Category Archives: Trade

European Energy Crisis — And is That Gas You Think You’re Burning? by Tom Luongo

Like virtually all emergency shortages, the current European Energy Crisis has been created by European elites per some sort of arcane political calculations. From Tom Luongo at tomluongo.me:

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China’s Growing Maritime Empire, by Judith Bergman

The possibility that China would use its overseas commercial ports for political and military purposes cannot be dismissed. From Judith Bergman at gatestoneinstitute.org:

A grave concern regarding China’s investments in and ownership of ports worldwide is that this creates economic and political leverage for the Chinese Communist Party that can affect local policy and decision making. After China acquired much of the port of Piraeus, Greece blocked an EU statement criticizing China’s human rights record…. prevented a unified EU statement against China’s behavior in the South China Sea… and opposed tougher screenings of Chinese investments in Europe. Pictured: China’s President Xi Jinping (right) and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visit the port of Piraeus, Greece, on November 11, 2019. (Photo by Orestis Panagiotou/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

China, through investments in and ownership of ports, is expanding its global maritime reach, and its appetite for ports shows no signs of diminishing. As of July 2020, Chinese firms reportedly “(partly) owned or operated some ninety-five ports across the globe.”

Out of the 95 ports, 22 are in Europe, 20 in the Middle East and North Africa, 18 in the Americas, 18 in South and Southeast Asia, and nine in sub-Saharan Africa. Just three Chinese companies, among them COSCO Shipping Ports and China Merchants Port, two central state-owned enterprises (SOE), account for the operations of 81% of those ports.

In China, COSCO is designated as one of 53 “important backbone state-owned enterprises”, according to a February 2021 report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). The report states:

“COSCO’s status as an important backbone SOE means that it’s uniquely beholden to the CCP in a way that other SOEs aren’t… COSCO’s organisational structure includes paramilitary capabilities that can be mobilised by the Chinese regime to defeat threats to the CCP’s interests. One such capability is the company’s in-house militia…”

The majority of China’s overseas port investments and operations are concentrated in a small handful of some of China’s SOEs, especially COSCO, the world’s third-largest container carrier and the fifth largest port terminal operator.

As recently as May, COSCO signed an agreement to build a new port in Peru, close to its capital, Lima.

In June, COSCO increased its stake in the Piraeus Port Authority in Greece, to 67%. COSCO had already acquired Piraeus’s two main container terminals on a 35-year lease in 2008, and the third in 2016. Also in June, COSCO, which already owns terminals in Spain — in Valencia and Bilbao — announced that, through its Spanish subsidiary, it would be opening a new rail service for freight between Valencia and Zaragoza.

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Hedge Fund CIO: China’s Attempt To Crush Digital Assets Has Backfired Spectacularly, by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

The Chinese government’s ban of cryptocurrencies is a sign of weakness. From Eric Peters at zerohedge.com:

“Is it your intention to ban or limit the use of cryptocurrencies, like we’re seeing in China?” asked Ted Budd, Republican congressman from North Carolina. “No,” replied Fed Chairman Jay Powell. “No intention to ban them?” asked Budd again. “No intention to ban them, but stablecoins are like money market funds, they’re like bank deposits; they’re to some extent outside the regulatory perimeter, and it’s appropriate that they be regulated,” answered Powell. And as it sunk in that the world’s largest economy would not chase China to stifle private sector innovation in the field of blockchain technology, digital assets prices surged

Getting Real

The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. 59.2% of all official foreign exchange reserves are held as US dollars. 20.5% are euros. 5.8% are Japanese yen. 4.8% are British pounds sterling. 2.6% are Chinese renminbi — slightly more than the 2.2% of reserves held in Canadian dollars. 1.8% are Australian dollars. The remaining few percent are various other small currencies that don’t matter in the grand scheme of things. Swiss francs would be an example. Some reserves are held in gold. Someday, there will be digital asset reserves too.

For a foreign nation to hold dollars in reserve, it must first acquire them. It can either purchase those dollars in foreign exchange markets, or it can acquire the dollars by selling its goods, services, hard assets, or financial assets. There are consequences to such transactions. One of them is that the dollar’s value relative to other currencies is higher than it would be if these nations were not buying and holding dollars in reserve. Another is that by acquiring so many dollars and holding them in reserve, the US is forced to run a current account deficit.

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The Great Game moves on, by Alasdair Macleod

The West can no longer stop China and Russia from dominating the Eurasian land mass. At best, they can shift policy and try to keep them confined there via naval power. From Alasdair Macleod at goldmoney.com:

Following America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, her focus has switched to the Pacific with the establishment of a joint Australian and UK naval partnership.

The founder of modern geopolitical theory, Halford Mackinder, had something to say about this in his last paper, written for the Council on Foreign Relations in 1943. Mackinder anticipated this development, though the actors and their roles at that time were different. In particular, he foresaw the economic emergence of China and India and the importance of the Pacific region.

This article discusses the current situation in Mackinder’s context, taking in the consequences of green energy, the importance of trade in the Pacific region, and China’s current deflationary strategy relative to that of declining western powers aggressively pursuing asset inflation.

There is little doubt that the world is rebalancing as Mackinder described nearly eighty years ago. To appreciate it we must look beyond the West’s current economic and monetary difficulties and the loss of its hegemony over Asia, and particularly note the improving conditions of the Asia’s most populous nations.

Introduction

Following NATO’s defeat in the heart of Asia, and with Afghanistan now under the Taliban’s rule, the Chinese/Russian axis now controls the Asian continental mass. Asian nations not directly related to its joint hegemony (not being members, associates, or dialog partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) are increasingly dependent upon it for trade and technology. Sub-Saharan Africa is in its sphere of influence. The reality for America is that the total population in or associated with the SCO is 57% of the world population. And America’s grip on its European allies is slipping.

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It’s Easier to “Print” Money to Make Refrigerators, by Bill Bonner

Who needs refrigerator manufacturers and other real businesses when you’ve got a central bank? From Bill Bonner at rogueeconomics.com:

What we are wondering today is what’s ahead for the U.S. economy – inflation or deflation? Maybe the Evergrande story will give us a clue.

To fully understand the Evergrande story, you almost have to understand the whole story…

…of how, in 1971, the U.S. switched to a “flexible” dollar that it could print at will…

…and how the switch created a boom in China… and a bust in U.S. manufacturing (it’s easier to “print” money than to make refrigerators).

In an honest economy, pre-1971, the U.S. had to repatriate its dollars by offering equivalent quantities of goods and services to the Chinese…

…or risk having to settle up in gold.

Concrete River

But with the new system… it could just print up more dollars… which the Chinese, bless their hearts, used to buy U.S. bonds…

All this money created a boom in China… which quickly got out its cement trucks. The concrete flowed like the Yangtze.

We saw the construction boom on our trip to China in 2014 – a breathtaking display of human industry and material progress.

The highways were new. The buildings were new. The trains… docks… factories – all new. You could scarcely find a house more than 18 months old.

Never in the history of the world had so many people gone from being so poor to so rich in so short a time. Per capita income rose from $318 in 1990 to $10,500 in 2020.

And never in history had so much money been borrowed to make it happen. From $1.7 trillion of total debt in 2000, China now owes nearly $50 trillion. Its debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 335%.

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Supply Chain Shipping Hell: ‘Just Get Me a Box’ Says Logistics Manager, by Mike Mish Shedlock

Shipping containers stacked high on container ships have become the symbol of international commerce. Now that trade is grinding to a half because of container supply constraints. From Mike Mish Shedlock at mishtalk.com:

Two years ago, the cost for a 40-foot container to transport goods from Asia to the U.S was under $2,000. Today it’s as much as $25,000.

When I saw this Bloomberg headline I thought it was about cardboard boxes. Instead, ‘Just Get Me a Box‘ is about shipping containers.

It’s mid-August, and logistics manager RoxAnne Thomas’s phone won’t stop pinging. Her faucets, sinks, and toilets are waylaid near Shanghai, snagged in Vancouver, and buried under a pile of shipping containers in a rail yard outside Chicago.

“Every step of the process, there’s still backlog,” said Thomas, 41, in one of several interviews from late July through August. “The beginning of the supply chain in China—I don’t think that’s going to get better for a year.” And the outlook more broadly? “A year and a half before things are truly back to normal.”

Although the pandemic has shuttered factories and shaken supplies of raw materials, Thomas’s chief challenge is freight, and it starts with what used to be cheap, plentiful commodities: shipping containers.

Two years ago, a 40-foot container cost less than $2,000 to transport goods from Asia to the U.S. Today the service fetches as much as $25,000 if an importer pays a premium for on-time delivery, which is a luxury.

The fear is we’re ordering all this stuff for demand, and the demand is going to fizzle out before the product gets here,” Thomas says. With summer winding down, the big test of the global trading system’s resilience might still be ahead.

Bloomberg also reports Commodity Shipping Rates Post Biggest Daily Gain in a Decade

Average rates for giant Capesize bulk carriers — which can carry products like coal, iron ore and grains — jumped by $6,700 a day on Monday, the most since 2010, as owners continue to benefit from strong demand for raw materials. The rally extended Tuesday, pushing the daily rate to almost $53,700, the highest level in 11 years, Baltic Exchange data show.

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Business Travel, Conventions, Office Occupancy Stuck in Collapse: Been so Long, People Forgot What Old Normal Was, by Wolf Richter

Covid has changed the way business operates, probably for good. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

Hotel business travel revenues expected to be down by 80% at top 20 destinations in 2021.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Even as American leisure travelers have been out in force, for US hotels, the all-important and lucrative business travel revenues – corporate, group, government, and other commercial travel – are expected to be down by $59 billion in 2021 from 2019, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association (AHLA) and Kalibri Labs today.

For the 20 largest destinations in the US, hotel business travel revenues are expected to collapse by 80% from $38 billion in 2019 to $7.6 billion in 2021, according to AHLA data.

The largest destination, the New York City metro, is expected to see an 88% collapse in annual hotel business travel revenues, from $4.6 billion in 2019 to a projected $531 million in 2021.

In Orlando, the second largest destination in 2019, annual hotel business travel revenues are expected to collapse by 81%, from $2.8 billion in 2019 to a projected $518 million in 2021.

The third largest destination, the Washington D.C. metro, is expected to see an 86% collapse in hotel business travel revenues, from $2.7 billion in 2019 to $371 million in 2021.

These are the largest 20 destinations by business travel hotel revenues in 2019, the projected year-total revenues for 2021, and the percentage difference:

20 Largest Business Travel Destinations Business Travel Hotel Revenue, Million $ % Plunge
2019 2021 projected
New York 4,560 531 -88%
Orlando 2,796 518 -81%
Washington, DC metro 2,741 371 -86%
Los Angeles 2,683 752 -72%
San Francisco 2,531 178 -93%
Chicago 2,528 346 -86%
Las Vegas 2,326 670 -71%
Boston 1,672 191 -89%
Atlanta 1,671 491 -71%
Dallas 1,611 460 -71%
San Diego 1,611 395 -76%
Hawaiian Islands 1,530 346 -77%
Phoenix 1,349 380 -72%
Miami 1,327 497 -63%
Houston 1,291 412 -68%
Seattle 1,241 193 -84%
San Jose 1,227 176 -86%
Anaheim 1,155 256 -78%
Denver 1,087 237 -78%
Nashville 981 238 -76%
Total 37,919 7,640 -80%

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Breaking From Cycles of Destruction by Leaping to a Multipolar Future, by Matthew Ehret

Maybe the US empire isn’t in the interest of anybody, including the US. From Matthew Ehret at strategic-culture.org:

The Multipolar Alliance has demonstrated a profound understanding of the oncoming collapse and has made many maneuvers to establish a new financial, security, economic architecture, Matt Ehret writes.

During the past weeks, the world saw Eurasian nations take great strides towards the inevitable creation of an alternative financial system capable of withstanding the effects of the onrushing blowout of the $1.5 quadrillion bubble that some still wish to call the “western banking system”.

Contrasted with those ideologues committed to preserving the unipolar hegemon propels in a bid towards hyperinflationary (and possibly thermonuclear) hell, the BRICS nations have announced three new members (UAE, Bangladesh and Uruguay) to the membership roster of the New Development Bank. Additionally Russian ambitions for a new Arctic development vision that entails a multi-generational grand design for the far east and northern-most regions of Eurasia has also created a climate of long term thinking that is in total synergy with China’s 130-nation strong Belt and Road Initiative.

The Roots of the Oncoming Collapse

While many a myopic economist treat the oncoming collapse of the western banking system as a non-event (or the unavoidable effects of a pandemic), the reality is that this blowout has been a long time coming. Events associated with the Coronavirus-induced economic shutdown may prove to be the pin prick that blows the bubble, COVID-19 cannot be said by any honest person to be the actual “cause”.

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These Dangers Loom Over The Fragile US Economy In The Next 12 Months, by Tyler Durden

It’s like watching a slow motion train wreck. From Brandon Smith at alt-market.us

This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group

The U.S. and most of the world is at the threshold of what I would call a nexus point in history. There are establishment forces at play that seek to impose a permanent authoritarian presence within our nation in the name of Covid “safety.” This includes lockdown mandates and restrictions on economic participation for the unvaccinated (including being unable to keep a job).

At the same time, only 53% of the public has been fully vaccinated against Covid. A significant number of the unvaccinated seem likely to dig in their heels and will refuse to comply.

We are at an impasse. With incessant fear mongering over the latest covid variants and the government obsession with 100% vaccination, the pro- and anti-vaccine groups are squaring off .  It is a conflict between those who see their submission to the vaccination as a badge of personal responsibility and civic-mindedness versus those who see it as merely an excuse for authoritarianism. Unless pro-vax people choose to stand down and walk away from the fight, our economic future will grow increasingly unstable.

This is the foreboding backdrop of our economic tale, and it is important to keep in mind that the technocratic exploitation of the covid non-crisis as a push for supremacy is going to color EVERYTHING that happens in our financial system from now on. You cannot talk about our economic condition without including the effects of the pandemic theater.

I believe that the next year in particular is going to be adrenalized and chaotic beyond what we have already seen in 2020-2021. Like I said, there are two sides of America that are now completely opposed in almost every way. Something is going to snap, and I suspect this will happen in 12 months or less.

The U.S. economy is itself an underlying disaster in the making and in many ways the Covid issue is a convenient distraction away from a much larger threat.

Let’s not forget that since the credit crash of 2007-2008 America and most other nations have been surviving on pure monetary deferment. That is to say, not a single problem unmasked in 2008 has been dealt with or solved by the central bankers in the 13 years since. All of the destructive factors were delayed by money printing rather than being fixed. Writing a new post-dated check to cover your last check only works as long as your creditor is willing to cooperate…

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A Military Solution to a Commercial Problem, by Fred Reed

America makes armaments; China builds lots of things peaceful people the world over want. From Fred Reed at unz.com:

It Probably Ain’t Gonna Work Much Longer

In pondering Washington’s new toy, a cold war against China, one sees a pattern. China’s approach to influence and prosperity is commercial and longsighted. This does not mean that the Chinese are warm and fuzzy, only intelligent. They advance their interests while turning a profit, which wars don’t. China invests heavily in the infrastructure, both physical and educational, that makes for current and future competitiveness. They are fast, agile, innovative, and imperfectly scrupulous. They seek trade agreements: The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with Europe, The RCEP, Regional comprehensive Economic Partnership, the CPEC, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the huge Iran deal, the development with Russia of the NSR, the Northern Sea Route. They seem good at it, China now being the largest trading partner of something like 165 countries.

Washington’s approach is military, coercive, shortsighted, and commercially dimwitted. It forms military alliances: the Quad in the Indian Ocean, with Japan against China, puts missiles in South Korea, pushes Europe to buy more American weaponry, sends naval forces to the Indian Ocean, Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, Black Sea, and Persian Gulf to intimidate, without much success, China, Russia, and Iran. It wants to get the Ukraine and Georgia into NATO to threaten Russia. It makes as much sense as lug nuts on a birthday cake.

China’s major capital expenditures, as gleaned as best I can from pubs covering these: highways, dams, bridges, very-high-voltage power lines, airports, rail, new high-tech 360 mph rail, five-g implementation, reactors, and semiconductor catchup.

America’s major capital expenditures: the B-21, F-35, Virginia-class subs, , Ford-class aircraft carriers, SSN (x) attack submarine. Biden says he will build infrastructure but, if history is a guide, he will pander to the woke, fight systemic racism, promote LBGQXYZ, become mired in congressional infighting, and the whole thing will devolve into pork. Want to bet?

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