The death spirals generally follow the speculative frenzies, although timing the spirals is problematic. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:
There is an element of inevitability in play, but it isn’t about central bank bailouts, it’s about Death Spirals and the collapse of unsustainable systems.
The vapid discussions about “soft” or “hard” landings for the economy are akin to asking if the Titanic’s encounter with the iceberg was “soft” or “hard:” either way, the ship was doomed, just as the global economy is doomed by The New Normal of Death Spirals and Speculative Frenzies.
Death Spirals are the inevitable result of entrenched interests clinging on to the status quo and thwarting any adaptation or evolution that might threaten or diminish their share of the swag–and that includes any real change because any consequential modification has the potential to upset the gravey train.
The status quo “solution” is to borrow and blow whatever sums are needed to satisfy every entrenched interest. Filling the federal slop-trough for all the hogs now requires borrowing a staggering $1.4 trillion every year, and billions more in municipal, county and state bonds (borrowing money via selling bonds) on the local level.
This borrow and blow strategy avoids any uncomfortable discipline and difficult trade-offs: everybody gets everything they demand.
This strategy looks “unsinkable” until the iceberg looms dead ahead. History suggests that fiscal and political discipline is eventually imposed by the real world in one fashion or another when diminishing returns enter a Death Spiral.
