Tag Archives: deflation

From Ol’ Remus on the coming deflation

Ol’ Remus and SLL are in agreement: it’s going to be bad. From Ol’ Remus at woodpilereport.com:

Imagine a deflation so severe, so catastrophic and long-lasting, with so many banks collapsing that cash all but ceased to circulate. Imagine towns and cities so desperate for physical currency they printed their own . Imagine cash having measurably more buying power with each passing week. Imagine half of all banks closing their doors forever. Imagine surviving banks making a dependable and risk-free real profit from money they didn’t lend. This was the Depression, and it lasted for about a decade.

Before the Crash of 1929 there had been pullbacks, in 1923 and again in 1926, significant but short, each lasting a year, each followed by greater expansion than before. Soon everything that wasn’t agriculture became a bubble. It’s understandable, everything was new—radio, paved highways, movies with sound, refrigerators, air travel and skyscrapers—it was the dawning of a new era with an incandescently bright future.

The forward looking would be the foremost citizens of this new era, which meant buying in. And buy in they did. Mortgages, car loans, time payments—and for 16% of the population, stocks on margin.

If the crash was unimaginable, the follow-on catastrophe was unthinkable. The economy immediately contracted in one memorable spasm. In mere weeks the future went from daydreams of opulent splendor to a search for lost change in the couch cushions. The middle class became the poor, the poor became the destitute. Then it got worse. The gross national product declined by a third. Trust in government and finance crumbled away. Populism ran the table. Regime change was in the air.

Today a dark consensus is forming of a similar debacle, probably in the fourth quarter, possibly sooner. The evidence is compelling: record highs in the stock market supported by inflation* and bubbles and the Plunge Protection Team, a Shiller price-earnings ratio at 29x, negative returns for the bottom 250 of the SP500, accelerating consumer and retail bankruptcies. Major crimes on Wall Street and in DC go uninvestigated, trust in government and finance is in the single digits, unsold new and used cars are constipating the pipeline, real unemployment is far above official numbers, and the middle class is tapped out.

It’s a given the stock exchanges will crash. Beneath the financial highway lies an ever-growing sinkhole and one day the market will be overweight enough to crash through. Price discovery will have been served at last. The prudent are thinking past it to second order events, where the demons live.

More photos from the Crash of ’29 will appear in upcoming Woodpile Reports.

* Inflation since 1929 is 1,330%. This gives an idea of how severe a runaway deflation could be. Using 1929 as the base, if we squeezed the accumulated inflation out of it, a twenty dollar bill would be worth $286 in purchasing power.


Does the World End in Fire or Ice? Thoughts on Japan and the Inflation/Deflation Debate, by Charles Hugh Smith

SLL actually doesn’t think there’s much of an inflation/deflation debate. Gigantic debt bubbles pop and when they do, it’s invariably deflationary. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

Japan has managed to offset decades of deflationary dynamics, but at a cost that is hidden beneath the surface of apparent stability.
Do we implode in a deflationary death spiral (ice) or in an inflationary death spiral (fire)? Debating the question has been a popular parlor game for years, with Eric Janszen’s 1999 Ka-Poom Deflation/Inflation Theory often anchoring the discussion.
I invite everyone interested in the debate to read Janszen’s reasoning and prediction of a deflationary spiral that then triggers a monstrous inflationary response from central banks/states desperate to prop up their faltering status quo.
Alternatively, economies can skip the deflationary spiral and move directly to the collapse of their currency via hyper-inflation. This chart of the Venezuelan currency (Bolivar) illustrates the “skip deflation, go straight to hyper-inflation” pathway:
If we set aside the many financial rabbit holes of the inflation/deflation discussion, we find three dominant non-financial dynamics in play:demographics, technology and energy.
As populations age and retire, the resulting decline in incomes and spending are inherently deflationary: less money is earned, and less money is spent, reducing economic activity (gross domestic product).
The elderly also sell assets such as stocks, bonds and their primary house to fund their retirement, and if the elderly populace is a major cohort (due to low birth rates and increasing life spans, etc.), then this mass dumping of assets is also deflationary, as the increasing supply of sellers and the stagnating supply of buyers pushes prices lower.

The New Middle Kingdom Of Concrete And The Red Depression Ahead, by David Stockman

Ponder the statistics in this piece and ponder if they have deflationary or inflationary implications. Choose wisely. From David Stockman at davidstockmanscontracorner.com:

No wonder the Red Ponzi consumed more cement during three years (2011-2013) than did the US during the entire twentieth century. Enabled by an endless $30 trillion flow of credit from its state controlled banking apparatus and its shadow banking affiliates, China went berserk building factories, warehouses, ports, office towers, malls, apartments, roads, airports, train stations, high speed railways, stadiums, monumental public buildings and much more.

If you want an analogy, 6.6 gigatons of cement is 14.5 trillion pounds. The Hoover dam used about 1.8 billion pounds of cement. So in 3 years China consumed enough cement to build the Hoover dam 8,000 times over—-160 of them for every state in the union!

Having spent the last ten days in China, I can well and truly say that the Middle Kingdom is back. But its leitmotif is the very opposite to the splendor of the Forbidden City.

The Middle Kingdom has been reborn in towers of preformed concrete. They rise in their tens of thousands in every direction on the horizon. They are connected with ribbons of highways which are scalloped and molded to wind through the endless forest of concrete verticals. Some of them are occupied. Alot, not.

To continue reading: The New Middle Kingdom Of Concrete And The Red Depression Ahead

Deflation Is Coming To The Auto Industry As Used Car Prices Drop, Off-Lease Deluge Looms, by Tyler Durden

Here’s yet another deflation alert (they’re coming fast and furious). From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Last week, we learned that vehicle leasing as a percentage of monthly light-vehicle sales hit a record in February at 32.3%.

In other words, a third of the over 1 million cars and light trucks “sold” during the month were leases, according to J.D. Power.

This is indicative of what is now a long-term trend. Have a look at the following chart from WSJ, which shows that since 2009, the share of monthly auto leases as a percentage of vehicle sales well more than tripled:

Of course the thing about leased vehicles is that they come back, and as WSJ wrote last week, “about 3.1 million vehicles will return to dealer lots off leases this year, up 20% from 2015 [and] the number will climb to 3.6 million in 2017 and 4 million in 2018.”

So what does that mean for dealers? Deflation.

And what does that mean for the automakers? Hefty losses.

Nothing about this is hard to understand. You get a supply glut causing pricing assumptions for your existing inventory to prove wildly optimistic and you end up with giant writedowns.

This has happened before. “The auto industry expanded the use of leasing in the mid-1990s, helping to fuel retail sales of new vehicles,” WSJ recounts. “Eventually, a glut of off-lease cars sent resale values down and auto lenders who had bet residuals would remain high ended up racking up billions of dollars in losses, having to sell the cars for much less than they anticipated.”

Right. Nothing difficult to grasp about that. But the especially silly thing about the dynamic with auto leases is that it was the dealers and the automaker-affiliated financing companies that made the leases in the first place. In other words, it’s not like this was some supply shock that couldn’t have been forecast ahead of time. In fact, they knew exactly when the off-lease deluge would start, so it’s not entirely clear why they would have set optimistic residual assumptions.

Anyway, the cracks are already starting to show.

To continue reading: Deflation Is Coming To The Auto Industry As Used Car Prices Drop, Off-Lease Deluge Looms

America’s #1 Import: Deflation, by Matt Matias Tavares

From Matt Matias Tavares of Sinclair & Co. at linkedin.com:

It seems that everyone these days is exporting deflation to the US.

The drop in commodity prices and the US dollar rally versus a broad basket of currencies in recent years had a big impact of course, but the magnitude of the decline of US import prices has been very significant indeed. And this matters for many reasons.

Competition for the all-important US consumer remains fierce, as exporting countries devalue their currency and/or further reduce their costs to maintain market share. While imports represent a relatively small percentage of US GDP (typically <17%), the technocrats at the Federal Reserve will now have to work harder to fan the flames of inflation across the economy (hint: not by continuing to raise interest rates…). Moreover, these price patterns suggest that all is certainly not well in the global economy.

The graph above shows the evolution of selected US import price indices by country of origin since January 2009 (=100), when the world was in the throes of the great recession, as provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The dotted line shows total import prices excluding oil, to isolate the direct impact of the recent collapse in crude oil prices. After staging a post-crisis rally, prices of overall imports pretty much remained in a range between mid-2011 and mid-2014. But then something happened: the US dollar started to rally hard and that price index quickly went the other way.

To continue reading: America’s #1 Import: Deflation

2016 Is An Easy Year To Predict, by Raúl Ilargi Meijer

From Raúl Ilargi Meijer at theautomaticearth.com:

No year is ever easy to predict, if only because if it were, that would take all the fun out of life. But still, predictions for 2016 look quite a bit easier than other years. This is because a whole bunch of irreversible things happened in 2015 that were not recognized for what they are, either intentionally or by ‘accident’. Things that will therefore now be forced to play out in 2016, when denial will no longer be an available option.

A year ago, I wrote 2014: The Year Propaganda Came Of Age, and though that was more about geopolitics, it might as well have dealt with the financial press. And that goes for 2015 at least as much. Mainstream western media are no more likely to tell you what’s real than Chinese state media are.

2015 should have been the year of China, and it was in a way, but the extent to which was clouded by Beijing’s insistence on made-up numbers (GDP growth of 7% against the backdrop of plummeting imports and exports, 45 months of falling producer prices and bad loans reaching 20%), by the western media’s insistence on copying these numbers, and by everyone’s fear of the economic and financial consequences of the ‘Great Fall of China‘.

2015 was also the year when deflation, closely linked -but by no means limited- to China, got a firm hold on the global economy. Denial and fear have restricted our understanding of this development just as much.

And while it should be obvious that 2015 was the year of refugees as well, that topic too has been twisted and turned until full public comprehension has become impossible. Both in the US and in Europe politicians pose for their voters loudly proclaiming that borders must be closed and refugees and migrants sent back to the places they’re fleeing due to our very own military interventions.

And that said politicians have the power to make that happen, the power to close borders to hundreds of thousands of fellow human beings arriving on their countries’ doorsteps. As if thousands of years of human mass migrations never occurred, and have no lessons to teach the present or the future.

The price of oil was a big story, and China plays the lead role in that story, even if again poorly understood. All the reports and opinions about OPEC plans and ‘tactics’ to squeeze US frackers are hollow, since neither OPEC as a whole nor its separate members have the luxury anymore to engage in tactical games; they’re all too squeezed by the demise of Chinese demand growth, if not demand, period.

Ever since 2008, the entire world economy has been kept afloat by the $25 trillion or so that China printed to build overleveraged overcapacity. And now that is gone, never to return. There is nowhere else left for our economies to turn for growth. Everyone counted on China to take them down the yellow brick road to la-la-land, forever. And then it didn’t happen.

To continue reading: 2016 Is An Easy Year To Predict

10 Investor Warning Signs For 2016, by Michael Pento

From Michael Pento at davidstockmanscontracorner.com:

Wall Street’s proclivity to create serial equity bubbles off the back of cheap credit has once again set up the middle class for disaster. The warning signs of this next correction have now clearly manifested, but are being skillfully obfuscated and trivialized by financial institutions. Nevertheless, here are ten salient warning signs that astute investors should heed as we roll into 2016.

1. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates and a barometer for worldwide commodity demand, recently fell to its lowest level since 1985. This index clearly portrays the dramatic decrease in global trade and forebodes a worldwide recession.

2. Further validating this significant slowdown in global growth is the CRB index, which measures nineteen commodities. After a modest recovery in 2011, it has now dropped below the 2009 level—which was the nadir of the Great Recession.

3. Nominal GDP growth for the third quarter of 2015 was just 2.7%. The problem is Ms. Yellen wants to begin raising rates at a time when nominal GDP is signaling deflation and recession. The last time the Fed began a rate hike cycle was in the second quarter of 2004. Back then nominal GDP was a robust 6.6%. Furthermore, the last several times the Fed began to raise interest rates nominal GDP ranged between 5%-7%.

To continue reading: 10 Investor Warning Signs for 2016




What Deflation Quacks Like, by Raúl Ilargi Meijer

Deflation, like winter, is no longer coming; it’s here. From  Raúl Ilargi Meijer at theautomaticearth.com:

As yet another day of headlines shows, see the links and details in today’s Debt Rattle at the Automatic Earth, deflation is visible everywhere, from a 98% drop in EM debt issuance to junk bonds reporting the first loss since 2008 to corporate bonds downgrades to plummeting cattle prices in Kansas to China’s falling demand for iron ore and a whole list of other commodities.

The list is endless. It is absolutely everywhere. And it’s there every single day. But how would we know? After all, we’re being told incessantly that deflation equals falling consumer prices. And since these don’t fall -yet-, other than at the pump (something people seem to think is some freak accident), every Tom and Dick and Harry concludes there is no deflation.

But if you wait for consumer prices to fall to recognize deflationary forces, you’ll be way behind the curve. Always. Consumer prices won’t drop until we’re -very- well into deflation, and they will do so only at the moment when nary a soul can afford them anymore even at their new low levels.

The money supply, however it’s measured, may be soaring (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard makes the point every other day), but that makes no difference when spending falls as much as it does. And it does. The whole shebang is maxed out. And the whole caboodle is maxed out too. All of it except for central banks and other money printers.

Everyone has so much debt that spending can only come from borrowing more. Until it can’t. We read comments that tell us the global markets are reaching the end of the ‘credit cycle’, but can the insanity that has ‘saved’ the economy over the past 7 years truly be seen as a ‘cycle’, or is it perhaps instead just pure insanity? There’s never been so much debt on the planet, so unless we’re starting a whole new kind of cycle, not much about it looks cyclical.

Also, though we hear this all the time, the collapse in spending does not happen because people are ‘saving’, but we wouldn’t know that from the ‘official’ numbers, because when people pay down their debts, that is counted as ‘saving’.

To continue reading: What Deflation Quacks Like

Telling Details, by Robert Gore

Writers are advised to avoid descriptions that read like catalogs, and instead use a few telling details that convey to the reader the essence of what’s being described. In the same vein, a few details may be all that’s necessary to understand the global economy and where it’s headed.

Detail one: the government of Portugal recently issued 12-month debt at a negative interest rate (“The Mad Euro Project Just Got A Lot Madder,” by Don Quijones). Detail two: the Chinese producer price index (PPI) has fallen for 44 straight months (“The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago,” by Raúl Ilargi Meijer). Detail three: the so-called FANG stocks—Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google—have accounted for the S&P 500’s entire 1 percent gain this year (as of November 20). Their market capitalizations have gone up 60 percent versus a combined increase in earnings of 13 percent. Without those four, the S&P is down 2.5 percent (“When Wall Street Gets DeFANGed———Look Out Below!” by David Stockman).

It is a truism of human psychology that a dollar today is worth more to us than a dollar in the future. To be induced to give up a dollar today, we need to be paid more than a dollar in the future. That premium is interest, and the psychological truism implies that it will always be at a positive rate. How then is Portugal able to borrow money and repay less than the amount it’s borrowing twelve months hence? It’s like seeing water run uphill.

There is an economic cult that infests central banks and believes, against all evidence, that debt powers economies and that by manipulating interest rates, economies can be manipulated. Press interest rates low enough and the economy will flourish. Businesses will borrow and invest in new productive capacity and jobs. Consumers will head to the malls. Speculators will bid up the price of financial assets and higher balances on brokerage statements will prompt more spending and investment.

It doesn’t work. While a lower interest rate may prompt an immediate increase in business borrowing, over time markets adjust to the new rate and the prevailing rate of return equilibrates to that rate. The last six years have demonstrated that taking central bank-administered rates to zero does not promote economic expansion, especially for developed world economies already overly indebted and plagued by governments addicted to economic intervention and welfare-state spending. But central bankers are like the medieval “doctors” who bled their patients to death. Having taken rates to zero they’re prescribing more leaches: negative rates. Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, pledges to buy debt at negative yields. Speculators front run his pledge, buying an idiot’s ticket to ruin knowing a bigger idiot will pay a higher price. And Portugal, whose dire financials would merit double-digit interest rates in rational credit markets, gets paid to borrow.

Detail two: China joined a global debt binge after the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Debt funded booms in domestic consumption and investment in infrastructure, factories, houses, apartments, malls, and entire cities. Debt in the US and Europe funded their consumption of Chinese exports. China recycled the proceeds from its trade surpluses back into the debt of its customers—vendor financing.

China’s PPI deflation started in March 2012: producer demand shifted downward relative to supply, taking prices with it. Debt was producing diminishing returns and debt service was exacting an increasing toll on its economy. China’s “solution” has been more leaches: more debt. Chinese government statisticians dutifully count each new factory, apartment complex, and addition to infrastructure in their GDP tally. However, new facilities operate at a loss, apartments join hundreds of thousands across the country standing vacant, few cars are seen on many of the brand new roads and bridges, and some of the new cities are virtually uninhabited. China’s string of negative PPI readings offers a preview for the global economy: deflation and debt contraction.

Speculation and the rise of financial asset prices are not indicators of economic vitality. Rather, speculation is the last economic activity in which debt has produced a positive return. Negative interest rates imply that the prevailing rate of return could go negative: borrowing money to fund investments that lose money! That prospect may seem fanciful, but speculation is close to it, bearing a hugely disproportionate probability of loss.

Corporate managers are spending more on share repurchases—speculating on their corporation’s stock price—than their corporations’ free cash flow. There is a self-serving element to this. A significant share of executive compensation is stock options, but another consideration has been overlooked. Managers face a dearth of productive investments. Years of cheap debt have already funded most plausible capital projects. Commodities, intermediate, and finished goods markets are glutted and prices are falling. Debt, welfare state spending, and regulation have slowed many economies to a crawl, and put some of them in reverse. In what are managers supposed to invest? Might as well take a flier on the stock market; the potential gain of a gamble is better than a certain loss.

Detail three: capital is being destroyed or is fleeing glutted industries with burdensome debt and negative rates of return. Those characterizations apply to an ever-expanding swath of the overall economy, and are moving up the production chain from raw materials to transportation services, intermediate and finished goods, and retail. It is only a matter of time before they spread to services. The progression has been reflected in the stock market, where gains are confined to an ever shrinking number of stocks.

Investors have crowded into Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google because they are among the few companies that continue to show increased profits; exemplars in a sector—high technology—that many investors hope is immune from the forces of economics. However, on a trailing twelve months basis, their price to earnings ratio is an unweighted average of 356.88, dragged down by Google’s “meager” 31.89 (all figures from Yahoo Finance). The FANG companies are wonders to behold, but their S&P-supporting valuations say nothing about the economy. They are instead an indication that, in David Stockman’s words, “[T]he gamblers are piling on the last train out of the station.” No company, not even the FANGs, are immune from the forces of economics; they are much better shorts than longs here.

Negative interest rates, glutted product markets, falling prices, shrinking global trade, plunging shipping rates, fading retail activity, and the desperate, manic piling into the FANG stocks say volumes about the economy. Winter is coming, and like the Game of Thrones version, it will be years before spring follows.



TGP_photo 2 FB




The Long, Cold Economic Winter Ahead, M.N. Gordon

From M.N. Gordon at davidstockmanscontracorner.com:

Cold winds of deflation gust across the autumn economic landscape. Global trade languishes and commodities rust away like abandoned scrap metal with a visible dusting of frost. The economic optimism that embellished markets heading into 2015 have cooled as the year moves through its final stretch.

If you recall, the popular storyline since late last year has been that the U.S. economy is moderately improving while the world’s other major economies – Japan, China, and Europe – are rolling over. The U.S. economy would power through. Moreover, stock prices had achieved a permanently high plateau.

But somewhere between collapsing oil prices, dollar strength, and consumer lethargy the economy’s narrative has drifted off plot. The theme has transitioned from one of renewed growth and recovery to one of recurring sickness and stagnation. Mass malinvestments in U.S. shale oil, Brazilian mines, and Chinese factories and real estate must be reckoned.

Price adjustments, bankruptcies, and debt restructuring must be painfully worked through like a strawberry picker hunkered over a seemingly endless furrow row of over ripening fruits. Sore backs, burnt necks, and tender fingers are what the over-all economy has in front of it. The U.S. economy is not immune to the global disorder after all.

More evidence is revealed each week that the unexpected is happening. Instead of economic strength and robust growth, economic fundamentals are breaking down. Manufacturing is slowing. Consumer spending is soft. For additional edification, let’s turn to Dr. Copper…

To continue reading: The Long, Cold Economic Winter Ahead