Tag Archives: China

From the Notebook: A Critical Shift in the War for Oil, by Tom Luongo

Posted on May 29, 2021 | Leave a comment

The Russia-China-Iran axis is now the strongest entity in the Middle East, and that will of course effect the supply and price of oil. From Tom Luongo at tomluongo.me:

Davos really do think they are too clever by half. Despite prognostications to the contrary, negotiations with Iran over a new JCPOA are nearing completion which Biden/Obama will sign off on after putting up a bit more token resistance to lifting sanctions.

Why do I say this? Nordstream 2.

Biden backed down on Nordstream 2 and, at The Davos Crowd’s insistence, he will back down on the JCPOA.

Davos needs cheap energy into Europe. That’s ultimately what the JCPOA was all about. The basic framework for the deal is still there. While the U.S. will kick and scream a bit about sanctions relief, Iran will be back into the oil market and make it possible for Europe to once again invest in oil/gas projects in Iran.

Now that Benjamin Netanyahu is no longer going to be leading Israel, the probability of breakthrough is much much higher than last week. The Likudniks in Congress and the Senate just lost their raison d’etre. The loss of face for Israel in Bibi’s latest attempt to bludgeon Gaza to retain power backfired completely.

U.S. policy towards Israel is shifting rapidly as the younger generations, Gen-X and Millennials, simply don’t have the same allegiance to Israel that the Baby Boomers and Silent generations did. It is part of a geopolitical ethos which is outdated.

So, with some deal over Iran’s nuclear capability in the near future, Europe will then get gas pipelines from Iran through Turkey as well as gain better access to the North South Transport Corridor which is now unofficially part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Russia, now that Nordstream 2 is nearly done, will not balk at this. In fact, they’ll welcome it. It forms the basis for a broader, sustainable peace arrangement in the Middle East. What’s lost is the Zionist program for Greater Israel and continued sowing dissent between exhausted participants.

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Washington is playing a losing game with China, by Chas Freeman

Posted on May 29, 2021 | Leave a comment

You’re not going to “defeat” China’s ascendant economy through military means. From Chas Freeman at responsiblestatecraft.org:

To hold its own with China, the United States must renew its competitive capacity and build a demonstrably better governed society.

Washington would be easy to spot in a game of chess. It’s the player with no plan beyond an aggressive opening. That is no strategy at all. The failure to think several moves ahead matters.

Washington developed some well-founded complaints about Chinese economic behaviour — and launched a trade war. Washington was alarmed about China’s potential to outcompete America — and tried to cripple it with an escalating campaign of ‘maximum pressure’. Washington saw China as a threat to US military primacy — and sought to contain it.

US farmers have lost most of their US$24 billion Chinese market. US companies have had to accept lower profits, cut wages and jobs, defer wage hikes, and raise prices for American consumers. The US shift to managed trade has cost an estimated 245,000 American jobs, while shaving about US$320 billion off US GDP. American families are paying as much as US$1,277 more a year on average for consumer goods. There has been almost no reshoring of American jobs outsourced to China. The United States can expect job losses of 320,000 by 2025 and a GDP US$1.6 trillion less than it would have been.

China’s overall trade surplus rose to a new high of US$535 billion in 2020. Beijing improved its position by lowering barriers, striking free trade deals with countries other than the United States, and sponsoring a trade dispute-settlement mechanism to replace the US-sabotaged WTO.

China is not breaking stride. It is investing 8 per cent more each year in education. China already accounts for a quarter of the world’s STEM workforce. Its science investment is almost on par with that of the United States and rising at an annual rate of 10 per cent as America’s falls. Its infrastructure is universally envied. China accounts for 30 per cent of global manufactures, versus America’s 16 per cent, and the gap is growing. It became the world’s largest consumer market in 2020. Its economy is ferociously competitive. China has many problems, but it has its act together and appears on top of them.

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Posted in Economics, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Governments, History, Military

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Not Even Past: Dan Ellsberg vs. New Madmen’s Theories of Cold War & Press Suppression, by Danny Sjursen

Posted on May 27, 2021 | Leave a comment

At the age of 90, Daniel Ellsberg is once again disclosing disturbing government documents to make broader points about US foreign policy. From Danny Sjursen at antiwar.com:

Once upon a time, the United States of America – the world’s self-styled “beacon of democracy” – nearly nuked China’s then 600 millions worth of innocents. This, before Beijing even had any A-Bombs of its own. Well, that much we’ve known, in broad strokes – though, I fear, without the requisite resultant soul-searching – since historian Gordon Chang’s 1988 journal article (which I was assigned in graduate school en-route to West Point’s faculty): “JFK, China, and the Bomb.”

Chang’s peer-reviewed scholarly submission made waves – at least in academia – by disclosing the rather profound fact that the Kennedy administration apparently seriously considered colluding with even the Soviets to, per a later erudite authorial follow-up, “Strangle the Baby in the Cradle.” In other words, to coerce China into abandoning its nascent nuclear program – and if necessary destroy it (even with hydrogen bombs) – before Beijing could produce a viable weapon.

That was circa 1961-64. Ultimately, the Chinese did test their first bomb in October of the latter year. And you know what? Nothing much happened – little changed, America endured, the world didn’t end. If only those poor souls – and their no longer truly communist descendants – knew they came so close to being needlessly sacrificed, or never existing, on the altar of U.S. strategic absurdity.

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Russell Brand In Viral Video Destroys MSM & Silicon Valley For Hiding “Troubling” Hunter Biden News, by Tyler Durden

Posted on May 26, 2021 | Leave a comment

It’s rare when a member of the celebrity set goes against the prevailing propaganda . . . on anything. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

In a rare and refreshing interview which on YouTube has garnered 100,000 views in less than 24 hours, British comedian and actor Russell Brand and former Intercept journalist Glenn Greenwald teamed up to explain last year’s scandalous coordination by the mainstream media and social media companies to ensure the Hunter Biden laptop story and accompanying revelations over the Hunter-Ukrainian Burisma energy company scandal never reached broader public view.

“I’m not a pro-Republican person,” Brand introduced while talking to Greenwald on his YouTube channel. “I don’t see myself that way. I don’t see myself as conservative, or that I’m in a Trump, or Giuliani, or the  kind of media establishments that were reporting on these revelations [about Biden’s family]. They are not my cultural, social, or political allies. That’s certainly not how I see myself.” And then he blasted away: “However, it seems to me — what reason is Hunter Biden sat on the board of an energy company in… Ukraine?” he questioned. “What reason is James Biden sat on the board, or receiving payments from an energy company, in China?”

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As Seeming Consensus Hardens for Cold – or Even Hot – War Against China, by Doug Bandow

Posted on May 24, 2021 | Leave a comment

There’s no real good reason for any kind of war with China. From Doug Bandow at antiwar.com:

It Becomes Ever More Important to Fight for Peace

What a difference a presidential campaign and deadly pandemic make. Although the U.S. and People’s Republic of China long had been at odds over important issues, the bilateral relationship remained civil if not always friendly. Despite occasional spats, no one imagined a cold war, let alone actual hostilities. But 2020 changed everything. Today the possibility of conflict is on many Americans’ minds.

Moreover, the chance of war remains as great today as under the Trump administration. Chinese-American writer Nina Luo observed that after Joe Biden’s victory she “felt a sudden sense of relief. The days of ‘the China virus’ rhetoric from the White House were over.” But her optimism soon dissipated, and she observed that “long before Trump took office, xenophobia, anti-Asian racism, and Yellow Peril-style propaganda served as useful tools to advance American domestic and foreign policy goals.”

Particularly noteworthy is the latter. Scaremongering is pushing Washington toward conflict with Beijing. Observed Luo: “In recent decades, the defense industry has perfected this rhetoric to make the case for war on China. Republicans and Democrats – including both President Biden and even our most progressive members of Congress – amplify the warmongering and push for increased defense spending.”

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The Biological War Against China, by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.

Posted on May 19, 2021 | Leave a comment

There is another theory about where the coronavirus came from. It’s nowhere near as popular with Americans as theory that it came from a Wujan lab and was either accidentally or deliberately released by the Chinese government. From Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. at lewrockwell.com:

In the time since Biden and Harris have been in power, after they stole the election from President Trump, things have gotten much worse than before the election. At that time the American economy had been shut down by foolish government orders, but now rather than end all controls and allow the free market to operate unhindered, massive government spending gives subsidies to people and businesses while they remain idle. The insights of Mises and Rothbard tell us an inflationary boom is inevitable and that complete collapse is only a matter of time. In an earlier column, I warned that the deep state might seek to start a war with China to divert attention from our domestic mess. As I warned, “Because the epidemic started in China and spread from there, hostility toward Chinese people living in the US has gone up. Chinese-owned stores have been threatened, and gun sales to Chinese who fear attacks have soared. Chinese restaurants are nearly empty.”

Biden has continued the hostile policy toward China of the previous administration, and some fear that the government may provoke a war with China in order to distract attention from a tanking US economy. US government propaganda has spread false claims about predatory Chinese trade practices to get the American people ready for hostile action toward China.

But today I want to focus on something even more sinister. There is good reason to believe that the coronavirus epidemic is part of an American biological warfare campaign against China and Iran. The brilliant physicist Ron Unz, who has time and time again been proved right by events, makes this case in a scintillating analysis.

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The US, China, and the Geopolitical Battle for Monetary Dominance, by Nick Giambruno

Posted on May 15, 2021 | Leave a comment

Traditionally the world’s strongest power has the world’s reserve currency. From Nick Giambruno at internationalman.com:

Geopolitical Battle for Monetary Dominance

International Man: In a recent interview, we discussed the battle for monetary supremacy between fiat, bitcoin, and gold—but in the geopolitical sense, the country with the “best” money ultimately imposes its dominance on others.

Today, the US dollar is still the global reserve currency, but the US fiscal and monetary policy now resembles the destructive money printing of every other country.

What does this mean for the US and its financial chokehold on the rest of the world?

Nick Giambruno: First, I think it’s important to clarify something.

You often hear the media, politicians, and financial analysts toss around the word trillion without appreciating what it really means.

A trillion is an enormous, almost incomprehensible number.

The human mind has trouble wrapping itself around something so big. So let me try to put it into perspective.

One million seconds ago was about 11 days ago.

One billion seconds ago was 1989.

One trillion seconds ago was 30,000 BC.

So that’s how big a trillion is.

When politicians carelessly spend and print money in the trillions, you know you’re in dangerous territory. That’s precisely what is happening in the US right now.

After the onset of the COVID hysteria, the US government adopted a policy of printing money to finance growing multi-trillion-dollar deficits forever. This is what Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is all about, and it’s already here.

Likewise, the COVID stimulus checks are the beginnings of a Universal Basic Income (UBI). There is no way any politician will ever be able to roll them back, much less stop them entirely. Who is going to beat Santa Claus in an election?

By embracing MMT and a UBI, the US has embarked on the most dangerous economic experiment since communism.

Eventually, all this spending financed by money printing will destroy the currency.

This is precisely the same problem that has trapped Argentina in a perpetual cycle of hyperinflation and economic collapse. And even then, it’s politically impossible to get rid of the freebies, so the process starts up again.

Here’s the bottom line. With MMT and a UBI, the US has gone beyond the monetary point of no return.

That’s why individuals, companies, and foreign governments will inevitably look to alternatives to the US dollar and financial system. As they do, a large part of the US government’s geopolitical leverage will evaporate.

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Posted in Banking, Business, Collapse, Currencies, Debt, Economics, Economy, Governments

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Butting Heads With China and Russia: American Diplomats Are Outclassed, by Philip Giraldi

Posted on May 14, 2021 | 1 comment

In a little over three months, the Biden administration’s foreign policy team has made a complete hash of foreign policy. From Philip Giraldi at strategic-culture.org:

United State engagement in complicated overseas quarrels should be limited to areas where genuine vital interests are at stake.

With the exception of the impending departure of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, if it occurs, the White House seems to prefer to use aggression to deter adversaries rather than finesse. The recent exchanges between Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a meeting in Alaska demonstrate how Beijing has a clear view of its interests which Washington seems to lack. Blinken initiated the acrimonious exchange when he cited “deep concerns with actions by China, including in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, cyber attacks on the United States, economic coercion toward our allies. Each of these actions threaten the rules-based order that maintains global stability. That’s why they’re not merely internal matters, and why we feel an obligation to raise these issues here today.” He then threatened “I said that the United States relationship with China will be competitive where it should be, collaborative where it can be, adversarial where it must be” before adding “I’m hearing deep satisfaction that the United States is back, that we’re reengaged with our allies and partners. I’m also hearing deep concern about some of the actions your government is taking.”

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Insider View: The Tragedy of the U.S. Deep State, by Pepe Escobar

Posted on May 13, 2021 | 1 comment

All the plans and schemes of those who see the world in terms of the balance of power and try to arrange it to their own advantage generally don’t succeed, and the world suffers for it. From Pepe Escobar at strategic-culture.org:

Pepe Escobar explains why Henry Kissinger must have lost the diplomatic plot.

Henry Kissinger, 97, Henry the K. for those he keeps close, is either a Delphic oracle-style strategic thinker or a certified war criminal for those kept not so close.

He now seems to have been taking time off his usual Divide and Rule stock in trade – advising the combo behind POTUS, a.k.a. Crash Test Dummy – to emit some realpolitik pearls of wisdom.

At a recent forum in Arizona, referring to the festering, larger than life Sino-American clash, Henry the K. said, “It’s the biggest problem for America; it’s the biggest problem for the world. Because if we can’t solve that, then the risk is that all over the world a kind of cold war will develop between China and the United States.”

In realpolitik terms, this “kind of Cold War” is already on; across the Beltway, China is unanimously regarded as the premier U.S. national security threat.

Kissinger added U.S. policy toward China must be a mix of stressing U.S. “principles” to demand China’s respect and dialogue to find areas of cooperation: “I’m not saying that diplomacy will always lead to beneficial results…This is the complex task we have… Nobody has succeeded in doing it completely.”

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A Dolorous Imbalance, by Fred Reed

Posted on May 12, 2021 | 1 comment

The Chinese are kicking America’s butt in a lot of different fields of economic endeavor. From Fred Reed at unz.com:

First, America increasingly relies on strong-arm tactics instead of competence. For example, in the de facto 5G competition, Washington cannot offer Europe a better product at a better price, so it forbids European countries to buy from China. The US cannot compete with China in manufacturing, so it resorts to a trade war. The US cannot make the crucial EUV lithography equipment to make advanced semiconductors, as neither can China, but it can forbid ASML, the Dutch company, from selling to China. Similarly, the US cannot compete with Russia in the price of natural gas to Europe, so by means of sanctions it seeks to keep Europe from buying from Russia. This is not reassuring.

Second, the Chinese are a commercial people, agile, fast to market, cutthroat, known for this throughout Asia. America is a bureaucratized military empire, torpid by comparison. America has legacy control over a few important technologies, most notably the crucial semiconductor field and the international financial system. Washington is using these to try to cripple China’s advance.

A consequence has been a realization by the Chinese that America is not a competitor but an enemy, and a subsequent explosion of investment and R&D aimed at reducing dependence on American technology. There is the well-known 1.4 trillion-dollar five-year plan to this end. One now encounters a flood of stories about advances in tech “to which China has intellectual-property rights” or similar wording.

They seem deadly serious about this. Given that Biden couldn’t tell a transistor from an ox cart, I wonder whether he realizes that every time the US pushes China to become independent in x, American firms lose the Chinese market for X, and later get to compete with Chinese X in the international market. Anyway, give Trump his due. He lit this fuse.

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Posted in Business, Government, Science, Technology, Trade

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