Tag Archives: US budget deficit

All (Political) Roads Lead To Massively Higher Government Spending, by John Rubino

All of the revolutions, quasi-revolutions, and proposed revolutions out there are pushing for higher spending and less taxes. That’s problematic when the overthrown governments are deeply in debt. From John Rubino at dollarcollapse.com:

The past few years have seen more than the usual amount of political upheaval. But, interestingly, most regime changes have resulted in pretty much the same thing: Higher government spending and bigger deficits.

Apparently the only “reforms” today’s voters will accept – which is to say the only actions that don’t get a leader kicked out of office – involve spending rather than saving money.

Three recent examples:

The US
Republicans – the party of smaller government – gained control of the White House and Congress in 2016, and proceeded to take a meat ax to bloated entitlements, lowering the government’s share of the economy to levels not seen since the Reagan years.

Just kidding. They tried to eliminate the newest entitlement, Obamacare, but failed to produce even a coherent proposal. So instead they cut taxes, expanded the military and left everything else on autopilot. Now, nine years into a recovery with official unemployment below 4% — and with the small-government party in charge:

U.S. budget deficit approaches $1 trillion

(MarketWatch) – The Treasury Department says that adjusted for timing-related transactions, the deficit would have been $270 billion over the last two months compared to $250 billion during the same period the prior year, with tax revenue up by 1% but spending up by 4%.

The budget picture is deteriorating as the U.S. taxes individuals and companies less and spends more, mostly on defense and benefit payments to an aging population. Though a growing economy is softening the blow, it’s possible that the annual deficit will top $1 trillion this year.

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U.S. on a Course to Spend More on Debt Than Defense, by Kate Davidson and Daniel Kruger

There’s no stopping compounding interest, and the US government is on the wrong side, the paying side, of it. From Kate Davidson and Daniel Kruger at wsj.com:

In the past decade, U.S. debt held by the public has risen to $15.9 trillion from $5.1 trillion, but financing all of that debt hasn’t been a problem. Low inflation and strong global demand for safe U.S. Treasury bonds held the government’s interest costs down.

That’s in the process of changing.

In 2017, interest costs on federal debt of $263 billion accounted for 6.6% of all government spending and 1.4% of gross domestic product, well below averages of the previous 50 years. The Congressional Budget Office estimates interest spending will rise to $915 billion by 2028, or 13% of all outlays and 3.1% of gross domestic product.

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Looming Dollar Shortage Getting Worse As Emerging Markets Implode, by Adem Tumerkan

US deficits and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening are sucking dollars out of the international financial system, to the detriment of emerging markets. From Adem Tumerkan at palisade-research.com:

One of the most important macro-situations that’s developing right now is the looming U.S. dollar shortage.

I don’t mean in the sense that banks don’t have enough dollars to lend out – I’m talking about the foreign sovereign markets.

Here are some of the things that’s causing liquidity to dry up. . .

1. Soaring U.S. deficits – the United States’ need for constant funding is requiring huge amounts of capital

2. A strengthening U.S. Dollar – which is weakening the rest of the worlds currencies

3. Rising U.S. short-term rates and LIBOR rates – courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s tightening

4. The Fed’s quantitative tightening program – unwinding their balance sheet by selling bonds

These four things are making global markets extremely fragile. . .

I’ve written about this dollar shortage before – but things are getting much worse.

As a recap of why this all matters – when the U.S. buys goods from abroad, they are taking in goods and sending out dollars. Otherwise said, they are selling dollars out of the country in return for goods.

Those countries that sold to America now have dollars in return. But since countries don’t have a mattress to store their money under – they must find liquid and ‘safe’ places to put it.

With the dollar as the world’s reserve currency – and U.S. treasury market being the most liquid – countries usually take the dollars and funnel them back into the U.S. via buying bonds.

Since the U.S. is a net-debtor – inflows of new money is constantly required to pay out outstanding bills. So there’s always fresh debt that foreigners can buy.

And if you haven’t checked lately, the national debt is over $21 trillion – and growing faster. The latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report stated that at the current rate – U.S. debt-to-GDP will be over 100% by 2028 (if not sooner).

So how does this tie into a dollar shortage?

Let me break it down. . .

The always-rapidly-growing U.S. deficit requires constant funding from foreigners. But with the Federal Reserve raising rates and unwinding their balance sheet through Quantitative Tightening (QT) – meaning they’re sucking money out of the banking system.

These two situations are creating the shortage abroad. The U.S. Treasury’s soaking up more dollars at a time when the Fed is sucking capital out of the economy.

Not too mention the strengthening dollar and higher short-term yields are making it more difficult for foreigners to borrow in dollars. Especially at a time when Emerging Market’s are imploding.

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