Tag Archives: Statistics

In sworn statement, prominent mathematician flags up to 100,000 Pennsylvania ballots, by Daniel Payne and John Solomon

The hits just keep on coming. From Daniel Payne and John Solomon at justthenews.com:

Federal Elections Commission Chairman Trey Trainor says new analysis by professor Steven Miller “adds to the conclusions that some level of voter fraud took place in this year’s election.”

In a sworn declaration, a respected mathematician says his analysis of election data and phone interviews with Pennsylvania voters raises questions about as many as 100,000 absentee ballots requested in the key battleground state where President Trump and Joe Biden are separated by just about 82,000 votes.

Williams College Professor Steven Miller, a Yale and Princeton trained math expert, said he analyzed Pennsylvania ballot data collected by former Trump campaign data chief Matt Braynard as well as 2,684 voter interviews conducted by a phone bank and found two concerning patterns. One involved possible votes that were not counted, the other ballots that appeared to be requested by someone other than a registered voter.

“I estimate that the number of ballots that were either requested by someone other than the registered Republican or requested and returned but not counted range from 89,397 to 98,801,” Miller said in the sworn statement provided to Just the News.

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The Cat Leaves The Bag, by Eric Peters

The US numbers, particularly deaths supposedly due to Covid-19, certainly aren’t supporting the hysterical case being made for the draconian evisceration of our remaining liberties and the shutdown of the economy. From Eric Peters at ericpetersautos.com:

Hysterical headlines today – Sunday, March 21 – about the number of Americans supposedly identified as having been infected with Coronavirus. The modifier supposedly used because the tests being used to identify the virus are of dubious reliability. But, regardless – 25,493 as of today. A big number, banner-headlined across the Internet.

But there’s another number you have to look for, which isn’t being banner-headlined around the Internet.

307.

That’s how many Americans have supposedly died from WuFlu so far. The modifier added – and italicized – to emphasize the fact that it is not known whether it was the WuFlu that killed all these people or old age/underlying infirmity pushed over the edge by what would otherwise have just been a nasty cold.

But regardless, 307.

Coronavirus Hysteria: Part I, by Jack Kerwick

Dope out the coronavirus statistics and the agenda becomes clear. They’re hoping you won’t notice. From Jack Kerwick at lewrockwell.com:

These are interesting times in which we live.

The mass hysteria over COVID-19, “The Coronavirus,” supplies the remotely thoughtful with much food for thought.

In a following series of articles, I will unpack the many implications of the mass panic.

Before doing so, though, we must first establish one fundamental fact:

This is indeed a mass panic.

The Coronavirus” is, in reality, but the latest discovered variant of a family of corona viruses that are located in all acute respiratory diseases.  As Wolfgang Wodarg—a German medical doctor who once ran his own health department with a system for monitoring flu diseases among people within an area of some 150,000 inhabitants—informs us, coronaviruses constitute anywhere up to 15% of respiratory diseases.  “Hence,” Dr. Wodarg says, “it’s just normal that a big part of viruses are coronaviruses.”

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Covid-19 Global Lockdown, by CJ Hopkins

A little satire to ameliorate the mounting frustration and rage, from CJ Hopkins at off-guardian.org:

Let’s try a little thought experiment. Just for fun. To pass the time while we’re indefinitely locked down inside our homes, compulsively checking the Covid-19 “active cases” and “total death” count, washing our hands every twenty minutes, and attempting not to touch our faces.

Before we do, though, I want to make it clear that I believe this Covid-19 thing is real, and is probably the deadliest threat to humanity in the history of deadly threats to humanity.

According to the data I’ve been seeing, it’s only a matter of days, or hours, until nearly everyone on earth is infected and is either dying in agony and alone or suffering mild, common cold-like symptoms, or absolutely no symptoms whatsoever.

I feel that I need to state this clearly, before we do our thought experiment, because I don’t want anyone mistakenly thinking that I’m one of those probably Russian-backed Nazis who are going around saying, “it’s just the flu,” or who are spreading dangerous conspiracy theories about bio-weapons and martial law, or who are otherwise doubting or questioning the wisdom of locking down the entire world (and likely triggering a new Great Depression) on account of the discovery of some glorified bug.

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The Economic Crash So Far: A Look At The Real Numbers, by Brandon Smith

The economy is doing worse than most people, and the stock market, think. From Brandon Smith at alt-market.com:

This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group

There are many problems when attempting to track a faltering economy. For one, the people in government generally do not want the public to know when the system is in decline because this looks bad for them. They prefer to rig statistical indicators as much as possible and hope that no one notices. When the crash occurs, they then claim that “no one saw it coming” and the disaster “came out of nowhere”, so how could they be to blame?

I have even heard it argued that political leaders, including the president, have a “duty” to lie about the state of the economy because once they admit to the decline they will cause a panic and perpetuate the crisis. This is stupidity. If an economic system is in disrepair and is built on a faulty foundation, then the problems should be identified and fixed immediately. The weak businesses should be culled, not bailed out. The wasteful government spending should be cut, not increased. The downturn should not be hidden and prolonged for years or decades. In most cases, this only makes the inevitable crash far worse and more damaging.

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Misleading with Numbers: It’s Worse When the Government Does It, by Gary Galles

Numbers can be almost as good at lying as words. From Gary Galles at mises.org:

Major international comparisons have long concluded that Americans’ ability to effectively utilize mathematics is inadequate. Such conclusions divide students, parents, teachers and administrators into camps that share little more than blaming others for the problems. However, it is unclear whether all the finger-pointing indicates a real desire to overcome our innumeracy. In fact, we systematically misuse numbers to distort reality because we want to fool ourselves, making our ineptitude no surprise.

One of today’s most obvious misleading number games is grade inflation. Teachers have accommodated student desires for higher grades to the point that the median GPA of graduating college seniors has risen around a full grade point since it was about 2.2 in 1965. At some schools, almost everyone now gets As and Bs, and who is valedictorian has become a question of how many “perfect” students will share that title. Students have also pushed to allow A+ grades that count more.

High schools have gone even further. Many make advanced placement or community college courses worth an extra grade point. This has created a competition among students to take as many such GPA-padding courses as possible, especially ones they discover are actually easier than the corresponding high school courses. These and other policies (e.g., statewide comparisons crafted to show that, as in Lake Woebegone, all children are above average) have, however, thrown away much of the useful information such evaluations once contained.

Price inflation is another form of ego-building by manipulating comparison numbers. For most of us, if we want to brag that, say, we make more than our parents did, enough years of inflation can make it so. On the other hand, older Americans use it to “prove” how much better things used to be (e.g., “I remember when bread was a nickel” or “I only paid $22,000 for my house”).

Statistics and percentages are subject to the same abuse. Statistics are routinely manipulated, as with attempts to make insignificant changes appear significant. Instead of saying some drug increases the probability of some form of cancer from 0.00001 to 0.00003, reports scream that it triples your risk (from almost zero to almost zero). And “giving it 100%” was once going all out, but that has now frequently been eclipsed by claims of giving it 110%, 150%, 200%, or even 1000%. I’m 1000000% sure such inflated hyperbole is misleading.

To continue reading: Misleading with Numbers: It’s Worse When the Government Does It

What the Hell is Going On? (Part Two), by Jim Quinn

Part Two of Jim Quinn’s shredding of the mainstream media’s fairy tales about the economy. From Quinn at theburningplatform.com:

In Part One of this article I exposed the establishment narrative of a strong economy as rubbish by providing hard data regarding imploding gasoline usage, failing bricks and mortar retailers and plunging restaurant sales.

“Inflation may indeed bring benefits for a short time to favored groups, but only at the expense of others. And in the long run it brings ruinous consequences to the whole community. Even a relatively mild inflation distorts the structure of production. It leads to the overexpansion of some industries at the expense of others. This involves a misapplication and waste of capital. When the inflation collapses, or is brought to a halt, the misdirected capital investment—whether in the form of machines, factories or office buildings—cannot yield an adequate return and loses the greater part of its value.Nor is it possible to bring inflation to a smooth and gentle stop, and so avert a subsequent depression.” – Henry Hazlitt – Economics in One Lesson

Inflation is the opium of the masses. The establishment’s interest in dumbing down the masses through government controlled public school indoctrination couldn’t be clearer than examining the chart below. The average non-thinking, math challenged, iGadget distracted, media controlled pawn thinks their household income has risen by $6,000 since 2008 because they have no understanding of Fed created inflation.

Even using the ridiculously downward manipulated CPI concoction shows the median household has lost ground. While median income has remained stagnant since 2000, the CPI is up 44%. Using honest inflation numbers would likely double that figure. Stagnant incomes with living costs 40% to 80% higher doesn’t exactly match the rhetoric of a strong economy being propagandized by the Deep State and their fake news media outlets.

To continue reading: What the Hell is Going On? (Part Two)

Barack Obama Is Now The Only President In History To Never Have A Year Of 3% GDP Growth, by Tyler Durden

Average growth during Obama’s two terms was 1.48 percent. If inflation was understated by 1.48 percent, there was no real growth during that time. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Following today’s extremely disappointing US GDP growth data, we have the final nail in the coffin of President Obama’s economic reign. Not only is the average annual growth rate of just 1.48% during Obama’s business cycle the weakest of any expansion since at least 1949, he has just become the only President to have not had even one year of 3% GDP growth.

An average annual GDP growth of 1.48% during Obama’s two terms…

As a reminder to a few blinkered media types, this means President Obama’s “recovery” has officially been the worst recovery in US history (despite adding almost $10 trillion to the national debt)…

And worse still, Barack Obama is the only president in US history to never have a year of economic growth over 3.0%…

As we noted previously, every other president in American history, even the really bad ones, had at least one year when U.S. GDP grew by at least 3 percent. But this has not happened under Obama even though he has had two terms in the White House.

As a reminder, this dismal economic track record came at the same as President Obama almost doubled the National Debt…

When ‘fake news’ and ‘peddling fiction’ meet ‘alternative facts’.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-27/barack-obama-now-only-president-history-never-have-year-3-gdp-growth

Back Below “Stall Speed”: 2016 Economy Matches Worst Year since Great Recession, by Wolf Richter

The economy is loaded with too much debt to achieve much in the way of growth. Is it even really growth when the overall debt load is growing faster than the economy? From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

Gutted Hopes for a Strong Finish.

The consensus forecast by economists predicted that the US economy would grow at an rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, as measured by inflation-adjusted GDP. The forecasts ranged from 1.5% to 2.8%. The New York Fed’s “Nowcast” pegged it at 2.1%, and the Atlanta Fed’s “GDPNow” at 2.9%. And today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that growth in the fourth quarter was a measly 1.9%.

That was down from 3.5% in the third quarter, a spurt that had once again given rise to the now gutted hopes that the US economy would finally emerge from its stall speed. But instead it has slowed down.

For the year 2016, the growth rate dropped to 1.6%. It was worse even than 2013, when GDP growth tottered along at 1.7%. And it matched the growth rate in 2011. Both 2016 and 2011 were the worst since 2009 when the US was in the middle of the Great Recession:

In fact, over the past 50 years, anytime the economy grew less than 2% in a year, it was either already in a recession for part of the year, or there’d be a recession the following year. Hence “stall speed” – a speed that is too slow to keep the economy from stalling altogether.

To continue reading: Back Below “Stall Speed”: 2016 Economy Matches Worst Year since Great Recession

State Tax Revenues Plunge In Q2, by Tyler Durden

Tax revenues generally don’t plunge year-over-year when the economy is doing well. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

The latest confirmation that the US economy continues to deteriorate comes not from the Federal Government but from state-level data, where year-over-year growth in state tax revenues slowed in the first quarter to its lowest rate since the second quarter of 2014, according to the latest data published yesterday by the Rockefeller Institute of Government. Worse, preliminary data for the second quarter show an outright decline in state tax collections relative to the second quarter of last year.

As SMRA notes, state tax collections were up 1.6%, year-over-year, in the first quarter, the smallest increase since the second quarter of 2014. After adjustment for inflation, revenues were up 0.4%. Personal income tax collections, which account for roughly 36% of total state revenue, increased 1.8% in the first quarter, down from 5.1% in the fourth quarter. Sales tax collections – the second largest source of state revenue – increased 2.4% in the first quarter, up from 2.0% in the first quarter.

Corporate tax receipts, which account for less than 5% of state revenues, were down sharply for the second consecutive quarter, while motor fuel taxes, which also account for just under 5% of revenues, were up 2.0%, down from 3.5% increase in the fourth quarter.

According to preliminary estimates from Rockefeller, tax collections will be down 2.1% in the second quarter relative to last year, reflecting a decline of 3.3% in personal income taxes and a 9.2% plunge in corporate tax collections.

Sales tax revenue is estimated to have increased.

Rockefeller attributes the recent softness in personal income tax collections to a variety of factors, including weakness in the stock market, in both 2015 and the earlier part of this year, which has depressed tax collections related to investment income. Tax collections have been particularly weak in states with economies that are heavily reliant on oil or other natural resources. In the second quarter, growth in individual income taxes from withholding has slowed considerably.

The suddenly plunge in state income tax should not come as a surprise: the trend in individual income taxes at the state level in recent quarters tracks the sharp decline we have reported previously at the federal level.

For most states, the second quarter marks the end of the fiscal year and the current fiscal year began on July 1. According to Rockefeller, most states forecast weak income and sales tax growth for fiscal 2017. Also, in many states 2017 budget projections were prepared before the second quarter and don’t yet reflect the downside surprise in April tax receipts. In the words of the analysts at the Rockefeller Institute the outlook for state budgets in the 2016-2017 fiscal year “remains gloomy.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-24/state-tax-revenues-plunge-q2