Tag Archives: Growth

What Did We Do About Inflation Before Economists? By John Tamny

Inflation is a currency problem, not a growth problem. Very high rates of growth have occurred with low or no inflation or even deflation. Production increases supply, which lowers prices. From John Tamny at realclearmarkets.com:

What Did We Do About Inflation Before Economists?

(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

In their new book America In Perspective, David Sokol and Adam Brandon report that in 1700, what eventually became the United States had a population of 250,000. By 1770 it was 2.1 million. One hundred years later there were 40 million Americans. By 1914, the number had ballooned to 99 million.

What explains the surge of humans from all over the world? It’s a waste of words to answer the question, but for those still a little bit sleepy, the answer to the question is economic growth. Word travels fast on the matter of prosperity. Abnormally fast growth logically proved a magnet for the world’s strivers in search of something better.

Was all the growth a driver of inflation? It’s a waste of words to answer this question too, but the words will be wasted owing to a growing desire among members of the Left and Right to re-define inflation as a consequence of too much “demand” born of, yes, growth. What a laugh.

Indeed, the surest sign the U.S. didn’t have an inflation problem was the growth itself. Figure that the latter is an obvious consequence of investment (not the “demand” bruited by conservatives and liberals who’ve replaced common sense with textbooks), and investment is all about the production of more and more for less and less. Yes, investment is generally about productivity enhancements meant to produce abundantly and cheaply what used to be expensive and scarce. If you’re wondering if an economy is growing, just look at prices. If once pricey items are becoming more and more accessible, you know there’s growth.

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The Real Policy Error Is Expanding Debt and Calling It “Growth”, by Charles Hugh Smith

The government borrows money and calls it growth. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

Waste is not growth, and neither are the unlimited expansion of debt and speculative bubbles.

The financial punditry is whipping itself into a frenzy about a Federal Reserve “policy error,” which is code for “if the music finally stops, we’re doomed!” In other words, any policy which reduces the flow of juice sluicing through the sewage pipes of the financial system (credit, leverage and liquidity–the essential mechanisms of financialization and globalization) endangers the entire rickety, rotten structure of phantom wealth that’s enriched the few at the expense of the many.

The entire notion that central bank policy makes or breaks the economy is the original Policy Error #1. That is to say, whatever policy a central bank pursues is a policy error because every policy is an attempt to manipulate the self-organizing cycle of credit / economic expansion and contraction.

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How the Fed Killed Growth and Mugged the Hamburger Instead, by David Stockman

The Fed has robbed savers, driven U.S. manufacturing to places like China and Mexico, facilitated the government’s debt binge, and debased the dollar’s purchasing power. Other than that, it’s done a great job. From David Stockman at lewrockwell.com:

Recently, it was reported that US industrial production rose in April for a fourth consecutive month, and owing to a jump in auto assemblies was up 1.1% from March and 6.4% versus prior year. So the usual suspects were out beating the Wall Street tom-toms about economic strength and no recession on the horizon.

But as demonstrated in the chart below, what we are mainly getting once more is born-again production, not net growth. That is, remove the April 2020 Lockdown swoon and scroll back to the interim high in December 2014 and what do you get?

Well, what you get is a piddling 0.26% per annum growth rate over the past 7.5 years. And for want of doubt, dial back to the pre-crisis peak in November 2007 and you get a per annum growth rate of just 0.21% over the past 14.5 years.

US Industrial Production Index, November 2007-April 2022

So, no, the US industrial economy is not strong—it’s been flatlining for the better part of the current century. And that’s something new under the sun, not in a good way.

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Life’s a Beach Until the Tsunami Hits: Four Waves Nobody Cares About–Yet, by Charles Hugh Smith

The rug is being pulled from under the financial markets. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

Four monster waves are about to crash onto the Fed’s beach party and sweep away the unwary revelers.

Hey, is the water in the bay receding? Never mind, free drinks are on the Federal Reserve, so party on, life’s a beach, asset bubbles will never pop, we’re safe. Of course you are. The Fed is all-powerful and would never let a rogue wave turn all its precious phantom wealth into broken detritus.

The water is fast receding and a wave is visible if you care to look, but nobody cares to look. Why bother? The Fed is invincible, that’s all you need to know to mint another fortune.

Just to keep life interesting, let’s look anyway. Gordon Long and I discuss four monster waves that are about to crash onto the Fed’s beach party and sweep away the unwary revelers:

1. Declining liquidity: while everyone is focused on the Fed’s ceaselessly repeated reassurance that the liquidity spigot will never be closed, never ever ever, so party on, asset bubbles will never pop, never ever ever, other central banks have already started reducing global liquidity while domestically, the Treasury General Account (TGA) is soaking up liquidity to fund the federal government’s monumental deficit spending.

2. Declining global growth: long before the pandemic swept ashore in 2020, global growth was faltering: the business cycle had not been abolished, despite Fed assurances that growth and asset bubbles will continue expanding until they reach Alpha Centuri and beyond (Dow one trillion, yowza baby!), growth by any conventional measure (PMI, ISM, industrial production, global trade flows, etc.) had stagnated or rolled over.

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One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks, by Matthew Piepenburg

There are some commonly held notions out there that in no way comport with reality. From Matthew Piepenburg at goldswitzerland.com:

Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing. Putting their “facts” into context is another.

Toward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.

Context 1: The Rising Growth Headline

Recently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.

Fair enough.

But given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…

…such “growth” is not surprising.

In other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.

In a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.

In short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.

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Nothing Can Get Us Out Of This High Debt, High Intervention, Low Default, Low Productivity Loop, by Tyler Durden

This pithy little article hits the nail on the head. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

On Tuesday morning, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid published his 23rd annual default study, a document he first put out in the 1990s which as he says, “makes me feel very old” and adds that the story of this report over the past decade or so has been the increasing divergence between economic growth and defaults. And while defaults have trended down alongside growth, the last 12 months have been a supersized version of this as defaults have peaked at a lower level than during the previous three big default cycles even as growth across many countries was at the lowest levels for several decades or centuries.

According to Reid, the reason for this is simple: it is because debt has become so large over this period, and of such extreme systemic importance, that when each cycle turns there is an ever larger policy move to ensure that many of the most heavily indebted entities don’t default and risk a severe contagion event for the global economy.

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Females & Births, As Rudimentary As We Can Get, by Chris Hamilton

Demographic charts say deleveraging, deflation, and depression are in our future. Read ’em and weep. From Chris Hamilton at econimica.blogspot.com:

First, chart of the century…literally.  For those engrossed in the current and engulfing repo fiasco, QE, and monetization…it is helpful to pull back and clarify what it is that is causing the existing economic and financial system to fail?  It was, is, and will be a Ponzi to its last day and Ponzi’s fail for lack of new suckers.  In this case, those willing and able to undertake new credit (debt) that enlarges the money supply in our fractional reserve system.  The chart below shows the global annual growth of the 20 to 65 year-olds versus 65+ year-olds (both excluding Africa).  20 to 65 year-olds world over utilize credit (debt) while 65+ year-olds extinguish debt (deleverage).  So long as the growth of those levering up outstripped those deleveraging, the system could continue.  But as you’ll note, in 2008, the entire global system shuddered as accelerating growth of potential workers ceased and began decelerating…while the growth of non-workers accelerated.  By about 2024, the annual growth of non-workers (deleveragers) will overtake annual growth of potential workers (debtors).  Those rapidly extinguishing debt in old age will outnumber those undertaking the new debt.  Those in retirement or in death offloading assets will outnumber those buying those assets.  The non-technical name for this is a “shit-show” and this is why central banks, federal governments, and ultra wealthy are aligning ever tighter to save themselves.

Putting Monetization Into Perspective. Or “When It Becomes Serious, You Have To Lie”, by Chris Hamilton

The government borrows more money than the actual growth of the economy. In other words, a dollar’s worth of debt no longer buys a dollar’s worth of growth, even by the government’s screwed-up definition of growth. From Chris Hamilton at economica.blogspot.com:

Since 2007, marketable federal debt has exploded by $12 trillion while Intragovernmental debt has risen a relatively gentle $2 trillion…all while the Federal Reserve directed Federal Funds Rate has been pushed to zero.  And after a short respite from ZIRP, another push to ZIRP is almost surely in process, or even a furtherance, moving into NIRP and the paying of lenders to undertake loans.  But why?

 

We Can’t “Grow Our Way Out” of Debt, by Bill Bonner

We’re no longer getting enough economic bang from each additional buck of debt to reduce the debt pile. From Bill Bonner at bonnerandpartners.com:

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Today, we turn to something no one cares much about, even though it threatens to cause the biggest financial calamity in US history:

Debt.

Glorious Valhalla

Total U.S. debt – public and private – now approaches $74 trillion. The economy that supports this debt has grown steadily, but nowhere near fast enough to keep up with it.

As we remarked yesterday, money is time. So when you owe money, what you really owe is time. And time is not something you can fool around with. It comes and it goes… no matter what you think or what you do.

Historically, Americans have owed 1.5 days of work in the future for every day of work in the present. That is, the ratio of debt to GDP averaged about 1.5 to 1 for the first eight decades of the 20th century.

Then, debt went up, and now stands at 3.5 days of future GDP for every day of present output.

Have we arrived in some great and glorious Valhalla, where the old rules no longer apply, where debt no longer matters… or where time is no longer our master, but our servant?

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The Three Ds of Doom: Debt, Default, Depression, by Charles Hugh Smith

The world is at the precipice of a gigantic debt-contraction and depression. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

“Borrowing our way out of debt” generates the three Ds of Doom: debt leads to default which ushers in Depression.

Let’s start by defining Economic Depression: a Depression is a Recession that isn’t fixed by conventional fiscal and monetary stimulus. In other words, when a recession drags on despite massive fiscal and monetary stimulus being thrown into the economy, then the stimulus-resistant stagnation is called a Depression.

Here’s why we’re heading into a Depression: debt exhaustion. As the charts below illustrate, the U.S. (and global) economy has only “grown” in the 21st century by expanding debt roughly four times faster than GDP or earned income.

Costs for big-ticket essentials such as housing, healthcare and government services are soaring while wages stagnate or decline in purchasing power.What’s purchasing power? Rather than get caught in the endless thicket of defining inflation, ask yourself this: how much of X does one hour of labor buy now compared to 20 years ago? For example, how much healthcare does an hour of labor buy now? How many days of rent does an hour of labor buy now compared to 1999? How many hours of labor are required to pay a parking ticket now compared to 1999?

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