Category Archives: Investing

Doug Casey’s #1 Speculation for 2023

Doug Casey likes gold and uranium. From Casey at internationalman.com:

Doug Casey #1 Speculation

International Man: Will 2023 be the year of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)? Or will this terrible idea be consigned to the dustbin of history?

Doug Casey: CBDCs are a disastrous idea. But that’s never stopped “the elite” in the past. First, they did zero interest rates and negative interest rates, which I thought was metaphysically impossible. But they did it. Then they went to massive “quantitative easing,” a dishonest euphemism for money printing.

The next thing is going to be Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which will give them unprecedented control over the finances of the average person.

On the one hand, it should be cause for a revolution because it will actually turn people into serfs. But on the other hand, the average American has almost no understanding of economics. He has little grip on what’s going on and believes propaganda.

We’re going to get CBDCs in 2023, and this is one of the scariest things on the horizon.

International Man: Will 2023 be the year uranium really takes off?

Doug Casey: Let’s recall the last uranium boom, which we were fortunate enough to catch back in 2001 to 2007. Uranium ran from $10 a pound up to $140 a pound. And that was in the days when the Russians and the Americans still had large nuclear weapon stockpiles, from which they recaptured lots of U-235 for use in reactors. That’s gone.

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Your Government Hates You, by MN Gordon

The government steals your hard-earned money, has plunged the country into debt, and has spent trillions on programs and wars of no discernible benefit to most of the American people. These are not the acts of an institution that loves you. From MN Gordon at economicprism.com:

“Fate is nothing but the deeds committed in a prior state of existence.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

Capital Consuming Gluttony

Did you know that in fiscal year 2022, federal tax receipts as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) hit a near record high of 19.6 percent?

According to the U.S. Treasury, in FY 2022, total federal tax receipts and additional federal government revenue topped $4.90 trillion.  Yet, over this time, Congress spent $6.27 trillion.  The difference, the 2022 deficit, was $1.37 trillion.

The difference, of course, was made up with debt.  And year after year, decade after decade, these deficits have stacked up into a mega pile of debt.  Presently, the U.S. national debt is over $31.4 trillion.  As a reference point, in December 2000, the national debt was $5.6 trillion.

In other words, over the last 22 years the U.S. national debt has increased 460 percent.  U.S. GDP over this same time, however, has increased just 157 percent, from about $10 trillion to 25.7 trillion.

You’d think with all that cash coming in from near record tax receipts as a percent of GDP Washington could balance the budget.  Maybe it could even run a surplus and pay down some of the national debt.

President Andrew Jackson, for example, paid off the entire national debt in 1835 after just six years in office.  He then took the federal government surplus and divided it among indebted states.

Alas, that’s not how the U.S. government works in the 21st century, where near record tax receipts will never be enough.  Washington’s capital consuming gluttony is well beyond the reach of a human solution.  Nature will have to take its course.

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Doug Casey on Why Uranium has Enormous Upside Potential

Casey is probably right; uranium could be a real home run. From Doug Casey at internationalman.com:

Upside Potential

International Man: What makes uranium attractive as a speculation?

Doug Casey: First of all, consider simple physical reality. Uranium is the cleanest, cheapest, and safest form of mass power generation. I understand that most people will be shocked to hear that, so let me explain.

It’s the cleanest. Unlike coal—which generates millions of tons of pollutants that need to be buried or are dumped into the air—a large nuclear power plant only turns out waste that can be measured in cubic yards.

It’s the cheapest. Of course, this is something that’s very hard to determine since the nuclear industry is burdened with so many counterproductive regulations, controls, and requirements. But uranium itself amounts to less than 5% of the overall cost of running a nuclear plant. In a free market—which we don’t have—nuclear would be, by far, the cheapest type of mass power generation.

And it’s the safest. Notwithstanding what happened at Chernobyl—which failed because of backward and shoddy Soviet technology, or Fukushima, which had literally a one in a million chance of occurring—nobody has ever died of because of nuclear power. But many thousands of people die every year from the pollution caused by burning coal. And when a dam producing hydropower collapses, typically thousands of people die. There are risks and costs to absolutely everything.

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Until Something Breaks, by Bill Bonner

And assuredly, something will break. From Bill Bonner at bonnerprivateresearch.com:

No magic… no genius… and no common sense

 
 

Bill Bonner, reckoning today from Baltimore, Maryland…

 

Last week came more evidence that inflation is not going away. Today, we explain why. MarketWatch:

In data released Friday, U.S. producer prices rose 0.3% in November versus the 0.2% median forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The increase in producer prices over the past 12 months slowed to 7.4% from 8.1% in the prior month, and was down from a 11.7% peak in March.

The report, which came in above expectations, indicated that there’s less moderation in price pressures than analysts had expected for last month.

Foretelling much worse inflation sometime in the future, prices for finished consumer goods actually went up at a 16% rate – the highest in 48 years.

Three Major Busts

But that’s the trouble with a ‘sea of lies;’ it inevitably gets stormy. Ships run aground. 

The Fed gave out the lie that it could manipulate the economy and make us all richer. It claimed to be “smoothing” the economic cycle. No more bubbles. No more busts.

But thanks to the Fed, we’ve seen 3 major bubbles in the last 22 years. And three major busts. We’re still in the 3rd one. 

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There’s No Bottom Until Frenzied Speculation Turns to Dust, by Charles Hugh Smith

At a true stock market bottom, nobody even wants to hear the words “stock market.” As Charles Hugh Smith points out, thanks to central bank intervention we haven’t had an organic stock market bottom for decades. From Smith at oftwominds.com:

Only when speculative sizzle attracts no buyers / marks will the bottom be in.

There hasn’t been a truly organic bottom in stocks in decades. Fifteen years of relentless central bank manipulation since the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown has persuaded punters that central banks will always save us should the market turn down because relentless central bank suppression of interest rates and expansion of liquidity (a.k.a. free money for financiers) are now necessary and thus predictably permanent.

Central banks have rescued punters from every market drop. This has pushed moral hazard to near-infinity: since we know the Fed et al. will rescue us, no matter how stupid or venal or risky our bets, then why not increase the leverage, risk and fraud at every turn?

Indeed, why not? With the central banks providing a permanent backstop, it would be foolish not to increase the size and risk of every bet.

Given this central bank-enforced supremacy of moral hazard, the only possible consequence has been the rise of speculation to truly dizzying heights, extremes of leverage and risk that are completely decoupled from the real-world economy.

In this Fed-managed fun house, cryptocurrencies started as jokes became worth billions of dollars–and despite a complete lack of utility, past present or future, these are still worth tens of billions of dollars.

The spectrum of similarly decoupled-from-utility speculations stretches across the entire global financial system. Valuations are based on central bank liquidity rather than real-world metrics such as sales, margins, profits or (gasp) improvements in productivity and real-world utility.

The speculative frenzy boils down to a simple dynamic: Sell the sizzle to a greater fool and pocket the profit. The greater the sizzle, size, leverage and risk, the greater the profits.

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How Blackrock Investment Fund Triggered the Global Energy Crisis, by F. William Engdahl

The current retreat from fossil fuels is not an organic, market-driven change, it is imposed, top-down diktat. Like virtually all such diktat, this is a step backward, and its being supported by corporations and investment houses. From F. William Engdahl at globalresearch.ca:

Most people are bewildered by what is a global energy crisis, with prices for oil, gas and coal simultaneously soaring and even forcing closure of major industrial plants such as chemicals or aluminum or steel. The Biden Administration and EU have insisted that all is because of Putin and Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. This is not the case. The energy crisis is a long-planned strategy of western corporate and political circles to dismantle industrial economies in the name of a dystopian Green Agenda. That has its roots in the period years well before February 2022, when Russia launched its military action in Ukraine.

Blackrock pushes ESG

In January, 2020  on the eve of the economically and socially devastating covid lockdowns, the CEO of the world’s largest investment fund, Larry Fink of Blackrock, issued a letter to Wall Street colleagues and corporate CEOs on the future of investment flows. In the document, modestly titled “A Fundamental Reshaping of Finance”, Fink, who manages the world’s largest investment fund with some $7 trillion then under management, announced a radical departure for corporate investment. Money would “go green.” In his closely-followed 2020 letter Fink declared,

“In the near future – and sooner than most anticipate – there will be a significant re-allocation of capital…Climate risk is investment risk.” Further he stated, “Every government, company, and shareholder must confront climate change.” [i]

In a separate letter to Blackrock investor clients, Fink delivered the new agenda for capital investing. He declared that Blackrock will exit certain high-carbon investments such as coal, the largest source of electricity for the USA and many other countries. He added that Blackrock would screen new investment in oil, gas and coal to determine their adherence to the UN Agenda 2030 “sustainability.”

Fink made clear the world’s largest fund would begin to disinvest in oil, gas and coal.  “Over time,” Fink wrote, “companies and governments that do not respond to stakeholders and address sustainability risks will encounter growing skepticism from the markets, and in turn, a higher cost of capital.” He added that, “Climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects… we are on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance.” [ii]

From that point on the so-called ESG investing, penalizing CO2 emitting companies like ExxonMobil, has become all the fashion among hedge funds and Wall Street banks and investment funds including State Street and Vanguard. Such is the power of Blackrock. Fink was also able to get four new board members in ExxonMobil committed to end the company’s oil and gas business.

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WTF Happened with FTX (Part 1 of 3), by Scott Hill

For those who want to delve more deeply into the sordid tale of FTX. From Scott Hill at bombthrower.com:

(Part 1 of 3 special to Bombthrower by digital asset space analyst Scott Hill)

On November 2nd Coindesk published a leaked balance sheet from FTX affiliated market maker Alameda Research.

Ten days later the third largest Crypto exchange in the world was bankrupt and its founder was under international investigation for fraud.

In this article I’ll go through how Crypto giant FTX fell apart. There is a lot of backstory to this situation which I’ll cover in a following article, discussing the beginnings of Alameda research and the story of how a sketchy hedge fund turned into a major exchange.

As you’ve no doubt heard repeatedly this week, self custody of your Crypto is the safest approach until we know who is insolvent and the extent of the contagion. If you’re not confident with self custody, Coinbase and Kraken seem to be the safest Crypto exchanges, but that is still a counterparty risk that I’m not willing to take personally in these market conditions.

The Balance Sheet Leak

The exclusive scoop from Coindesk looked bad for Alameda Research. The firm, which performed market making on FTX as well as taking directional bets and venture capital investments, seemed insolvent on a realized value basis.

Their balance showed $14.6 billion in assets held against $8 billion in liabilities. On paper solvent on a mark-to-market basis, but digging in there was no way that mark was reasonable.

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The EeeeeVeee “Mandate” From Within . . . by Eric Peters

Mandates are not the hallmark of a profitable business or investment; they are a sign that someone is being forced to do something. From Eric Peters at ericpetersautos.com:

 
 

It’s not just the government that’s “mandating” (don’t you hate that word?) electric vehicles. So are the car companies.

They are “mandating” that their dealers “invest” in EeeeeeeVeeees they don’t want to sell – because they know they are a hard sell – and also the “infrastructure” (meaning, adding – and paying for – high-capacity “fast” charging capability at the dealership) the car companies know dealers must have in order to create the illusion that EeeeeeVeeeees are useful as vehicles rather than vehicles to signal virtue.

The latter amounts to a minimum of several hundreds of thousands of dollars in “investments” – with little prospect of return. Hence the . . . what’s the right word? . . . hesitancy to make these “investments.”

Dealers know – though most won’t say – that few, if any customers are interested in spending any more time at a dealership than they have to. And they don’t have to – or have to, a lot less – if they don’t buy an EeeeeeeVeeee because they don’t have to go to a dealership for a not-so-“fast” charge. And wait there for it. They can stop for less than five minutes for gas – on their way home – and be home much faster.

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Meta Makes Huge Mess Afterhours, Enters my “Imploded Stocks,” after Tech & Social-Media Already Messed up the Day, by Wolf Richter

Maybe tech’s leftist garbage is catching up to it. From Wolf Richter at wolfstreet.com:

Meta shares plunge 19% after hours, for a total plunge of 24% for the day: metaverse woes, online advertising, expenses.

So now, after the mess that Big Tech and Social Media companies made during the day, Meta Platforms is making a huge mess afterhours, after it released its quarterly earnings, with its shares down 19% at the moment, after having already plunged by 5.6% during the day. Combined during regular trading and after-hours trading, shares have plunged 23.8%.

Shares are now trading at $104.78, the lowest since February 2016, down 72% from their high in September 2021 (data via YCharts):

Inducted into my “Imploded Stocks.”

Having plunged by over 70% from the high, Meta now qualifies for, and is thereby officially inducted into my Imploded Stocks. It’s the biggest name in this noble group so far, that started out in the spring of 2021 with just a bunch of crazies, SPACs, and IPOs but has been encompassing ever larger companies since then, in a sign of how the greatest stock market bubble ever started coming unglued beneath the surface in February 2021 and just keeps coming unglued.

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Energy Execs Tell Granholm Shuttered U.S. Oil Refineries Won’t Restart, by Julianne Geiger

What kind of a return would a refinery investment be looking at if the federal government eventually stops the use of the refinery’s raw material? From Julianne Geiger at oilprice.com:

U.S. energy executives told Jennifer Granholm that shuttered crude oil refineries won’t restart, Valero’s Chief Executive Joe Gorder said on Tuesday.

The comments were made to the U.S. Energy Secretary at a recent White House meeting with energy executives, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

“The one interesting thing that came out of it, too, was there was consideration for the ability to restart refining capacity that had been shut down, and  I think the general sentiment was that wasn’t going to happen,” Gorder said.

Limited U.S. refinery capacity—and perhaps more critically, refinery capacity in specific U.S. geographic areas, known as PADDs—has spared worry in the United States over high gasoline prices and energy security.

US refinery run rates were north of 90% for much of the summer, according to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Shuttered refineries unlikely to start back up are the latest nail in the U.S. refinery coffin. In June, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth posited that there would never be another new refinery built in the United States.

“Building a refinery is a multi-billion dollar investment. It may take a decade. We haven’t had a refinery built in the United States since the 1970s. My personal view is that there will never be another refinery built in the United States,” Wirth said at the time.

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