Category Archives: Banking

Why the Fed Is Bankrupt and Why That Means More Inflation, by Ryan McMaken

How can an institution that manufacturers money go bankrupt? From Ryan McMaken at mises.org:

In 2011, the Federal Reserve invented new accounting methods for itself so that it could never legally go bankrupt. As explained by Robert Murphy, the Federal Reserve redefined its losses so as to ensure its balance sheet never shows insolvency. As Bank of America’s Priya Misra put it at the time:

As a result, any future losses the Fed may incur will now show up as a negative liability (negative interest due to Treasury) as opposed to a reduction in Fed capital, thereby making a negative capital situation technically impossible.

That was twelve years ago, and it was all academic at the time. But in 2023, the Fed really is insolvent, although its fake post-2011 account doesn’t show this. Nevertheless, the reality is that the Fed’s assets are losing value at the same time that the Fed is paying out more in interest than it is making in interest income.

This became clear last week, when the Fed released a new report showing that its interest payments on bank reserves skyrocketed in 2022. The press release states:

Total interest expense of $102.4 billion increased $96.6 billion from 2021 total interest expense of $5.7 billion; of the increase in interest expense, $55.1 billion pertained to interest expense on Reserve Balances held by depository institutions and $41.5 billion related to interest on securities sold under agreements to repurchase.

As this graphic from the Fed shows, the cost of operations also exceeded earnings in 2022 because remittances have fallen from 2021:

remittances

For the year overall, the Fed still managed to achieve a positive net income, thanks to positive inflows in the first half of the year. But since September, as Reuters notes, the Fed began recording what’s called a deferred asset, which tallies up the Fed’s loss; the deferred asset stood at $18.8 billion at the end of the year.

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The Fed Is a Purely Political Institution, and It’s Definitely Not a Bank. By Ryan McMaken

The Fed is political and is not a bank. It is also the banking cartel’s agent and protector in Washington. From Ryan McMaken at mises.org:

Those who know Wall Street lore sometimes recall that Fed chairman William Miller—Paul Volcker’s immediate predecessor—joked that most Americans believed the Federal Reserve was either an Indian reservation, a wildlife preserve, or a brand of whiskey. The Fed, of course, is none of those things, but there’s also one other thing the Federal Reserve is not: an actual bank. It is simply a government agency that does bank-like things.

It’s easy to see why many people might think it is a bank. “Bank” is right there in the name of the twelve regional banks that make up the system: for example, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The Fed also enjoys many titles that make it sound like a bank. It’s sometimes called the “lender of last resort.” Or it is sometimes called “a banker’s bank.” Moreover, many people often call the Fed “the central bank.” That phrase is useful enough, but not quite true.

Moreover, even critics of the bank often repeat the myth that the Federal Reserve is “a private bank,” as if that were the main problem with the Federal Reserve. And then there are the economists who like to spread fairy tales about how the Fed is “independent” from the political system and makes decisions based primarily on economic theory as interpreted by wise economists.

The de facto reality of the Federal Reserve is that it is a government agency, run by government technocrats, that enjoys the benefits of being subject to very little oversight from Congress. It is no more “private” than the Environmental Protection Agency, and it is no more a “bank” than the US Department of the Treasury.

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The evolution of credit and debt in 2023, by Alasdair Macleod

The productive sector of the U.S. economy is already in a recession. From Alasdair Macleod at goldmoney.com:

The evidence strongly suggests that a combined interest rate, economic and currency crisis for the US and its western alliance will continue in 2023.

This article focuses on credit, its constraints, and why quantitative easing has already crowded out private sector activity. Adjusting M2 money supply for accumulating QE indicates the degree to which this has driven the US tax base into deep recession. And the wider effects on credit in the economy should not be ignored. 

After a brief partial recovery from the covid crisis in US government finances, they are likely to start deteriorating again due to a deepening recession of private sector activity. Funding these deficits depends on foreign inward investment flows, which are faltering. Rising interest rates and an ongoing bear market make funding from this source hard to envisage.

Meanwhile, from his public statements President Putin is fully aware of these difficulties, and a consequence of the western alliance increasing their support and involvement in Ukraine makes it almost certain that Putin will take the opportunity to push the dollar over the edge.

Credit is much more than bank deposits

Economics is about credit, and its balance sheet twin, debt. Debt is either productive, in which case it can extinguish credit in due course, or it is not, and credit must be extended or written off. Money almost never comes into it. Money is distinguished from credit by having no counterparty risk, which credit always has. The role of money is to stabilise the purchasing power of credit. And the only legal form of money is metallic; gold, silver, or copper usually rendered into coin for enhanced fungibility.

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Davos Men, by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

It should be Davos poor-excuse-for-men. From Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman at bonnerprivateresearch.com:

Your moral betters prepare for their annual, world improving confabulation

Bill Bonner, reckoning today from Paris, France…

Paris is gray. But not grim. People are out and about. Face masks have almost disappeared.

But everybody grumbles…and in France, as in America, elite deciders are making everyday life harder. One thing: they’ve banned the use of outdoor heaters, which were ubiquitous in sidewalk cafes. You used to be able to sit outside near the gas heater and enjoy the street life. No more…

Meanwhile, we are working our way through a list of things that can go wrong. The World Economic Forum (WEF) calls it a “polycrisis.” We prefer the half-word “cluster” as it is more descriptive of the disaster to come.

Inflation, for example. The WEF’s Global Risks survey signals higher living costs as one of its near-term flash points. And here’s the latest. CNBC reports:

Inflation just dropped to 6.5%—but the ‘most important’ factor in predicting if it will keep falling is up 0.4%

In Thursday’s CPI report, “services less rent of shelter” showed a 0.4% increase in December. …since wages are “the largest cost in delivering these services,” [Powell] said, that might indicate out-of-control wage growth…

There is “sticky” inflation…and inflation of the Teflon variety. The non-sticky inflation includes things that go up and down readily – such as oil and commodities. The ‘sticky’ inflation comes from things such as wages and shelter, that don’t get marked-to-market on a daily basis.

Yesterday’s numbers tell us that the sticky part may become a tar baby – hard to get rid of. In the ‘services including rents’ category, for example, prices are up more than 7%. Much of that is wages. And nobody takes a wage cut to fight inflation.

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3 Things Most People Don’t Know About Gold, Bitcoin, and Money, by Nick Giambruno

In the coming collapse, Bitcoin may be a better way to transact and preserve wealth than gold. Or it may not, but it’s a good idea to learn as much as possible about both. From Nick Gaimbruno at internationalman.com:

Bitcoin has been likened to the platypus… which sounds like an odd comparison.

The platypus is a strange duck-billed mammal with webbed feet and a furry body like a beaver. It has characteristics of birds, mammals, and reptiles. Females lay eggs but also nurse their young with milk. Males produce a potent venom.

When Europeans discovered the platypus in Australia in 1798, they wrote letters to folks at home to describe this bizarre new animal. People thought the platypus was a joke or a hoax—because it didn’t fit into the classification of animals at that time.

But it was a real animal.

People just didn’t understand it because it was a new thing that didn’t fit into the established paradigms.

Bitcoin is much the same. It doesn’t fit into the framework of traditional financial analysis metrics.

There is no P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio because Bitcoin has no earnings.

There is no P/B (price-to-book) ratio because Bitcoin has no book value.

Bitcoin has no CEO, no marketing department, and no employees.

Bitcoin is an entirely new asset people are adopting as money because of its superior monetary properties, namely its resistance to inflation.

The monetization of a new global money is genuinely unlike anything anyone alive has ever seen before. There is nothing else comparable.

Like the platypus, Bitcoin is an entirely new animal. That’s why Bitcoin confuses many people, including prominent investment professionals.

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It’s the Fed, Stupid! By Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Oligopolies don’t have printing presses. From Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman at bonnerprivateresearch.com:

Plus, a year of “I told you so’s” and plenty more to come…

Bill Bonner, reckoning today from Normandy, France…

Last year was such a hoot we are reluctant to say goodbye to it. It was one ‘I-told-you-so’ moment after another.

The Fed raised rates…trying to recover from the embarrassment of failing to see the approaching inflation.  The higher rates caused stocks to go down. The biggest losers were those that had just made the biggest gains – especially the big techs and cryptos.

It all happened pretty much as it should have happened. See, ‘I told you so.’

People try to complicate it. Disguise it. They aim to distract your attention from what is right before your eyes. They claim ‘capitalism failed’ or ‘corporate greed’ suddenly imposed itself or, for those with no ax to grind, simply that there were ‘supply chain interruptions.’ Here’s the hopeless Robert Reich, former US Labor Secretary, in The Guardian. He says corporate monopolies are to blame:

Worried about sky-high airline fares and lousy service? That’s largely because airlines have merged from 12 carriers in 1980 to four today.

Concerned about drug prices? A handful of drug companies control the pharmaceutical industry.

Upset about food costs? Four giants now control over 80% of meat processing, 66% of the pork market, and 54% of the poultry market.

Worried about grocery prices? Albertsons bought Safeway and now Kroger is buying Albertsons. Combined, they would control almost 22% of the US grocery market. Add in Walmart, and the three brands would control 70% of the grocery market in 167 cities across the country.

And so on. The evidence of corporate concentration is everywhere.

Put the responsibility where it belongs – on big corporations with power to raise their prices.

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Ominous Military & Financial ‘Nuclear Threats’ Could Erupt in 2023, by Egon von Greyerz

The financial threat looks like a sure thing, and the military threat is not far behind. From Egon von Greyerz at goldswitzerland.com:

The world is today confronted with two nuclear threats of a proportion never previously seen in history. These threats are facing us at a time when the world economy is about to turn and decline precipitously not just for years but probably decades.

The obvious nuclear threat is the war between the US and Russia which currently is playing out in Ukraine.

The other nuclear threat is the financial weapons of mass destruction in the form of debt and derivatives amounting to probably US$ 2.5 quadrillion.

If we are lucky, the geopolitical event can be avoided but I doubt that the explosion/implosion of the Western financial timebomb can be stopped.

More about these risks later in the article.

There is also a summary of my market views for 2023 and onwards at the end of the article.

CURIOSITY AND RISK

With a business life of over 52 years in banking, commerce and investments, I am fortunate to still learn every day and learning is really the joy of life. But the more you learn, the more you realise how little you really know.

Being a constant and curious learner means that life is never dull.

As Einstein said:

The important thing is not to stop questioning.

Curiosity has its own reason for existing.”

There has been another important constancy in my life which is understanding and protecting RISK.

I learnt early on in my commercial life that it is critical to identify risk and endeavour to protect the downside. If you can achieve that, the upside normally takes care of itself.

Sometimes the risk is so clear that you want to stand on the barricades and shout. But sadly most investors are driven by greed and seldom see when markets become high risk.

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What if the “Black Swan” of 2023 Is the Fed Succeeds? by Charles Hugh Smith

Higher interest rates may end up hurting and helping all the right people. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

If the Fed succeeding is a “Black Swan,” bring it on.

What if the “Black Swan” of 2023 is the Federal Reserve succeeds? Two stipulations here:

1. “Black Swan” is in quotes because the common usage has widened to include events that don’t match Nassim Taleb’s original criteria / definition of black swan; the term now includes events considered unlikely or that are off the radar screens of both the media and the alt-media.

2. The definition of “Fed success” is not as simple as the media and the alt-media present it.

In the conventional telling, the Fed made a policy mistake in keeping interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) in place for too long, and now it’s made a policy mistake in reversing those policies. Huh? So ZIRP/QE was a policy mistake, OK, we get that. But reversing those policy mistakes is also a policy mistake? Then what isn’t a policy mistake? Doing nothing? But wait, isn’t “doing nothing” maintaining ZIRP/QE or ZIRP/QE Lite?

This narrative makes no sense.

The other conventional narrative has the Fed’s policy mistake as tightening financial conditions, a.k.a. reversing ZIRP/QE, too much too quickly, as this will cause a recession. OK, we get the avoidance of recession is considered “a good thing,” but aren’t recessions an essential cleansing of excessive debt and speculation, i.e. an essential part of the business cycle without with bad debt, zombies and malinvestments build up to levels that threaten the stability of the entire system?

Yes, recessions are an essential part of the business cycle. So avoiding recessions is systemically disastrous. So according to this narrative, the Fed should “do whatever it takes” to avoid recession, even though a long-overdue recession is desperately needed to cleanse the deadwood, bad debt, zombie enterprises and speculative excesses from the system.

So this narrative is also nonsense.

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CBDCs: digital wolves in sheep’s clothing? By John Butler

CBDCs are definitely digital wolves and they’re set to devour us. From John Butler at fortuneandfreedom.com:

People like to remark that governments foster innovation, especially during wartime. They also like to ignore the slaughter of millions which is usually part of this process. That is not to mention the innovators we missed out on as a result.

The latest government “innovation,” which follows in a long tradition of stealing ideas from the private sector designed to improve our lives and using them for other means instead, is central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

Designed not to exist in any physical form whatsoever, CBDCs would give their central bank issuers entirely new powers. Indeed, much of the manoeuvring that was required in 2008-9 to rescue the financial system with taxpayer-funded bailouts would have been so much easier had CBDCs been in existence. But if easier, is that necessarily a good thing for the economy as a whole?

Nigel Farage doesn’t seem to think so. And he has come up with a plan to counter the government’s efforts.

To answer the question, it is important to differentiate between CBDCs and the concept of private, distributed digital currencies, including those such as bitcoin, that are built using distributed-ledger technology (DLT). In some ways they are opposites.

Rather than offer an alternative currency, CBDCs are mostly aimed at making monetary policy easier to implement and, potentially, more powerful.

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2023: The ABC’s of CBDC, the Great Reset(s) & MORE Centralized Control, by Matthew Piepenburg

Countries that are suffering from an excess of centralized control usually double down with more control. From Matthew Piepenburg at goldswitzerland.com:

If you want to understand modern CBDC, it may be worth considering the context of history, the philosophy of man, the math of debt and the geology of gold.

Broke Countries Do Bad Things

When broken, debt-soaked “developed economies” suffering from years of fantasy money printing to “solve” fatally rising debt levels collide with history-blind and economically-ignorant policy makers, the end result is always the same: Liberty sinks, currencies die and control rises.

This is not sensationalism, but the toxic evolution of economic, political and psychological patterns seen throughout time.

Sadly, our “times” (as well as the global abundance/convergence of weak leadership) are no exception.

Or stated more simply, inept financial and political leadership leads to even more dangerous financial opportunists and tyrannical policies masquerading as efficient solutions.

Toward this end, the evidence is literally everywhere—left, right and center.

The Inevitable Klaus Schwab-Type

Nowhere is such will-to-power opportunism and fantasy (i.e., centralized) solutions more exemplified than in the so-called “Great Reset” authored by the head of the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab.

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