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Gold’s return as money, by Alasdair Macleod

Tired of fiat currencies and ceaseless debasement, much of the world may adopt a currency or currencies tied to gold. From Alasdair Macleod at goldmoney.com:

The consequences of Russia and her Asian allies embracing gold backing for their currencies are poorly understood in western capital markets. This move could lead to the destruction of the global fiat currency system.

According to evidence which is widely ignored in western capital markets, a move by Russia to put a new trade settlement currency and possibly the rouble as well onto a new gold standard is becoming a certainty. As a weapon of mass fiat currency destruction, the timing is probably bound up in on-the-ground military considerations, which are already showing signs of escalating in Eastern Ukraine.

As well as using gold to undermine the western currency system, a return to a credible gold standard has significant advantages for Russia and for her allies in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS+, and all their commodity suppliers beyond Asia. At the same time, it would destroy the west’s fiat currencies and financial system.

This article explains how one part of the global economy can thrive while the other collapses.

Introduction

Recently, I have written about the signals emanating from Russia that President Putin is minded to re-adopt sound money by returning to some sort of gold standard. We do not yet know the details, but consider what he said at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June last year:

“Caught in the inflationary storm, many nations are asking, why bother exchanging goods for dollars and euros when they are losing value right before our eyes? Indeed, the economy of imaginary wealth is being inevitably replaced by the economy of real valuables and hard assets.

“According to the IMF, today’s global foreign currency reserves contain 7.1 trillion dollars and 2.5 trillion euros. And this money is depreciating at an annual rate of about 8%. Moreover, it can be confiscated or stolen at the whim of the US if it disapproves of something in a country’s policy.

I think this has become a very real threat for many countries that keep their gold and foreign exchange reserves in these currencies. According to objective expert analysis, in the coming years a conversion process of global reserves will get under way. Reserves will be converted from weakening currencies into tangible resources like food, energy, commodities, and other raw materials. Clearly, this process will further fuel global dollar inflation.”

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China’s Ensnared in the Middle-Income Trap, by James Rickards

China faces myriad financial and demographic challenges. The country won’t be taking over the world anytime soon, even if it expands its balloon fleet. From James Rickards at dailyreckoning.com:

China has fallen victim to what economists call the middle-income trap. Economists consider a low-income country to have around $5,000 annual income per capita. Middle-income countries have between $8,000 and $15,000 annual income per capita. High-income countries begin at around $20,000 annual income per capita.

China’s per capita annual income is $12,970 — solidly in the middle income category. By the way, in the U.S. it’s $75,180, among the highest in the world (second to Switzerland).

Due to China’s extreme income inequality, it is more useful to think of China as having two populations. One population of about 500 million urban workers has an annual per capita income of about $28,000, while a second population of about 900 million villagers has an annual per capita income of about $5,000.

That would put the 900 million villagers solidly in the lower income category, not even close to middle income. And there is extreme income inequality within the 500 million high-income groups such that most of those would have a middle income of about $12,000 per year, while a select few would be earning millions of dollars per year each.

China is predominately a low-income country with a significant middle-income cohort and a tiny slice of the super-rich. This income inequality makes China’s climb out of the middle-income ranks even more difficult. And the super-elite cohort is a potential source of social unrest among the less well-off.

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“Plug and Play” Guides US Domestic and Foreign Policy – and It’s Not Working, by Karen Kwiatkowski

Plug and play works in the market, but not with government, because government lacks all the market’s feedback loops. From Karen Kwiatkowski at lewrockwell.com:

The Lockheed Martin USN Freedom Class ships, “plug and play” multi-use vessels costing half a billion each – first launched in 2006 – are all being decommissioned.  The weird thing is that one was just delivered less than six months ago, and as of August 2022, Lockheed was sending out the propulsion fixes for the rest of them, presumably to get them to the scrapyards.

This microdot of news flew under my radar, and it confirms what we already know about the US MICIMATT – it’s not just what we do and how we do it, it’s what’s allowed to be talked about.  These ships were all named after major US cities; a couple of mayors reacted with sadness.  Not disgusted at the insanity and waste, or dumfounded by the government process, just sad that a brand new $500 million ship with their town’s name on it is being junked.

“Plug and play,” as transmogrified by the crony capitalists and government bureaucrats, not only doesn’t work – it is a real danger to every American, and by extension the rest of the world.  In the marketplace, plug and play is efficient, flexible, and smart.  Upgrading, fixing, and modifying mission capability of products via open architecture software and hardware makes sense. The market likes the sim card model – rapid recognition and correction of problems, responding to consumer demand for performance, efficiency and cost – these are key to business success.  Plug and play has raised the bar of market performance, along with customer expectations.

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Doug Casey on the Fed Raising Its Inflation Target and Other Shenanigans

The government shouldn’t be involved in the production of money and there should be no central bank. From Doug Casey at internationalman.com:

Understanding Inflation

International Man: Recently, there have been whispers about the Fed raising its official inflation target above 2%.

But before we get into that, we should define our terms.

What is the proper way to think of inflation and the Fed itself?

Doug Casey: First of all, the word “inflation” should be viewed as a verb, not as a noun. Inflation is an increase in the amount of money. This is why Bitcoin—which may have other issues as a money—is inflation-proof; it’s a mathematical certainty that no more than 21 million will ever exist. There are absolutely no limits to the supply of fiat dollars, however.

Inflation is one of the most misused words; few even think about the word’s actual meaning. What is inflation? “Well, that’s prices going up.” No, it’s not. To say that is to confuse cause and effect. Inflation is an increase in the money supply. “Inflation”, a rise is the general price level, results when the money supply is increased by more than real wealth increases.

Do you think I’m just making an obvious, common-sense point? Au contraire. For instance, the Wall Street Journal of Feb 13 featured an article entitled “Inflation Is Falling, and Where It Lands Depends on These Three Things.” In the opinion of the clueless reporter, the three things are “goods, shelter, and other services.” Nowhere does she reference the money supply as the cause of inflation. It’s what she was taught in school, and she stupidly perpetuates the notion.

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COVID-19: The Biodefense Mafia, by Spartacus

Spartacus came out with two long articles, one in September of 2021 and another in March of 2022. They both created quite a stir. Here he is with another long article that may be his best yet. From Spartacus at iceni.substack.com:

Tyranny comes, wearing the cloak of biosecurity and biodefense

If you’ve all been wondering about the radio silence, for the past few weeks, I’ve been working on something of a documentary that acts as a retrospective on the past couple decades of brazen lies from the authorities about biodefense and the shady characters that they’ve been giving our tax dollars to.

It’s now finished and up on Rumble and Odysee:

Rumble: COVID-19: The Biodefense Mafia

Odysee: COVID-19: The Biodefense Mafia

Transcript:

[01] – My name is Spartacus, and I’ve had enough.

[02] – In the 1960s, Jose Delgado, a Spanish neuroscientist, performed experiments where he implanted electrodes in the brains of bulls. He would then stand in front of charging bulls and bring them to a halt with a remote control that activated the power supply for these electrodes.

[03] – In 1970, he published a book entitled Physical Control of the Mind: Toward a Psychocivilized Society. In this book, he laid out a rationale for using mind control to improve the human condition, by eliminating violent crime and other acts of aggression from society.

[04] – To quote Delgado, “We need a program of psychosurgery for political control of our society. The purpose is physical control of the mind. Everyone who deviates from the given norm can be surgically mutilated. … The individual may think that the most important reality is his own existence, but this is only his personal point of view. This lacks historical perspective. Man does not have the right to develop his own mind. This kind of liberal orientation has great appeal. We must electronically control the brain. Someday, armies and generals will be controlled by electric stimulation of the brain.”

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The New Normal: Death Spirals and Speculative Frenzies, by Charles Hugh Smith

The death spirals generally follow the speculative frenzies, although timing the spirals is problematic. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

There is an element of inevitability in play, but it isn’t about central bank bailouts, it’s about Death Spirals and the collapse of unsustainable systems.

The vapid discussions about “soft” or “hard” landings for the economy are akin to asking if the Titanic’s encounter with the iceberg was “soft” or “hard:” either way, the ship was doomed, just as the global economy is doomed by The New Normal of Death Spirals and Speculative Frenzies.

Death Spirals are the inevitable result of entrenched interests clinging on to the status quo and thwarting any adaptation or evolution that might threaten or diminish their share of the swag–and that includes any real change because any consequential modification has the potential to upset the gravey train.

The status quo “solution” is to borrow and blow whatever sums are needed to satisfy every entrenched interest. Filling the federal slop-trough for all the hogs now requires borrowing a staggering $1.4 trillion every year, and billions more in municipal, county and state bonds (borrowing money via selling bonds) on the local level.

This borrow and blow strategy avoids any uncomfortable discipline and difficult trade-offs: everybody gets everything they demand.

This strategy looks “unsinkable” until the iceberg looms dead ahead. History suggests that fiscal and political discipline is eventually imposed by the real world in one fashion or another when diminishing returns enter a Death Spiral.

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The Dreaded D-Word, by Joel Bowman

In a free market economy on a gold standard, deflation is the general course. It is not something to be feared under these circumstances. From Joel Bowman at bonnerprivateresearch.com:

(Source: Getty Images)

Joel Bowman, surveying the situation today from Buenos Aires, Argentina…

Welcome to another Sunday Session, dear reader, that time of the week when we gather at the virtual saloon to solve the world’s problems, one copa de bonarda at a time…

We jest, of course. It takes a humble public servant to actually believe he/she/they can make the whole world a better place… and to do so at everyone else’s expense.

The best we mere citizens can hope for is to put one pant leg on at a time and one foot in front of the other. Small victories. Speaking of which, we hear our American readers are readying for the big game later today, baking quail egg cookies and such, if we understand Dan correctly…

We have no idea who’s in the match, what the pitch conditions are like, or which team is favored to score the most runs, but we wish everyone a fair contest all the same. (Just kidding. Go team!)

Meanwhile, the cost of this year’s Super Bowl party might come as something of a shock. Analysis by the serious-sounding team at GoBankingRates.com warns us to “get ready for the spending equivalent of being sacked for a 15-yard loss.”

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Distract, Divide and Conquer: The Painful Truth About the State of Our Union, by John and Nisha Whitehead

Biden can and does say whatever he wants, but the state of the union is not good. From John and Nisha Whitehead at rutherford.org:

Step away from the blinders that partisan politics uses to distract, divide and conquer, and you will find that we are drowning in a cesspool of problems that individually and collectively threaten our lives, liberties, prosperity and happiness.

These are not problems the politicians want to talk about, let alone address, yet we cannot afford to ignore them much longer.

Foreign interests are buying up our farmland and holding our national debt. As of 2021, foreign persons and entities owned 40.8 million acres of U.S. agricultural land, 47% of which was forestland, 29% in cropland, and 22% in pastureland. Foreign land holdings have increased by an average of 2.2 million acres per year since 2015. Foreign countries also own $7.4 trillion worth of U.S. national debt, with Japan and China ranked as our two largest foreign holders of our debt.

Corporate and governmental censorship have created digital dictators. While the “Twitter files” revealed the lengths to which the FBI has gone to monitor and censor social media content, the government has been colluding with the tech sector for some time now in order to silence its critics and target “dangerous” speech in the name of fighting so-called disinformation. The threat of being labelled “disinformation” is being used to undermine anyone who asks questions, challenges the status quo, and engages in critical thinking.

Middle- and lower-income Americans are barely keeping up. Rising costs of housing, food, gas and other necessities are presenting nearly insurmountable hurdles towards financial independence for the majority of households who are scrambling to make ends meet. Meanwhile, mounting layoffs in the tens of thousands are adding to the fiscal pain.

The government is attempting to weaponize mental health care. Increasingly, in communities across the nation, police are being empowered to forcibly detain individuals they believe might be mentally ill, even if they pose no danger to others. While these programs are ostensibly aimed at getting the homeless off the streets, when combined with the government’s ongoing efforts to predict who might pose a threat to public safety based on mental health sensor data (tracked by wearable data and monitored by government agencies such as HARPA), the specter of mental health round-ups begins to sound less far-fetched.

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So Much for Sanctions on Russia, by Ted Snider

The sanctions have not worked, and in some instances have spectacularly backfired. From Ted Snider at antiwar.com:

In February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the US orchestrated a perhaps unprecedented sanctions clampdown on Russia. A month later, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared with certainty that “the Russian economy will be devastated as a consequence of what we’ve already done.”

She was wrong. The sanctions on Russia have failed to achieve their primary goal: they have not forced Russia to end its war with Ukraine. They have even failed to achieve the means to that goal: they have not devastated the Russian economy.

Yellen boasted that “We have isolated Russia financially. The ruble has been in a free fall. The Russian stock market is closed. Russia has been effectively shut out of the international financial system.” Not one of those boasts turned out to be true.

It should not be surprising that the sanctions on Russia failed either to force a regime change or a change in the regime’s plans. Years of US led sanctions have not brought about their desired effects in Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, Syria or Russia.

Sanctions can have undesired consequences, though. In addition to frequently harming the civilian population more than the government, they can even rally the population behind that government. Sanctions can hurt the people the US is trying to help and help the government the US is trying to hurt. That has been true in the past in Russia. In The Putin Paradox, Richard Sakwa observes that, though past sanctions were meant “to shape Russian policy” or lead to “regime change,” they “tended only to reinforce solidarity around the Kremlin” while they “rallied the country behind Putin.” That seems also to be true today.

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