The inevitability of bankruptcy, or something akin to it, comes from the issue: what do you when an entity can’t pay it’s debts. You can only squeeze so hard, and in Illinois’s cases, all the squeezing in the world won’t make much of a dent in its mountain of debt. From Mark Glennon at wirepoints.com:
For Illinois or another state to formally go bankrupt, the United States Congress would have to pass legislation.
Would they? I think so. In fact, bipartisan support is reasonably foreseeable and, ultimately, that legislation is unavoidable, which will trump any debate.
The legal question whether Congress could extend bankruptcy to states was addressed in my earlier article so I won’t rehash that here, except to say I think David Skeel is right. He’s a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania who also serves on Puerto Rico’s oversight board in its bankruptcy-like proceeding authorized by Congress under PROMESA. He wrote firmly that the “constitutionality of bankruptcy-for-states is beyond serious dispute.”
In Congress, reasons will vary for initial political hostility to bankruptcy-for-states.
Some conservatives view state bankruptcy as a form of bailout and will be particularly averse to helping Illinois, which they understandably think deserves its fate. Others may view it as federal intrusion on state sovereignty, which is also what the constitutional objection is about.
But bankruptcy is really the anti-bailout alternative, and turning Illinois around is important to the national economy. We are now a drag on the national economy despite assets that should make us a powerhouse of jobs and production. Illinois GDP has lagged the nation’s significantly for ten years. A federal bailout is happening automatically, at least in a small sense, in the form of food stamps, housing assistance, Medicaid and similar programs. A fresh start for Illinois would reduce its federal tab for those costs and grow Illinois’ tax base for federal revenue.
Respecting state sovereignty, remember Congress would only be offering states the option of using bankruptcy, just as it has already done for municipalities; nothing would be forced on states.
The left will fear the power of bankruptcy to reduce pension payments, but it’s essential to remember the Bankruptcy Code would not be expanded “as is” to states. Changes would be made on which all sides should find common ground.
To continue reading: Would Congress Authorize Bankruptcy for Illinois and Other States? Yes, Inevitably.