Category Archives: Financial markets

Doug Casey on Why Uranium has Enormous Upside Potential

Casey is probably right; uranium could be a real home run. From Doug Casey at internationalman.com:

Upside Potential

International Man: What makes uranium attractive as a speculation?

Doug Casey: First of all, consider simple physical reality. Uranium is the cleanest, cheapest, and safest form of mass power generation. I understand that most people will be shocked to hear that, so let me explain.

It’s the cleanest. Unlike coal—which generates millions of tons of pollutants that need to be buried or are dumped into the air—a large nuclear power plant only turns out waste that can be measured in cubic yards.

It’s the cheapest. Of course, this is something that’s very hard to determine since the nuclear industry is burdened with so many counterproductive regulations, controls, and requirements. But uranium itself amounts to less than 5% of the overall cost of running a nuclear plant. In a free market—which we don’t have—nuclear would be, by far, the cheapest type of mass power generation.

And it’s the safest. Notwithstanding what happened at Chernobyl—which failed because of backward and shoddy Soviet technology, or Fukushima, which had literally a one in a million chance of occurring—nobody has ever died of because of nuclear power. But many thousands of people die every year from the pollution caused by burning coal. And when a dam producing hydropower collapses, typically thousands of people die. There are risks and costs to absolutely everything.

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“Risk Of Flight Too Great” – Bankman-Fried Denied Bail, Remanded To Custody, by Tyler Durden

SLL puts the over/under on SBF’s “suicide” in jail, a la Jeffrey Epstein, at January 31, 2023. From Tyler Durden at zerohedge.com:

Update (1700ET): Following his arrest last night, with its expectations of an imminent deportation, Sam Bankman-Fried told a Bahamian judge at an arraignment Tuesday that he wouldn’t waive his right to an extradition hearing.

A defense lawyer said Bankman-Fried planned to fight being sent to the US.

Counsel for SBF has requested bail be set at $250,000.

Manhattan US Attorney Damian Williams called the case “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history” and said the investigation of the alleged scheme is “very much ongoing.”

Which may explain why presiding judge JoyAnn Ferguson-Pratt denied SBF’s bail application, highlighting his “risk of flight” and ordered the crypto executive to be held in custody at the Bahamas Department of Corrections until Feb. 8.

The case has been adjourned to the said date.. 

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The Economic Superbowl: 1920-1921 versus 1930-1931, by George F. Smith

How to stop a depression in it’s tracks, and how to prolong one. From George F. Smith at lewrockwell.com:

It’s been said there’s no such thing as a controlled experiment in the social sciences, including economics.  But we had something close to a laboratory experiment back in 1920-1921 and 1930-1931.

In each of these periods there was a depression.  Unemployment was high – for awhile — it was higher in the 1920s than in the 1930s.  Prices were falling in both periods.

In the 1920-21 depression, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York crashed the monetary base, thereby reducing the money stock, and jacked interest rates to record highs.

In the 1930-1931 depression, the federal reserve gradually increased the monetary base and lowered the interest rate.

In the 1920-21 period the government slashed spending and allowed nominal wages to fall.

In the 1930-31 depression the government increased spending and deficits while pressuring industrial leaders to maintain wage rates.

Tax Policies

Coming out of World War I the highest marginal income tax rate was 77%.  First Harding, then Coolidge (following Treasury secretary Andrew Mellon’s advice) lowered tax rates steadily in the early 1920s.  By 1925 the highest tax rate was around 25%.  Tax receipts began to climb, as people stopped playing defense and looked for ways to grow their income.  As incomes increased, so did tax revenue in spite of the lower rates.

In 1932, Hoover pushed through one of the highest peacetime tax increases in U.S. history.  A person making above a million dollars in 1931 could keep 75 cents on the dollar; a year later the amount plunged to 37 cents.  In the lowest bracket, rates more than doubled.  Along with this were countless taxes on items that had never been taxed.  From 1931 – 1933, revenue from the individual income tax dropped by more than half.  By 1933, the economy was at the depth of the Depression.

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Until Something Breaks, by Bill Bonner

And assuredly, something will break. From Bill Bonner at bonnerprivateresearch.com:

No magic… no genius… and no common sense

 
 

Bill Bonner, reckoning today from Baltimore, Maryland…

 

Last week came more evidence that inflation is not going away. Today, we explain why. MarketWatch:

In data released Friday, U.S. producer prices rose 0.3% in November versus the 0.2% median forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The increase in producer prices over the past 12 months slowed to 7.4% from 8.1% in the prior month, and was down from a 11.7% peak in March.

The report, which came in above expectations, indicated that there’s less moderation in price pressures than analysts had expected for last month.

Foretelling much worse inflation sometime in the future, prices for finished consumer goods actually went up at a 16% rate – the highest in 48 years.

Three Major Busts

But that’s the trouble with a ‘sea of lies;’ it inevitably gets stormy. Ships run aground. 

The Fed gave out the lie that it could manipulate the economy and make us all richer. It claimed to be “smoothing” the economic cycle. No more bubbles. No more busts.

But thanks to the Fed, we’ve seen 3 major bubbles in the last 22 years. And three major busts. We’re still in the 3rd one. 

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PSYOP-MARKET-CRASH Black Swan Edition: Bank for International Settlements Warns of $100 Trillion of Hidden Debt Just Discovered, by 2nd Smartest Guy in the World

The amount of derivatives and debt in the global financial system is so large that $100 trillion can be laying around, undiscovered. The total amount of derivatives is, by knowledgeable estimates, over one quadrillion (a thousand trillions). From 2nd Smartest Guy in the World at 2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com:

The world faces a staggering financial meltdown with potential losses exceeding the total number of US dollars in circulation.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is the central bank of central banks that for all intents and purposes directs all of the other various central banks from The Federal Reserve to the ECB to the BOJ.

The BIS is like the One World Government central bank to the various sovereign national central banks that appear to be independent, but are all privately owned and actively working against the interests of their respective nations.

The BIS is like the hyper-centralized control center, and the various national central banks are its “penetrator” nodes.

All of the national central banks will deploy their respective CBDC products to coincide with the imminent global financial crash to end all crashes. These CBDCs will be the opening salvos in the Great Reset. At some point yet another manufactured crisis will consolidate all of the various CBDC’s into a supra-crypto-SDR (Special Drawing Rights) CBDC that will function as the singular planetary digital currency, at which point the national central banks will all be consolidated into the BIS.

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How Big Are the Fed’s Losses and Where Can We Go See Them?

You wouldn’t think an institution that can legally print money would lose money. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

We find a good rubbernecking spot.

How Big Are the Fed’s Losses and Where Can We Go See Them?

We find a good rubbernecking spot.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

A collapse-chart has been making the rounds in the social media, financial blogs, and the like. It’s being handed around without context, as if self-explanatory, sort of like, look, the world is collapsing. It’s from the St. Louis Fed’s data depository. The title of the chart says, among other things, ominously, “Liabilities: Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury.” Whatever this is, it’s violating the WOLF STREET dictum, “Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight Line.”

But beyond the funny aspects of the chart, there is something happening on the Fed’s balance sheet that is taking on momentum and heft: How much money the Fed is losing, where this lost money shows up, and how it derails a taxpayer gravy-train. The chart reflects that in a bizarre manner — it does a switcheroo — that we’ll get to in a moment.

A liability is money that the Fed owes some other entity – in this case, money that the Fed owes the US Treasury Department. But this particular liability account, “Earnings remittances due to the U.S. Treasury,” is kind of a funny creature.

It has a negative balance of -$13.2 billion as of the Fed’s weekly balance sheet released yesterday. On a balance sheet measured in trillions, this is pretty small. But it’s going to get a lot funkier.

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The Bubble Economy’s Credit-Asset Death Spiral, by Charles Hugh Smith

It was a lot more fun on the way up than it will be on the way down. From Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com:

Who believed that central banks’ financial perpetual motion machine was anything more than trickery designed to generate phantom wealth?

Central banks seem to have perfected the ideal financial perpetual motion machine: as credit expands, money pours into risk assets, which shoot higher under the pressure of expanding demand for assets that yield either hefty returns (junk bonds) or hefty capital gains as the soaring assets suck in more capital chasing returns.

As assets soar in value, they serve as collateral for more credit. Higher valuations = more collateral to borrow against. This open spigot of additional credit sluices capital right back into the assets that are climbing in value, pushing them higher–which then creates even more collateral to support even more credit.

This self-reinforcing feedback of expanding credit feeding expanding valuations feeding expanding collateral which then feeds expanding credit has no apparent end. Modest houses once worth $100,000 are now worth $1,000,000, and nobody’s complaining except those priced out of the infinite spiral of prices and credit.

For those priced out of traditional assets, there’s NFTs, meme stocks and short-duration options. The credit-asset bubble-economy casino has a gaming table for everyone’s budget and desire to “make it big” via speculation, since the traditional ladders to middle-class security have all been splintered.

This financial perpetual motion machine distorts traditional incentives. Why bother renting a house bought for speculative gains? Renters are problematic, better to just let it sit empty and rack up huge capital gains.

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In The End The $ Goes To Zero And The US Defaults, by Egon von Greyerz

That’s where this train is headed. From Egon von Greyerz at goldswitzerland.com:

With US and Global debt exploding prior to both assets and debt imploding, let us look at the disastrous consequences for the US and the world.

Debt explosion leading to the currency becoming worthless has happened in history for as long as there has been some form of money whether we talk about 3rd century Rome, 18th century France or 20th century Weimar Republic and many many more.

So here we are again, another monetary era and another guaranteed collapse as von Mises said:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse
of a boom brought about by credit expansion”

This disastrous borrowed prosperity, with ZERO ability to repay the surging debt,  will lead to one of the three consequences below:

1. THE US$ GOES TO ZERO

2. A US DEFAULT

3. BOTH OF THE ABOVE

The most likely outcome is number 3 in my view. The dollar will go to ZERO and the US will default. The same will happen to most countries.

I outline the consequences for the world at the end of his article.

Many people say that the US can never default. That is of course absolute nonsense.

If a country prints worthless debt that nobody will buy in a currency that no one wants to hold, the country has definitely defaulted whatever spin they put on it.

In the next few years, not just US but all sovereign debt will only have one buyer which is the country that issues the debt. And every time a sovereign state buys its own debt, it has to issue more worthless debt that nobody will touch with a barge pole.

Printing more money to pay for previous sins has never worked and never will.

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Private Equity Is Destroying US Health Care, by F. Douglas Stephenson

Private equity works its wonders and leaves yet another industry in ruins. From F. Douglas Stephenson at consortiumnews.com:

From driving medical facilities out of business to charging predatory interest rates on patient billing schemes, F. Douglas Stephenson outlines how private equity is stealthily destroying Americans’ healthcare. 

Healthcare, Not Wealthcare! rally in Philadelphia, June 22, 2017. (Joe Piete, Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)

Private equity has succeeded in depicting itself as part of the productive economy of health care services even as it is increasingly being recognized as being parasitic.

The essence of this toxic parasitism is not only to drain the host’s nourishment, but also to dull the host’s brain so that it often does not even recognize that the parasite is there. This is the illusion that health care services in the United States suffer under today. 

Parasitic private equity is consuming U.S. health care from the inside out, weakening its structure and strength and enriching investors at the expense of patient care and patients.

Incremental health reforms have failed. It’s time to move past political barriers to achieve consensus on real reform, says J.E. McDonough, professor of practice at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health.

Private equity firms are financial termites devouring the woodwork and foundations of the U.S. health care system, as Laura Katz Olson documents in her new book, Ethically Challenged: Private Equity Storms US Health Care:

“PE firms are gobbling up physician and dental practices; homecare and hospital agencies; mental health, substance abuse, eating disorder, and autism services; urgent care facilities; and emergency medical transportation.”

Private equity has become a growing and diversified part of the American health care economy. Demonstrated results of private equity ownership include higher patient mortality, higher patient costs, fewer jobs, poorer quality and closed facilities.

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The Bank-Run Phenomenon, by Jacob G. Hornberger

A prediction: within the next three years we’ll see substantial bank runs in the U.S. and other countries. From Jacob G. Hornberger at fff.org:

One of the most fascinating phenomena in financial crises is that of bank runs. That’s when panicked depositors rush to their bank to withdraw their money because they’re convinced that the bank is going broke. Everyone tries to withdraw his money before that happens. If the bank does finally go under, the people who failed to withdraw their money are left with a bank that has no money to return to them.

That’s what the FDIC is all about. It insures everyone’s deposits up to a limit of $250,000. The limit used to be $100,000 but U.S. officials, for whatever reason, wanted to make depositors feel even more secure about keeping their money in the bank.

The idea is that people don’t have to worry about losing their money if their bank goes under because the federal government will use taxpayer money to reimburse them. Thus, knowing that their money is “insured” by the government, people have less incentive to rush to the bank to withdraw their money in the event of a potential bank failure.

Of course, one problem with the FDIC insurance is that it enables weaker banks to continue operating, which could make the problem much worse in the future. Without the FDIC, weak banks would go under sooner because people, sensing a problem, would rush to withdraw their money.

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